Road to Punting Success 2011

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Steve T said:
What are opinions on the 'stats' bets available daily? Distances in particular interest me - looking at the type of races, going, market shape to each race on the card, jockey on the likely winners, likely style of race etc. etc.

I like them, but is it all too much effort for a 7/4 - 9/4 winner?
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Used to play distances with spread betting firms years ago -I reckon they are deadly accurate and unless you have a strong fancy for a horse winning by a big margin it's hard to make it pay.
 
4:20 Southwell

Thought I'd have a go and hopefully wont look too silly

The first mark is what I’ve calculated they ran to their best in one of their last two races – the second mark is their O/R.


Govener General 62+ Ling 7f – 59 – Good chance if handling the surface – could be upwards of 3lb well in.

Raith Meave 57 South 7f – 57 – May have a small improvement in him.

Ridgeway Hawk 57 South 6f – 57 – I think his mark is as good as he is for now.

Cinq Heavens 60+ Wolve 7f – 55- should improve for his first run – depends on how he handles the surface could 5lb well in but may need 6f?

Ace Master 50 – South 1m – 51 – His mark is as good as he looks for now.

William Wainwright 53 Wolve 7f – 49 – quietly consistent and on a nice mark but I think 6f is his trip.

Jay Jays Joy 51+ South 6f – 49 proven on surface and distance could be ideal improved quite a lot from penultimate run to last run. Big chance if showing same improvement.

Come On Eileen 40 South 7f – 45 – No form to go on as she’s tailed off on all four runs but she’s with a canny trainer so wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if she ran well.
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I think Jay Jays Joy will be spot on today and looks to be improving fast – hit a flat spot L/T/O but I expect him to come late and knick it by 3/4L with Govenor General & Cinq Heavens for the places.
 
LUKE said:
Used to play distances with spread betting firms years ago -I reckon they are deadly accurate and unless you have a strong fancy for a horse winning by a big margin it's hard to make it pay.
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That's something I forgot to mention in my initial analysis - the current spread quote. You'd probably be surprised at the number of times, especially over the jumps, that you could bet at or under the 'buy' spread on the fixed odds markets.

E.g The spread quote is 39-42 and the 3 way market is priced up:
under 22 13/8
22-41 6/4
over 41 7/4.

Giving the spread boys the credit for their work surely points you in the direction of over 41 here?

There are definitley courses for and against though. Southwell is the 'overs' player's dream at the moment and Lingfield inevitabley under, middle at best. But you do have to be selvetive, looking at tomorrows card at Lingfield for example:

1.45 - Apprentice Seller... The favourite is stepping up in trip to 12f for the first time, but his style of running would suggest he'll be played late anyway. Baroldine likely also to conform to Lingfield type by making a challenge after turning in and it's this that seems to hold the Lingfield distances down. Prediction - less than 1 Length.

2.20 - 7f handicap.. Competitive, probably bet 3/1 the field, Cwmni is interesting as should run a decent race off this mark if repeating the effort over CD last time. Should get a nice run round behind Tudor Prince & Simple Rhythm and even if not winning may be closing on the leaders toward the end. < 1L.

2.55 - 7f seller.. A mix of pace and finishers here, the key is judging how far the finisher will get ahead by the line - I'd fancy it to be Frequency or Rubenstar. < 2L.

3.30 - 1m2f Maiden.. Odds on fav against one that might benefit from the longer trip, impossible to know, but the way Caravan Rolls On might stay on might either upset the favourite or shrink it's winning margin. < 2L.

4.05 - 1m5f Handicap.. Alternative choice I fancy here to be staying on at the end after dropping back in trip, as long as it's not staying on by scampering away from the field! < 1.5L.

4.40 - 6f Maiden.. Hardest race of the day for me - if MR decides to make the pace and the others don't catch him it could be 6, what are Chipmunks obejectives, 3rd run syndrome or ready to go, jockey booking seems to indicate it might be ready to go... Tough call. 2-4L

5.10 - 1m Handicap.. Favourite up 15lb for a recent hatrick, but has been winning cosily. 2nd fav likely to stalk and hope to close late on, Foxtrot been emptying over 7f, upto a mile here, Highlife yard going well, could be biggest danger to the fav. < 2L.

