Road to Punting Success 2011

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gearoid
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I've sent a good few people the spreadsheet. Any feedback on what's good or not good about it? I'm never shy for tweaking things. How could it be made better?
 
Gearoid said:
I've sent a good few people the spreadsheet. Any feedback on what's good or not good about it? I'm never shy for tweaking things. How could it be made better?
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More winners being entered into it!! Suits me fine. I keep a weekly written record also - difficult to take out a laptop with two kids under 3 1/2 tearing around the place!
 
Will said:
I use a moneybooker account for gambling. Its very good, 'free', easy to set up, its better than another bank account.
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I've signed up for an account. How long does it typically take for the money to hit your Moneybrooker account after you withdraw from a bookmaker? Do you have to say "yes" when you're asked if the money you're taking from your bank account is going to be for 'gaming'?
 
Gearoid said:
I've signed up for an account. How long does it typically take for the money to hit your Moneybrooker account after you withdraw from a bookmaker? Do you have to say "yes" when you're asked if the money you're taking from your bank account is going to be for 'gaming'?
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How do you go about doing this and what exactly is a moneybooker account?
 
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Id like to set it up so that the money comes from other peoples accounts, but all withdrawels return to mine...Is this possible? If not, why not...
 
Moneybooker account, normally same day, some bookies same hour. Deposits are instant, withdrawals- some within an hr, some takes longer. Skybet, Bluesq, betfred same day, pinny the same. VC, betfair and a few others are next day jobs.
 
There are fees for Visa withdrawals though are there not? I'd rather not pay to get my money back..
 
Will said:
Moneybooker account, normally same day, some bookies same hour. Deposits are instant, withdrawals- some within an hr, some takes longer. Skybet, Bluesq, betfred same day, pinny the same. VC, betfair and a few others are next day jobs.
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Thanks Will. How long does it take to get money back into your bank account or should I get a pre paid card?
 
Gamla Stan said:
At the prices, I've had to have a small EW bet on Beseech in the 2.30 at 16s with Stan James. I had her at 8s on the basis she should handle the surface given her pedigree and there's not much speed in the race and she looks a plodder who should like Southwell.
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We giving this project another go today in the 2.50 Southwell? Race looks much worse than lto and basement mark of 45. Effort this day best ignored with Nanna Hansen looking like a Swedish grandma at the start. Cathy Gannon back on today and at least Beseech has yet to confirm fully she's next to useless. Something most of her rivals have already done. I mean come on, Yossi is favourite!
 
davidjohnson said:
We giving this project another go today in the 2.50 Southwell? Race looks much worse than lto and basement mark of 45. Effort this day best ignored with Nanna Hansen looking like a Swedish grandma at the start. Cathy Gannon back on today and at least Beseech has yet to confirm fully she's next to useless. Something most of her rivals have already done. I mean come on, Yossi is favourite!
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Hadn't noticed it to be honest or I'd have asked Julia. Now you've brought it to my attention, I've had to dabble at 16s.
 
There's a 2m race at the end of March back at Southwll 45-60 that looks the race to target. Possibly go up to a mile and three quarters at Wolverhampton in early March prior to that would be my thinking. Certainly a little tryer the way she stuck on there.
 
Watching Kempton and playing on Betfair for the last 2 nights I wonder is some of the racing so bad that nobody really knows.I get the feeling that the Betfair market is just made up of traders and compulsive gamblers battling each other.
The American guy on atr who does stateside always says you just can't depend on $3000 claimers -is it the same for 1800 handicappers.
 
Has anyone ever seen any research that proves the theory that lower-grade horses are less consistent than higher-rated rivals, or is it just another old wives tale that gets passed from generation to generation. It's illogical for a trait like consistency to be related to ability. Would be genuinely interested to knock if there's any reading on this subject.
 
LUKE said:
Watching Kempton and playing on Betfair for the last 2 nights I wonder is some of the racing so bad that nobody really knows.I get the feeling that the Betfair market is just made up of traders and compulsive gamblers battling each other.
The American guy on atr who does stateside always says you just can't depend on $3000 claimers -is it the same for 1800 handicappers.
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Same with lower grade handicaps here Luke, you cannot bet with any confidence in them - they should be avoided like the plague - looking back on bets I've struck on these races on "information" the results are appalling - the connections themselves don't know what frame of mind their animal is going to turn up in never mind what the others have up their sleeves. Ruinous.
 
davidjohnson said:
Has anyone ever seen any research that proves the theory that lower-grade horses are less consistent than higher-rated rivals, or is it just another old wives tale that gets passed from generation to generation. It's illogical for a trait like consistency to be related to ability. Would be genuinely interested to knock if there's any reading on this subject.
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They are lower grade for the simple reason that they run more shite races than better animals???:p Thats the science!!
 
But horses are measured on the level of their ability, rather than the standard deviation of their performances.

DJ,

How about this. Pick 60 horses. All horses must have run at least 13 times. Ignore their first 3 runs.

Pot 1 contains horses with an average RPR (runs 4-13) of between 50 and 60.

Pot 2 contains horses with an average RPR of between 65 and 75.

Pot 3 contains horses with an average RPR of between 80 and 90.

Work out the standard deviation of the RPR's of each pot. Do a statistical test to assess whether there is a statistically significant difference between SD1, SD2 and SD3.

I might have time to do that when I am in Budapest on business next week if the internet connection is good enough.
 
I might need to make sure that there is an even spread of distances in each pot. As if Pot 1 are all stayers and pot 3 are all sprinters, any difference in SD might be explained by the distances.

In fact, if I get the right population of horses, I will be able to answer the question as to whether sprinters are more consistent than stayers.

The joy!
 
Lower grade horses don't get to pick and choose their races the way the better horses can. In Ireland, at least, the lowest class horses have to run the gauntlet of balloting, and basically they run in any race they can get into, (almost) regardless of track, trip or going. Also, for the same reason, there's not much point preparing a lower class horse for a specific race or mapping out a specific programme for them. It's inevitable that they will end up running a lot of the time in races which will not suit, and for this reason alone their form will look inconsistent.
 
davidjohnson said:
Not sure. This is probably more Prufrock's field than mine, but how about performance rating in handicaps compared to expected level i.e master rating.
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this is a bit like the RP trainer rating..Run To Form..on paper it looks a good idea..a horse has to run within 5 lbs of its best to keep a decent rating going

but its been pointed out that the RTF is disadvantagous for trainers who have a lot of lower grade horses..as they don't run to form as much as horses from better stables..this is reflected by the fact that a lower trainer can be getting plenty of winners..but has plenty that get beat in between..and so his RTF never rises above a certain level..no matter how good his form is
 
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