Road to Punting Success 2011

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Is there much point to backing debuting Flat horses? I can see why you would take any past info from Bumpers, hurdles-to-chases, PtP to rules, etc. into account for NH horses, but is there much point in trying to back the first-time 2 y.o.? If there is, what would be your pointers? Past performances of sire and/or dam? The yard being known for developing early 2s?

I would like to be more interested in them this year - I love to see babies out first time. Physically I look for strength without being top-heavy or slabby in front (too heavy on the forehand), equally not run up too light with nothing behind. But neither of those conformation obs always translate into finding a winning bet!

Pointers to your spotting techniques would be most welcome!
 
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davidjohnson said:
5- Back more winners. Everyone loves to talk about value, and the theory behind it is obviously correct, but it's winners that put bread on the table.
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Such an important point. Value is the buzz word in gambling for the last couple of years. Everyone is obsessed with pricing up races themselves. While I don't think it's a bad approach I bet if you put 20 people's tissue together they would average out at rough the market offering. I think the key to any race is to find a weak favourite or one you think you can get beat. Invariably that means that on your tissue the field is over priced.
 
davidjohnson said:
3- Don't let it become a chore, if it does, walk away and find something better to spend your time on. Remember why you first got interested into racing? Ensure the game doesn't just become about grinding out a profit. Far easier to study races with a positive outlook.
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Spot on. The whole point of it to me is for punting to be a profitable hobby, something I really enjoy doing that doesn't actually cost me anything. So enjoying the winners and the afterglow after a big one must compensate for all the losers. And it does. Normal people have hobbies that cost them thousands.
 
krizon said:
Is there much point to backing debuting Flat horses? I can see why you would take any past info from Bumpers, hurdles-to-chases, PtP to rules, etc. into account for NH horses, but is there much point in trying to back the first-time 2 y.o.? If there is, what would be your pointers? Past performances of sire and/or dam? The yard being known for developing early 2s?
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I followed the Irish 2yo much closer than any year in 2010 mainly because I was getting a good clue from the Kevin Prendergast yard. 2yo races are priced up on the basis of connections, price tags and whispers. In other words bookmakers do not have a clue. Cassamento for example landed a nice little touch for the stable lads when he won in Tipperary at an 'unfancied' 8/1. Kevin's horses are usually put in around 7/2 - 9/2. Aiden O'Brien's are nearly always favourite.

I could hardly sleep a couple of nights during the summer when I knew we had a live one going the following day. I had my biggest bet of the year on Dunboyne Express @ 7/2 the morning of his maiden. His SP was 7/4. I'm sure there are a few paddock judges on here that could spot one in the ring but for me first time out the market in the morning does the talking.
 
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You clearly haven't joined your local jigsaw or tapestry club, have you, Euro?

BTW, are you likely to get to Lingfield THIS year?????? :lol:
 
Euronymous said:
Spot on. The whole point of it to me is for punting to be a profitable hobby, something I really enjoy doing that doesn't actually cost me anything. So enjoying the winners and the afterglow after a big one must compensate for all the losers. And it does. Normal people have hobbies that cost them thousands.
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There is nothing like paying for something with winnings. I managed to get a laptop for €800 last year after one good run during the summer. There is just no way I would have got the money together any other way but from betting.
 
Mmm. I don't think I could fork out that much after a juicy run, I'd be worried about such a purchase compromising the punting tank. I did buy myself a nice pair of Adidas Originals after Pandorama's Lexus though.

I will really try and get to Lingfield this year Kri. Promise.
 
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I tend to specialise in maiden, beginners', novice and bumper races. Why? There is less form to analyse.
 
krizon said:
OTB - I imagine that 12/1 ew on PRIMA VISTA paid for the day all right! Now, bear with me, 'cos I'm a total zero-brain at maths, but why would you back 10/11? What's in it for anyone at those sort of odds? As a virtual non-punter, I've never understood (as in, comprehended the maths or the benefits) betting on Evens or those huge 'against' figures. There has to be a reason, as serious punters are far from nutters, so what's in it?
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I would never be afraid of backing odds on on the right horse K. Imperial Commander at 10/11 in the Betfair earlier this year being a prime example of an odds on shot that was worth the investment. My record backing odds on shots isn't great though (mikhael d'haguenet being the most recent burning over Christmas) so I thread carefully! Like G 2 yo maidens are a decent betting medium. I go flat racing very often so a combination of looks, pedigree, stable gossip and the Market is what would inform my decision to back one or not. I like a decent sized athletic looking 2 yo who looks well prepared and looks like he has been away from home before!! Any males with their bits on display are a complete no no !!
 
Euronymous said:
Mmm. I don't think I could fork out that much after a juicy run, I'd be worried about such a purchase compromising the punting tank. .
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Something I found out to my ruin in 2009. I won about 3 grand on Dubai World Cup night and ended up pissing most of it away on nonsense and come June, I was skint. It was also this experience which prompted me to having separate bank accounts, it's easier to see when you've got too much money or too little money in one part of your life.

It is however to reward yourself from wins. 2010 was my best punting year in years and funded a few holidays and a laptop but I've had to keep myself in check to ensure I continue to have a healthy bank for punting.
 
Also, if you do think you're going to win long-term, your accounts are going to get closed or restricted too. I very rarely bet in my own name, if you're having a good run, always have someone lined up so you can bet in their name or start a shop punting routine.
 
davidjohnson said:
1- Specialise, and watch those races you are specialising in very closely. It is still possible to spot things that the vast majority, or most importantly the market doesn't. Various ways to specialise, hurdlers, chasers, trips, 2-y-os, all-weather etc. But have sound reasoning for choosing that particular code.


