Road to Royal Ascot, 2023
- Thread starter an capall
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I feel for you Euro.i thought they had spoilt its chance by winning last time.
Favourite may well hack up in the Queen’s Vase but I’ll take an each way chance on Etna Rosso. I remember reading before that it’s rare for Joseph to have a first time winner and to follow them when they do so I’ll chance that as well as a win bet on his dad’s Peking Opera as well. Good luck all.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Great Frankie ride there.
G-G
Senior Jockey
I was tempted to take that bet as well if I could have found it - just as well!
Fair 5th @33/1.
Fair play to Mick Appelby he doesn’t send them if they don’t have a chance. He had a 50/1 3rd in the King’s Stand yesterday as well.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Big Ev's grand dam is Queen's Logic, a Queen Mary winner.
chaumi
Rookie
and sire Blue Point. You could say the writing was (potentially) on the wall.
I was surprised how low she was on BF just before the start, 30 best that I could see, but assume there were bigger numbers available earlier.
Desert Orchid
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Friday 3.40 - Al Nafir 9/2 BOG - I'll be mob-handed in this race but I'm covering all my bets with this one. He's a half-brother to Ghaiyyath who was already a 126 horse by this stage and who went on to be a 131+. 12f stretched Ghaiyyath but Al Nafir has already won at this trip and holds an entry over another 2f in a big handicap at the July meeting so he might be targeting the Ebor and there has to be a chance he’s a 120+ horse waiting to happen. He's off 100. He reminds me of the operation’s Rare Rhythm who turned up after a year off and won this race off 97 before ending up on 115 at the end of the season. I can see the price halving despite the big field.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Frankie and Saga are at it again.....he really shouldn't ride that horse he has nothing but bad luck. 9 day ban was justified though.
Only one thing crazier than backing the inexperienced Al Asifah at such a short price 8/13 is backing something to beat her.
I doubt if the odds on punters will have a moments worry.
I've always been a Coltrane fan but he is no Yates and clearly he can be beaten
Eldar Eldarov 9/2 looked like he was just starting to get going in the Yorkshire Cup and this trip could be exactly what he needs so I will row in with him.
Desert Hero 25/1 William Haggas for the King will outrun his odds.........worth a fiver EW
Only one thing crazier than backing the inexperienced Al Asifah at such a short price 8/13 is backing something to beat her.
I doubt if the odds on punters will have a moments worry.
I've always been a Coltrane fan but he is no Yates and clearly he can be beaten
Eldar Eldarov 9/2 looked like he was just starting to get going in the Yorkshire Cup and this trip could be exactly what he needs so I will row in with him.
Desert Hero 25/1 William Haggas for the King will outrun his odds.........worth a fiver EW
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Jim Crowley has lost in this race before riding the best horse - in a smaller field.
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14:30 - Can let the favourite win at that price. Second and third from its Listed win at Sandown both well beaten in the Windsor Castle today. Two I’ll take against the favourite will be No Nay Mets who’s trainer had the winner of the Queen Mary today and His Majesty who won a Listed race on debut then was a close 3rd behind Givemethebeatboys at the Curragh. The second that day Noche Magica should also go close tomorrow and I’ll back it also if it drifts.
16:20 - All about Subjectivist in this for me. Great run in the Dubai Gold Cup and I’ll bet him each way to try and make all from the front tomorrow.
16:20 - All about Subjectivist in this for me. Great run in the Dubai Gold Cup and I’ll bet him each way to try and make all from the front tomorrow.
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Desert Orchid
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I do think Al Asifah is a good thing but she's not my kind of price. I've taken 6/1 Warm Heart in the market without the fav.
Desert Orchid
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Just killing time, I've had a look at the sectional analysis of the SJP at the ATR site.
It looks very much like Frankie has made a total arse of the pace. I'm not suggesting for a nano-second it cost him the race because Paddington was never really far behind him but it probably meant the winning margin was exaggerated a little:
It looks very much like Frankie has made a total arse of the pace. I'm not suggesting for a nano-second it cost him the race because Paddington was never really far behind him but it probably meant the winning margin was exaggerated a little:
Frankel
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Inspiral is the one that got away. Mark up for sure. That said, the winner was excitable early doors.
