Think that puts him level with Frankie for Royal Ascot winners.
Road to Royal Ascot, 2023
- Thread starter an capall
- Start date
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
**** day. Bad bet on Native Trail honestly, I don't think Appleby is good enough to get one back. And Francesco Clemente was awful - he's got bags of talent but if you have issues at Goodwood with 5 rivals what do you expect with a dozen plus.
Frankel
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2014
- Messages
- 4,942
Ace Impact takes this in hopefully.
Frankel
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2014
- Messages
- 4,942
Noche Magica. Spit
Maybe I should get Mrs O up the duff and stick her in the London Marathon...
Can we archive this for future (digi) archeologists?
Kensington Palace
Villanova Queen
Jessie thought her classy enough to run in a Gp3 first up this season, but ground was probably against her.
Thwarted by lack of pace latest. Interesting that Colin Keane comes over for the single ride.
16/1 6 pl B365.
Duke Of Cambridge
Jumbly
Ran fresh in small Gp2 after a long break latest. Cobwebs blown away.ready for this,looks a soliid bet.
9/4 B365.
POW
Hard to know where the pace will come from, though Luxembourg and the yank could both set it.
However, Wm Buick's no mug, and Adayar is likely to ensure they're all kept honest.
3/1 B365
Queen's Vase
Pretty confident Peking Opera can take this - bet of the day for me.
11/2 B365
Villanova Queen
Jessie thought her classy enough to run in a Gp3 first up this season, but ground was probably against her.
Thwarted by lack of pace latest. Interesting that Colin Keane comes over for the single ride.
16/1 6 pl B365.
Duke Of Cambridge
Jumbly
Ran fresh in small Gp2 after a long break latest. Cobwebs blown away.ready for this,looks a soliid bet.
9/4 B365.
POW
Hard to know where the pace will come from, though Luxembourg and the yank could both set it.
However, Wm Buick's no mug, and Adayar is likely to ensure they're all kept honest.
3/1 B365
Queen's Vase
Pretty confident Peking Opera can take this - bet of the day for me.
11/2 B365
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,014
Today's thoughts, again written on Monday with prices as they were then. The only edits are re Al Agaila in the fillies' handicap and Dual Identity in the Hunt Cup.
2.30 - As with Tuesday’s 2yo race, I haven’t studied any form and ordered them by RPR to see if any betting anomalies stick out. I’ve backed Balsam at 16/1, 5 places. I’m probably putting two and two together and coming up with five, but I have to wonder why Coolmore/Aiden O’Brien aren’t represented in a field of 28 and why Moore has ended up on this filly when he probably would have been offered any of a dozen in the absence of his employers’ reps. Dettori doesn’t have a mount, neither do the Gosdens have a runner. Have they heard that one of the Americans is going to win? I’ve also taken 12/1 Crimson Advocate. She clocked 56.1s for the trip at Gulfstream on fast ground. If anything won the Nunthorpe in that kind of time we’d be raving about it. Battaash holds the record there at 55.9s beating Dayjur’s 56.16s. Got To Love A Grey is top on time ratings but her figure derives from clocking 58.22s over the Nunthorpe CD on fast ground. 2.1s equates to around twelve lengths at five furlongs. The Ascot Standard Time for the trip is around 60s, probably the equivalent of the Americans running almost an extra quarter-furlong, and when stamina is running out that’s a long distance.
3.05 - I can’t remember the last time I really studied this race but I was in the mood to do so. It’s the kind of race probably best avoided since fillies aren’t the most reliable or consistent horses around and this is a huge prize for modest types. They’re watering enough to keep “firm” out of the going description so I’m not too worried that Al Agaila (33/1) [NR] doesn’t seem to like very fast ground. She won a handicap of this value on her reappearance and reportedly didn’t like the fast ground next time. I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s just been laid out for this big prize. She was 2/1f last time and if she’d won she’d be at least 5lbs higher. I also like the two Irish fillies, Adelaise (14/1) and Yerwanthere (8/1). Both were repeatedly denied a run last time in valuable races and can be marked up a good bit. I’m happy to settle for these three against the field.
