Road to Royal Ascot, 2023

Reckon Meditate (Coronation) can reverse placings with the odds-on fav on this ground. Certainly loved it [n the Gp1 at Keeneland,whereas the fav is unproven, as yet.
Took 4/1 B365
 
Shame there are three very short favs today so possibly throw them in some straight forecasts (something I tend to forget about normally). And it’s another day where I shall probably play late as I see them...so expect after timing if anything comes good! And I seem to be all about the Queens today!

Race 1
Jabaara, Matrika and Pretty Crystal....like breeding of all three

Race 2
Away from the fav, have had small ew on Queen Me

Race 3
Moracana, Okita Soushi and Aimeric

Race 4
Have done tricast first three

Race 5
Jackie Oh, Karsavina and Marksman Queen

Race 6
Took evens the fav

Race 7
Hispanic
Wallbank (strong fav for Norfolk last year and only just beaten)
Harry Brown (liked the way he travelled last time.....as Matt says “like a travelly thing!”)

Have a good day, One and All.
 
3.05 I have Noble Style in a roll over. He's too big at 14s and I may have a wee bet on the machine at those type odds. He came back too soon after the Guineas where he ran well for a long way.

5.00 Chelsea Green has been in my tracker since her win at Newmarket. I took 18s ante-post about her for this and the price is much shorter now. I normally top up on the day but not here, it's so tough to get one home in the handicaps.

5.35 This is my sort of race. A small field Group race with a questionable front of the market. King of Steel had a hard race in the Derby and is a Varian shorty in a Group race - a must oppose in other words. I can't have Arrest on the ground so that leaves a dutch on Artistic Star and Continuous.

6.10 Same here as Chelsea Green - Kerdos ran in the Yacowlef/Pinafore 6f handicap at the Craven Meeting. He pulled hard and was prominent in the face of a head wind that day and faded. He then was dropped to 5 at Chester and missed the break before staying on. I have 20s ante-post and he's much shorter now.
 
Again written on Wednesday with prices as then:

2.30 - Same approach as per previous 2yo races. Navassa Island was debuting when an unlucky in running neck runner up to Porta Fortuna. There has to be a good chance she’ll progress more. Both these fillies are on par with previous winners based on card RPRs. They dutch at 7/2 which I reckon is well worth playing.

3.05 - Little Big Bear is the most likely winner but I don’t think Shaquille should be anywhere near 12/1. It looks to me like the handicapper has erred quite a bit on the side of caution in assessing his Newbury win but I think it stacks up very well and RPRs agree. I’ve taken 6/1 without the favourite.

3.40 - This is still one of my favourite races of the entire year and this is a mega competitive renewal. A quick look at the odds column as it relates to the ratings shows there has to be loads of value in the market although backing one that’s over the odds is no guarantee of backing a winner. I have to back the top two [Magical Morning 50/1 & Aikhal 40s] to start with otherwise I’ll be sick if one wins but it tends to be a race for more lightly raced progressive types and there’s no shortage of them. Then there’s the likes of Live Your Dream, Nagano, Tyson Fury and Al Nafir of whom we haven’t seen much but who are obviously good. And Godolphin, quiet in the handicaps so far, chuck four into this. I’d always intended to be mob-handed in this but I’m really struggling to get the viable numbers down! Al Nafir is a half-brother to Ghaiyyath who was already a 126 horse by this stage and who went on to be a 131+. 12f stretched Ghaiyyath but Al Nafir has already won at this trip and holds an entry over another 2f in a big handicap at the July meeting so he might be targeting the Ebor but there has to be a chance he’s a 120+ horse waiting to happen. He reminds me of the operation’s Rare Rhythm who turned up after a year off and won this race off 97 before ending up on 115 at the end of the season. I have to back him at least to cover all the other bets. Tyson Fury has to be a bet at 50s too. In September 2021 he was second at level weights in a Listed race in amongst a number of horses rated from 106 to 110 and there seemed no fluke about it. He’s obviously had his problems and bled on his reappearance but he’s been given plenty of time off and it’s interesting that he turns up here with Hollie Doyle booked. I’ll back a few more nearer the time, probably, but will start with these.

4.20 - I’ve ordered these by RPR, which coincides with ORs. Tahiyra’s mark is up there with recent winners but Meditate was a strong winter favourite for the Newmarket Guineas before her setback and the chances are she’ll come on at least as much for her second to the favourite in the Irish version and we saw how much Paddington improved from his Guineas to Tuesday. I think 5/1 is huge and a no-brainer each-way shout. So too is Comhra at 33/1. She was only a head behind Meditate that day so the odds differential makes no sense.