Desert Orchid
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I'm not so sure, Frankel. A 100% finish sounds about right for Ascot and the colour graphic appears to suggest an even pace:
barjon
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Gosden’s comments:
Inspiral. She switched off and did everything right. The first two are very nice horses and there were a lot of nice ones behind them. I'm happy with her and we'll look at races like the Sussex Stakes and Jacques le Marois, which she won at Deauville last year. She's back on song, which is the main thing. She starts slowly a bit, but that's her style and she doesn't want to break on the lead. She came to win her race, got in front, and just got caught on the line. It was a very nice run for the first back this year and she'll come on for that. It's not often you come into a Group 1 and say that, but she will and she's back to her best and run a lovely race - John Gosden, joint-trainer.
Inspiral. She switched off and did everything right. The first two are very nice horses and there were a lot of nice ones behind them. I'm happy with her and we'll look at races like the Sussex Stakes and Jacques le Marois, which she won at Deauville last year. She's back on song, which is the main thing. She starts slowly a bit, but that's her style and she doesn't want to break on the lead. She came to win her race, got in front, and just got caught on the line. It was a very nice run for the first back this year and she'll come on for that. It's not often you come into a Group 1 and say that, but she will and she's back to her best and run a lovely race - John Gosden, joint-trainer.
Desert Orchid
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Thursday's thoughts (again, written on Tuesday with prices as they were then):
2.30 - Given the way O’Brien’s are running His Majesty (16/1 taken) is probably worth taking now. Between the name, the occasion and the stable form, the chances are a public gamble will develop. I’ll have a pop at one or two longshots for fun nearer the off.
3.05 - I did do the ratings for this but they’re largely very close to the ORs so I decided to order the race by RPRs to see if they threw up any value. I’ve coloured the top ten (one’s a reserve) in green and will back anything at 20s or longer (win only), along with Cloudbreaker and Sisyphus Strength and cover them with Bertinelli which I have top rated (with +p) along with Struth (p), Mr Mistoffelees (+?), Land Legend (p) and Inquiring Minds (p). The E column shows Group entries. They’re either the St Legers or Irish Oaks.
3.40 - I’ve ordered these by RPR with my own figures to compare with the higher rated ones. Al Asifah (10/11) probably should be shorter than she is. She didn’t beat much last time but beat them by a long way. The overall time was slow but the later sections were fast so she was sprinting away from opponents that were also quickening. All that said, the others haven’t been beating anything that is much better either. She probably has a 120+ in her locker and that should be too much for the opposition to cope with. Warm Heart is probably second best. If I can get about 7/1 without the favourite I’ll probably take that (got 6/1). She’s presumably better than Red Riding Hood who is not far off second in the table. Likewise Lumiere Rock at around 11/1 without the favourite.
4.20 - This has the potential to be one of the better Gold Cups in terms of strength in depth. Trueshan (20/1) has to be a bet at the price. I read recently that they felt they’d got to the bottom of whatever was stopping him from showing his very best form. Winning the Northumberland Plate off 120 was no mean feat. I’m not sure I would back any of the rest of this field to win it off their current mark. Subjectivist was a decent and improving winner two years ago before being injured. I can’t see them running him here unless they believe he’s back, so he’s a bet too (10/1). Charlie Appleby apparently has always thought Yibir likely to handle this race but will he improve for stepping up in trip? The same goes for Eldar Eldarov. I’ll stick with the top two against the field and hope for the best. They dutch at around 13/2.
5.00 - The same situation applies here as for the KGV so I’m thinking along the lines of RPRs, odds, draws, Group race entries (E) and trends. Certain trainers actively target this race and ratings might be meaningless regarding the likes of the Godolphins. I reckon low-middle* draws are best although drying ground might negate what looked an advantage on Tuesday. I’ve backed Carracci (20/1) and Mustajaab (40/1) at the prices and will do a couple more on the day. [*Misinterpreted the draw - was meant to refer to centre-near-side.]
5.35 - Caernarfon’s Oaks form stands out and 11/1 is a very big price assuming she’s over those exertions. The other one I like is Bold Act (15/2), representing the London Gold Cup form. My outsider is Tony Montana (33/1), bred in the purple and likely to be a big improver this season. On his debut last season he split two horses now rated in the high 90s and the winner is only 6/1 for the Ribblesdale. Those three against the field will do me.