I believe the only specialising that should be done would be the absolute avoidance of lower grade races, especially handicaps! The bottom end is full of rogues and squiggles and that's not just the horses!! I think the more you can keep up to reasonable speed on racing generally the more positive betting opportunities you will have. I also strongly believe in listening to as many people you respect as possible (several on here) as they may see something you haven't!
Never be afraid to have an opinion, even a very strong one - but be prepared to blame you're own bad judgement and let it go! I have been guilty in the past of wasting money on bets trying to prove an original opinion I had was correct when it clearly was not. Laugh at your stupidity - learn and move on. Think I'm just managing to do that now.
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I was 100% behind each way singles as the best betting medium but I did toy with the idea that I could make more of a profit in the long run if I adjusted say my €25 e/w bets to a €40 win bet. Does anyone have any opinion on this? I'm going to test it on the horse racing bets I had on my Bet365 account over the last six months of last year.
 
On The Bridle said:
Also strictly no double, trebles etc. That's what the lottery is for!
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I disagree, if there are two or three in a day that are definitely the wrong price, then go for it. Not something to play regularly but certainly worth doing when prices are right. Don't need many to cop to make a profit.

Also, some shops in London do 4x Odds for 1 winner in a lucky 15, you'd struggle not to win with that concession!
 
If you have a couple of fancied runners what is the best way to play them in a multiple? I'm a fan of the each-wat trixie myself. I managed to cop one (€12.50 e/w trixie) for €540 (2 winner 3 places) in a €900 winning day in November. I had each doubles and singles as well. That got me out of a right hole as it was the Monday after I fell more than €1,500 behind in the my challenge with Barry.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I disagree, if there are two or three in a day that are definitely the wrong price, then go for it. Not something to play regularly but certainly worth doing when prices are right. Don't need many to cop to make a profit.

Also, some shops in London do 4x Odds for 1 winner in a lucky 15, you'd struggle not to win with that concession!
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Gearoid said:
If you have a couple of fancied runners what is the best way to play them in a multiple? I'm a fan of the each-wat trixie myself. I managed to cop one (€12.50 e/w trixie) for €540 (2 winner 3 places) in a €900 winning day in November. I had each doubles and singles as well. That got me out of a right hole as it was the Monday after I fell more than €1,500 behind in the my challenge with Barry.
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Have your bet on the first - if it wins keep a small profit and roll up the winnings - consistently doing multiple bets is a killer on profits and your betting confidence.
4x odds one winner L15's to me tend to lead you to longer priced horses that you would not normally back. The amount of wasted stakes if your first, second selection doesn't win. I would love to see a breakdown of bookmakers profits on these bets - huge I would think. When Im having a bad run I sometimes lurch towards multiples which doesn't help the mood!
There is the very odd day that you would consider backing more than two horses anyway no?
 
You mathematically would find it very hard to lose betting 4x odds on one winner EW Lucky 15s. I just can never be bothered to go to the shop to do them as they're only available in very competitive areas.
 
I think 3 fancies in a day is reasonable. I like the each way trixie especially with guaranteed odds.
 
Another point we've not touched on; Best Odds Guaranteed is very important. I backed a 40/1 winner at Southwell the other week that ended up going off 66/1 and I wasn't on at BOG. I topped up at the 66s at the off but I was nonetheless furious about the missed revenue.

Really adds up if you back big priced drifters that oblige.
 
Sportingbet, Stan James, Betpack, Skybet and Victor Chandler are 5 accounts I would not dream of betting with unless they are a stand out price on a horse that is going to be smashed up in the betting. Otherwise you are setting fire to money. Which firms besides Powers and Hills guarante multiples?
 
Each time you bet you are fighting against the odds. If we assume an average overround for the bookies of say 110% on each race, then in the long run the punters are recouping only 90% of their outlay.

When you bet doubles, however, that percentage drops to 81% (0.9*0.9=0.81) and 73% (0.9*0.9*0.9=.729) in the case of a trebles.

In other words, bookies love multiple bets because the profit margins are much higher for them. That doesn't stop me from having the occasional double or yankee as the mood takes me, because sometimes I like the prospect of a decent return for a small outlay, especially if the same bookie happens to be offering the best prices about each of the horses I'm backing, but it probably should.
 
Thanks, OTB. It's very interesting to read of people's strategies and theories, and what has worked best for them - or worst.

Have to say that of all the trainers who've ever given us a wink at the courses, not one single blighter has won! But when you ask them if their 12-1 shot was expected to win, oh yes, all at the yard have been on!
 
I use a moneybooker account for gambling. Its very good, 'free', easy to set up, its better than another bank account.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Another point we've not touched on; Best Odds Guaranteed is very important. I backed a 40/1 winner at Southwell the other week that ended up going off 66/1 and I wasn't on at BOG. I topped up at the 66s at the off but I was nonetheless furious about the missed revenue.

Really adds up if you back big priced drifters that oblige.
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Disagree. If by nice coincidence you put a bet on with a BOG firm, all well and good, but if you are backing at a price that is already big enough to be worthwhile, take the best price available rather than slightly shorter with BOG guaranteed firm just in case it drifts. Chances are if you're right it won't drift. If you are backing winners at 40's and being 'furious' at not getting 66's, you'll do well to be happy with whatever profits you make from betting.
 
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