3.40 - There really isn’t much separating this entire field and with Prosperous Voyage holding a seven-pound advantage over Jumbly on ORs and 5lbs on RPRs I’m not sure the latter should be ahead of her in the market. I’m not confident in my mark for her either and Prosperous Voyage strikes me as the percentage call at value odds. I’ve taken 11/4. I’ll check the betting on the morning for a market without her because I fancy Potapova (20/1) to outrun her odds by some way.
4.20 - I’ve taken 25/1 (boosted to 28s) Mostahdaf. When he won over 10½f at Riyadh early this year on fast ground he clocked 2m 6s. Extrapolate any 10f time in the UK an extra half-furlong and you’ll be doing well to get close to that. Then factor in the ones he beat. Second was Dubai Future, currently on 113 and his best three RPRs are 118. He was beaten seven lengths. Third was Flying Visit whose current rating is 97 but the time before posted an RPR of 108. He was beaten 12¾ lengths. Fourth was Missed The Cut, OR 111, beaten a further 1¾ lengths. It is genuinely top class form and I’m not convinced the others in this field could do that to the same opposition. There are only two places on offer but I’m not sure I’ll need the place portion.
5.00 - This is mega competitive, as ever, and I’m going to focus on the ones I think can hit 128 on the scale. This gives a long list of Intellogent, Dual Identity, Perotto, Orbaan, Astro King, Outbreak, Wanees and Ghaly. They combine at just better than evens, which seems fair if I think one of them will win but I’m not backing them all. I backed Outbreak a week ago at 40s and will go in again. I also backed Ghaly a few days ago at 12/1 and at 16s for the John Smith in case the double is the plan. Those would be my main two. I’ll back Intellogent too and will stick there. Dual Identity gets in so he’s a bet too.
5.35 - I’ll have a decent bet on Gregory to stay well ahead of this field. I’ll have small savers on Hadrianus, Sumo Sam and Batemans Bay at the best odds and terms. They look too long.
6.10 - I’ll probably just look for a couple of fun 50/1 shots here. Muqtahem (50/1) looks like one and I’ll decide on another. I’ll cover them with Fandom (15/2) who also has a fast time to his name.
(I also have Gregory in a decent-money double with Vauban.)
2.30 - As with Tuesday’s 2yo race, I haven’t studied any form and ordered them by RPR to see if any betting anomalies stick out. I’ve backed Balsam at 16/1, 5 places. I’m probably putting two and two together and coming up with five, but I have to wonder why Coolmore/Aiden O’Brien aren’t represented in a field of 28 and why Moore has ended up on this filly when he probably would have been offered any of a dozen in the absence of his employers’ reps. Dettori doesn’t have a mount, neither do the Gosdens have a runner. Have they heard that one of the Americans is going to win? I’ve also taken 12/1 Crimson Advocate. She clocked 56.1s for the trip at Gulfstream on fast ground. If anything won the Nunthorpe in that kind of time we’d be raving about it. Battaash holds the record there at 55.9s beating Dayjur’s 56.16s. Got To Love A Grey is top on time ratings but her figure derives from clocking 58.22s over the Nunthorpe CD on fast ground. 2.1s equates to around twelve lengths at five furlongs. The Ascot Standard Time for the trip is around 60s, probably the equivalent of the Americans running almost an extra quarter-furlong, and when stamina is running out that’s a long distance.
3.05 - I can’t remember the last time I really studied this race but I was in the mood to do so. It’s the kind of race probably best avoided since fillies aren’t the most reliable or consistent horses around and this is a huge prize for modest types. They’re watering enough to keep “firm” out of the going description so I’m not too worried that Al Agaila (33/1) [NR] doesn’t seem to like very fast ground. She won a handicap of this value on her reappearance and reportedly didn’t like the fast ground next time. I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s just been laid out for this big prize. She was 2/1f last time and if she’d won she’d be at least 5lbs higher. I also like the two Irish fillies, Adelaise (14/1) and Yerwanthere (8/1). Both were repeatedly denied a run last time in valuable races and can be marked up a good bit. I’m happy to settle for these three against the field.
3.40 - There really isn’t much separating this entire field and with Prosperous Voyage holding a seven-pound advantage over Jumbly on ORs and 5lbs on RPRs I’m not sure the latter should be ahead of her in the market. I’m not confident in my mark for her either and Prosperous Voyage strikes me as the percentage call at value odds. I’ve taken 11/4. I’ll check the betting on the morning for a market without her because I fancy Potapova (20/1) to outrun her odds by some way.