So, we have a band of 11.5 - 13.5. I'd expect bookmakers to go something like:

Under 10.5 7/4
10.5-14 6/4
14+ 13/8.

There's usually value to be had on the distance totals or prices if you shop around - today Hills were 9/4 over 43L at Ffos las and others 7/4 over 47L!

We shall have a look tomorrow and see if we can't dig out some value.
 
Two months in to 2011 and things have been ticking along nicely... nice profit on the sheets....up until today when I went about putting the finishing touches to my Cheltenham ante-post bets and find I am restricted to buttons on both Stan James and Bet365 :mad::mad: How is everybody else doing so far this year???
 
One step forward,one step back.Have no original thoughts about Cheltenham,starting to fantasise about Dundalk on a Friday night.
 
LUKE said:
One step forward,one step back.Have no original thoughts about Cheltenham,starting to fantasise about Dundalk on a Friday night.
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Ive got a semi thinkin about it already. Roll on Cheltenham, then its full steam ahead for the flat.
 
Having a fantastic Jumps season but can't help feeling I'll be giving a fair slice of it back at Cheltenham it's so competitive.
 
On The Bridle said:
Two months in to 2011 and things have been ticking along nicely... nice profit on the sheets....up until today when I went about putting the finishing touches to my Cheltenham ante-post bets and find I am restricted to buttons on both Stan James and Bet365 :mad::mad: How is everybody else doing so far this year???
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I'm not a big punter at all but even I've been restricted by Stan James, and I remember Shadow Leader referring to the latter outfit as Bet £3.65.
 
Precisely - both hopeless, gutless firms. Although in their defence, Sid James are at least letting me have tenners on again.........
 
Shadow Leader said:
Precisely - both hopeless, gutless firms. Although in their defence, Sid James are at least letting me have tenners on again.........
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Stan James are a joke outfit now, they won't even lay a bet over the phone.

365 to be fair, aren't all that bad, they do lay some lumpy bets but they just aren't interested in laying anyone who works in the industry and are very hot on IP addresses etc.

I'm going back to having more business in shops and over the phone now, getting on online is nearly impossible these days.
 
Shoots -6 under to get to there as well, clown. Its just as easy to shoot -7 as -6, i reckon his accent costs him a shot per round...

I backed Charl Scwartzal ew at 50/1. Second after day one and third after day two, shocking run on day three and a 69 yesterday leaving him around T14. A good third round and he would have been there abouts for the placings.

Backed Aupcharlie the last twice, believed the hype about the Mullins horse and abandoned him yesterday and he duely obliges.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Stan James are a joke outfit now, they won't even lay a bet over the phone.

365 to be fair, aren't all that bad, they do lay some lumpy bets but they just aren't interested in laying anyone who works in the industry and are very hot on IP addresses etc.

I'm going back to having more business in shops and over the phone now, getting on online is nearly impossible these days.
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Most firms run by accountants these days - would sooner have the steady 100k a day income of poker, gaming etc. than have any risk attached to laying bets and say winning 900k one day and losing 400k the next for example.

Sad state of affairs the industry is in and as you say they're all scared of laying bets.
 
My mate is an independent and he says he cant make any money at all. He layed 2500 on a horse at 9/2 (A few bets, not one stake, average price) and it got beat, so he had a great start to the day, then a lucky 15 takes him for 2300, another for 2700, and a Lucky 63 starts to make him sweat, first four up, 12/1 8/1 and two others, going on to two fancied horses, 3/1 and 4/1 respectively, over 200k liability, his max payout is 100k though, but it would have been lights out for him. Both were beaten, but he was a stressed man all day!! Still another hefty payout, im not sure what it was, 5k maybe but i cant remember.

I tell him he must be the most unlucky man alive, because i cant get ahead punting this last 6 months and not many i know can either.
 
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