Today's thoughts, again written on Monday with prices as they were then. The only edits are re Al Agaila in the fillies' handicap and Dual Identity in the Hunt Cup.
2.30 - As with Tuesday’s 2yo race, I haven’t studied any form and ordered them by RPR to see if any betting anomalies stick out. I’ve backed Balsam at 16/1, 5 places. I’m probably putting two and two together and coming up with five, but I have to wonder why Coolmore/Aiden O’Brien aren’t represented in a field of 28 and why Moore has ended up on this filly when he probably would have been offered any of a dozen in the absence of his employers’ reps. Dettori doesn’t have a mount, neither do the Gosdens have a runner. Have they heard that one of the Americans is going to win? I’ve also taken 12/1 Crimson Advocate. She clocked 56.1s for the trip at Gulfstream on fast ground. If anything won the Nunthorpe in that kind of time we’d be raving about it. Battaash holds the record there at 55.9s beating Dayjur’s 56.16s. Got To Love A Grey is top on time ratings but her figure derives from clocking 58.22s over the Nunthorpe CD on fast ground. 2.1s equates to around twelve lengths at five furlongs. The Ascot Standard Time for the trip is around 60s, probably the equivalent of the Americans running almost an extra quarter-furlong, and when stamina is running out that’s a long distance.
3.05 - I can’t remember the last time I really studied this race but I was in the mood to do so. It’s the kind of race probably best avoided since fillies aren’t the most reliable or consistent horses around and this is a huge prize for modest types. They’re watering enough to keep “firm” out of the going description so I’m not too worried that Al Agaila (33/1) [NR] doesn’t seem to like very fast ground. She won a handicap of this value on her reappearance and reportedly didn’t like the fast ground next time. I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s just been laid out for this big prize. She was 2/1f last time and if she’d won she’d be at least 5lbs higher. I also like the two Irish fillies, Adelaise (14/1) and Yerwanthere (8/1). Both were repeatedly denied a run last time in valuable races and can be marked up a good bit. I’m happy to settle for these three against the field.
3.40 - There really isn’t much separating this entire field and with Prosperous Voyage holding a seven-pound advantage over Jumbly on ORs and 5lbs on RPRs I’m not sure the latter should be ahead of her in the market. I’m not confident in my mark for her either and Prosperous Voyage strikes me as the percentage call at value odds. I’ve taken 11/4. I’ll check the betting on the morning for a market without her because I fancy Potapova (20/1) to outrun her odds by some way.
4.20 - I’ve taken 25/1 (boosted to 28s) Mostahdaf. When he won over 10½f at Riyadh early this year on fast ground he clocked 2m 6s. Extrapolate any 10f time in the UK an extra half-furlong and you’ll be doing well to get close to that. Then factor in the ones he beat. Second was Dubai Future, currently on 113 and his best three RPRs are 118. He was beaten seven lengths. Third was Flying Visit whose current rating is 97 but the time before posted an RPR of 108. He was beaten 12¾ lengths. Fourth was Missed The Cut, OR 111, beaten a further 1¾ lengths. It is genuinely top class form and I’m not convinced the others in this field could do that to the same opposition. There are only two places on offer but I’m not sure I’ll need the place portion.
5.00 - This is mega competitive, as ever, and I’m going to focus on the ones I think can hit 128 on the scale. This gives a long list of Intellogent, Dual Identity, Perotto, Orbaan, Astro King, Outbreak, Wanees and Ghaly. They combine at just better than evens, which seems fair if I think one of them will win but I’m not backing them all. I backed Outbreak a week ago at 40s and will go in again. I also backed Ghaly a few days ago at 12/1 and at 16s for the John Smith in case the double is the plan. Those would be my main two. I’ll back Intellogent too and will stick there. Dual Identity gets in so he’s a bet too.
5.35 - I’ll have a decent bet on Gregory to stay well ahead of this field. I’ll have small savers on Hadrianus, Sumo Sam and Batemans Bay at the best odds and terms. They look too long.
6.10 - I’ll probably just look for a couple of fun 50/1 shots here. Muqtahem (50/1) looks like one and I’ll decide on another. I’ll cover them with Fandom (15/2) who also has a fast time to his name.
(I also have Gregory in a decent-money double with Vauban.)