4.20 - I’ve taken 25/1 (boosted to 28s) Mostahdaf. When he won over 10½f at Riyadh early this year on fast ground he clocked 2m 6s. Extrapolate any 10f time in the UK an extra half-furlong and you’ll be doing well to get close to that. Then factor in the ones he beat. Second was Dubai Future, currently on 113 and his best three RPRs are 118. He was beaten seven lengths. Third was Flying Visit whose current rating is 97 but the time before posted an RPR of 108. He was beaten 12¾ lengths. Fourth was Missed The Cut, OR 111, beaten a further 1¾ lengths. It is genuinely top class form and I’m not convinced the others in this field could do that to the same opposition. There are only two places on offer but I’m not sure I’ll need the place portion.
5.00 - This is mega competitive, as ever, and I’m going to focus on the ones I think can hit 128 on the scale. This gives a long list of Intellogent, Dual Identity, Perotto, Orbaan, Astro King, Outbreak, Wanees and Ghaly. They combine at just better than evens, which seems fair if I think one of them will win but I’m not backing them all. I backed Outbreak a week ago at 40s and will go in again. I also backed Ghaly a few days ago at 12/1 and at 16s for the John Smith in case the double is the plan. Those would be my main two. I’ll back Intellogent too and will stick there. Dual Identity gets in so he’s a bet too.
5.35 - I’ll have a decent bet on Gregory to stay well ahead of this field. I’ll have small savers on Hadrianus, Sumo Sam and Batemans Bay at the best odds and terms. They look too long.
6.10 - I’ll probably just look for a couple of fun 50/1 shots here. Muqtahem (50/1) looks like one and I’ll decide on another. I’ll cover them with Fandom (15/2) who also has a fast time to his name.
(I also have Gregory in a decent-money double with Vauban.)
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Wed:
Lady Eros went in my tracker after her impressive win last time at Yarmouth. She only went up 6lbs which underestimates her and the second that day, United Front, is a a gelding rated in the mid 90s on the AW whose turf mark that day was 81. He was clear of the third and won well at Beverley a week or so later so the form is good. Of course, the KP is a new race I've not had a bet in before and I didn't realise it was on the round track when I initially bet Lady Eros. I even went to the trouble of researching the Sandringham to find winners from draw 1. Oh well.
No bet in the Duke of Cambridge or Prince of Wales. I've lost on the latter anyway with Desert Crown's injury.
In the Hunt Cup I've taken a few stabs with Atrium, Wanees and the Suroor entrant Ghaly who was ungodly impressive the last time he ran and SBS has won this before with long absent horses.
Lady Eros went in my tracker after her impressive win last time at Yarmouth. She only went up 6lbs which underestimates her and the second that day, United Front, is a a gelding rated in the mid 90s on the AW whose turf mark that day was 81. He was clear of the third and won well at Beverley a week or so later so the form is good. Of course, the KP is a new race I've not had a bet in before and I didn't realise it was on the round track when I initially bet Lady Eros. I even went to the trouble of researching the Sandringham to find winners from draw 1. Oh well.
No bet in the Duke of Cambridge or Prince of Wales. I've lost on the latter anyway with Desert Crown's injury.
In the Hunt Cup I've taken a few stabs with Atrium, Wanees and the Suroor entrant Ghaly who was ungodly impressive the last time he ran and SBS has won this before with long absent horses.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Martin Stephen's selections for today.
Balsam ( Wootton Bassett ex Al Johrah) , dam runner up to Lady Aurelia in this race , WB sire of River Tiber
Lady Eros. Her full siblings achieved ratings of 102,96 and 94. LE open to improvement off 86.
Patapova, a grand daughter of Russian Rhythm.
Outbreak . Sire Dark Angell sired the last 2 Royal Hunt Cup winners.
Supersonic Man, bred by Llety Stud , bred previous winner Soldier's Call as well as two runners up of Windsor Castle Stakes.
Enjoy.
Balsam ( Wootton Bassett ex Al Johrah) , dam runner up to Lady Aurelia in this race , WB sire of River Tiber
Lady Eros. Her full siblings achieved ratings of 102,96 and 94. LE open to improvement off 86.