6.10 - This is another hugely competitive heat, chock full of jobs. I’m going to play it simple, go with overall form and back anything that can hit 124 on the scale. This gives a list of Cruyff Turn (50/1) (if it gets in, which is unlikely), Accidental Agent (50/1), Toimy Son (50/1), Documenting (40/1), Rhoscolyn (33/1) and Star Of Orion (Res, 25/1). They’re all ‘working men’s prices’ so I can back them all.
2.30 - Given the way O’Brien’s are running His Majesty (16/1 taken) is probably worth taking now. Between the name, the occasion and the stable form, the chances are a public gamble will develop. I’ll have a pop at one or two longshots for fun nearer the off.
3.05 - I did do the ratings for this but they’re largely very close to the ORs so I decided to order the race by RPRs to see if they threw up any value. I’ve coloured the top ten (one’s a reserve) in green and will back anything at 20s or longer (win only), along with Cloudbreaker and Sisyphus Strength and cover them with Bertinelli which I have top rated (with +p) along with Struth (p), Mr Mistoffelees (+?), Land Legend (p) and Inquiring Minds (p). The E column shows Group entries. They’re either the St Legers or Irish Oaks.
3.40 - I’ve ordered these by RPR with my own figures to compare with the higher rated ones. Al Asifah (10/11) probably should be shorter than she is. She didn’t beat much last time but beat them by a long way. The overall time was slow but the later sections were fast so she was sprinting away from opponents that were also quickening. All that said, the others haven’t been beating anything that is much better either. She probably has a 120+ in her locker and that should be too much for the opposition to cope with. Warm Heart is probably second best. If I can get about 7/1 without the favourite I’ll probably take that (got 6/1). She’s presumably better than Red Riding Hood who is not far off second in the table. Likewise Lumiere Rock at around 11/1 without the favourite.
4.20 - This has the potential to be one of the better Gold Cups in terms of strength in depth. Trueshan (20/1) has to be a bet at the price. I read recently that they felt they’d got to the bottom of whatever was stopping him from showing his very best form. Winning the Northumberland Plate off 120 was no mean feat. I’m not sure I would back any of the rest of this field to win it off their current mark. Subjectivist was a decent and improving winner two years ago before being injured. I can’t see them running him here unless they believe he’s back, so he’s a bet too (10/1). Charlie Appleby apparently has always thought Yibir likely to handle this race but will he improve for stepping up in trip? The same goes for Eldar Eldarov. I’ll stick with the top two against the field and hope for the best. They dutch at around 13/2.
5.00 - The same situation applies here as for the KGV so I’m thinking along the lines of RPRs, odds, draws, Group race entries (E) and trends. Certain trainers actively target this race and ratings might be meaningless regarding the likes of the Godolphins. I reckon low-middle* draws are best although drying ground might negate what looked an advantage on Tuesday. I’ve backed Carracci (20/1) and Mustajaab (40/1) at the prices and will do a couple more on the day. [*Misinterpreted the draw - was meant to refer to centre-near-side.]
5.35 - Caernarfon’s Oaks form stands out and 11/1 is a very big price assuming she’s over those exertions. The other one I like is Bold Act (15/2), representing the London Gold Cup form. My outsider is Tony Montana (33/1), bred in the purple and likely to be a big improver this season. On his debut last season he split two horses now rated in the high 90s and the winner is only 6/1 for the Ribblesdale. Those three against the field will do me.
6.10 - This is another hugely competitive heat, chock full of jobs. I’m going to play it simple, go with overall form and back anything that can hit 124 on the scale. This gives a list of Cruyff Turn (50/1) (if it gets in, which is unlikely), Accidental Agent (50/1), Toimy Son (50/1), Documenting (40/1), Rhoscolyn (33/1) and Star Of Orion (Res, 25/1). They’re all ‘working men’s prices’ so I can back them all.
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Agree he looks the business and Joe Fanning has few peers at judging pace.
With everything in his favour, I make him my bet of the day.
9/1 B365
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That's 4 of us on him Reet,hope he can carry the weight.
Frankel
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Look where she has come from in relation to the winner. Nothing has got in to it from off the pace bar Inspiral. He has had to use her up to get there but unsurprisingly couldn't see it through. If he's sat closer then she wins.