Patapova, a grand daughter of Russian Rhythm.
Outbreak . Sire Dark Angell sired the last 2 Royal Hunt Cup winners.
Supersonic Man, bred by Llety Stud , bred previous winner Soldier's Call as well as two runners up of Windsor Castle Stakes.
Enjoy.
kensland
At the Start
Royal Ascot.
6.10. Supersonic Man 14/1
stk 5.00 rtn 75.00
Going with , Mrs John Harrington entery, have a lot of respect for this trainer, win or lose.
Good luck all.
6.10. Supersonic Man 14/1
stk 5.00 rtn 75.00
Going with , Mrs John Harrington entery, have a lot of respect for this trainer, win or lose.
Good luck all.
PlaceBacker
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2003
- Messages
- 2,844
Never nearer 6th from wide trip, stable had a poor day
PlaceBacker
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2003
- Messages
- 2,844
In the "lucky last" like Action Point
Each Way @ 20-1 [Bet 365] 5 places
To carry on stable form from yesterday
Each Way @ 20-1 [Bet 365] 5 places
To carry on stable form from yesterday
jinnyj
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 8, 2004
- Messages
- 4,563
I think today’s harder......!:lol:
OK...my two pennith worth goes as follows:
Race 1
Very much like the top two and am also interested in the two non WW US fillies but it depends if the jocks can rate them rather than blasting off and not getting home which can often happen.
Race 2
Yerwanthere has been talked about very positively and I quite like Tarrabb (first time TT) and Zenga (wind op) while Crystal Caprice also catches my eye.
Race 3
Cant knock either Jumbly or Prosperous Voyage while I’ve got a feeling Grande Dame is is still interesting.
Race 4
No surprise to see any of the top four win but heart says Adayar
Race 5
Reaching for my pin...or maybe the Moon? Tempus, Blue for You, Greatgadian and Wannes (latter two both first time blinkers)
Race 6
Peking Opera and whatever else I like in the paddock
Race 7
Johannes and Action Point and paddock pick.
Good luck again....my day yesterday was middling.
OK...my two pennith worth goes as follows:
Race 1
Very much like the top two and am also interested in the two non WW US fillies but it depends if the jocks can rate them rather than blasting off and not getting home which can often happen.
Race 2
Yerwanthere has been talked about very positively and I quite like Tarrabb (first time TT) and Zenga (wind op) while Crystal Caprice also catches my eye.
Race 3
Cant knock either Jumbly or Prosperous Voyage while I’ve got a feeling Grande Dame is is still interesting.
Race 4
No surprise to see any of the top four win but heart says Adayar
Race 5
Reaching for my pin...or maybe the Moon? Tempus, Blue for You, Greatgadian and Wannes (latter two both first time blinkers)
Race 6
Peking Opera and whatever else I like in the paddock
Race 7
Johannes and Action Point and paddock pick.
Good luck again....my day yesterday was middling.
Anyone else on? down to 6/1 now
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I wouldn't back it with stolen. Don't trust Irish handicappers are well handicapped (not including the unexposed fiilles in the KP)
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,014
Wouldn't that imply that the Irish assessors are better at their job than the UK ones?
Imvho, Irish handicaps tend to be much more heavily populated than the UK ones and thereby more competitive. But narrow margins at the line mean the handicapper can't raise them too much.
I would like to see more stats on how the Irish handicappers fare over here but they're nowhere near as successful as the jumpers so maybe the officials are just doing a better job with them.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,014
Fvcking jockey all but blew it.
I'm not far off level for the meeting now.
The runner-up must be very smart too.
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Well done D.mine won on the far side.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Young Joseph brought James McDonald all the way from Aus and Yerwanthere is apparently one of the main reasons so EW bet for me
chaumi
Rookie
last to first, who put up Queenie? I owe you one.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,014
That race needs rewatching several times.
Loads of hard luck stories and poor jockeyship (not naming names
).
Three Irish horses in the first four or five?
Loads of hard luck stories and poor jockeyship (not naming names
).Three Irish horses in the first four or five?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The racce needs binning or putting on the straight track.
Followed you in with Villanova Queen. Thanks reet, great tipping.