5.00 - I’m settling for two in this race against the field: Jackie Oh and Clounmacon at the prices. I’m presuming Jackie Oh is thought better handicapped than Unless otherwise why is Moore riding it, and Murtagh landed a huge gamble in this race two years ago and his filly comes here via the same Curragh handicap. I might add one or two longshots on the day. 66/1, for example, looks helluva long for a Varian-Egan in a race of this nature, especially since they’ve maybe been preserving the filly’s mark for this huge pot.

5.35 - I didn’t look through the form for this because King Of Steel’s Derby run stands out but I worry about this race coming too soon. The beaten horses are less likely to be affected since they probably didn’t have hard races but Relentless Voyager went for the Italian Derby a couple of weeks earlier and has had more time to recover. I’ve taken a fun win bet on him without the favourite for the sake of an interest at 12/1 and will go in again each-way if that market comes online.

6.10 - Again, the table suggests there’s potentially plenty of value if you can land on the right one(s). Hispanic has to be a bet at the price just because of the strength in depth of the stable. You’d have to think this one is regarded as the yard’s best-handicapped 3yo sprinter to be turning up here. I’ve also taken 50/1, 6 places, Can To Can because of where it sits in the table and the rider is 1-2 for the yard this season, and Adrian Nicholls might just be a chip off the late old man’s block when it comes to sprint handicaps. I’ll add one or two more on the day.

Be lucky, everyone :thumbsup:
 
Still grinning like a grinnedy grinnedy thing, but let's see if it's tears or cheers today. Mixed, I suspect.

Race 1 - Like the look of the Ten Sovereigns Do It With Style. 25s seems high enough and may be mid 30s/40s BF. Though you'd have to be thinking Porta F is the chosen one. The Blue Point Gushing Gold - AB says she's improved since Leics, and Flora of Bermuda ran very well a couple of days ago. Gone a bit blue, but still just about big enough. Not sure why Matrika isn't a clear fav.

Race 2 - Suspect lots of thoughts around today of 'can't be having the Bear at that price in this field'. So....Shouldvebeenaring. LBB was eased up at Haydock, but Ringy wasn't stopping. Can get closer and 25s to find out is OK (highest seen was 33 B365 last night). That also brings in The XO, who also ran well in that 6f Conditions race at Newcastle in April. Desert Cop didn't do the form any harm with a nice enough run against Bradsell, where the 5f was possibly too short. Today will tell if I'm over rating that Newcastle race. Could Queen Me come back and make an impact? Possibly.

Race 3 - Can't leave Lucander alone at 50s. DO thought he appeared to flatten out at Epsom last time, I thought it was a strong run and if he really does have the stamina for a proper (likely) fast run 12f, he could be coming home well as others fade. Jack Darcy looks interesting at 40s. And Kim Bailey thinks he has Ajero spot on. Proven in this race, but wouldn't really be wanting anything less than 33, will need to drift.

Race 4 - a watcher

Race 5 - oh my word. Pick the bones out of that. Hannon thinks Magical Sunset can go well. 20-1 seems stingy, though. But this is impossible.

Race 6 - watch

Race 7 - Brave Nation would have been a lot closer in last year's Norfolk but for getting hampered in the last 100 yards. Made a nice mid race move at Newmarket on the 20th May, seemingly with no effort from the jockey to do anything after that. Maybe intentionally, maybe he just didn't have anything. Gelded after. 80-1 to find out if he can reproduce last year's Ascot run. Sweet Harmony ran well in the Nell Gwyn, dropping back to sprinting could be the making (by No Nay Never). Tom Marquand rides, p1. 66-1 but need in the 100s.
 
chaumi said:
Race 3 - Can't leave Lucander alone at 50s. DO thought he appeared to flatten out at Epsom last time, .
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... because he was given too much to do off a slow pace. Plus, they've declared that the Ebor is the plan and they won't want to go up the ratings for that, it's a hard enough race as it is. Still, a small win bet at long odds is in order if they're realising maybe the Ebor trip might be beyond him. (Or that that patter was to sucker suckers like me into ignoring him until August...)
 
My reading was that the entry in the John Smiths suggests the Ebor is no longer the plan, but maybe they're using this race to really find out. The danger of trying to second guess intentions, and I regularly get it wrong!

But fully agree, today is not a day to go wild, for sure. The real opportunity may be yet to come.
 
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Sakheer at 7/1 EW is the bet on the meeting for me.

Always hard to oppose Aiden but this horse has speed to burn and might just upset the fav.
 
There's some big money about for Charlie Appleby's Nafir 10/1 to 6/1 bfe and he is joint fav.

Happy to follow the money with William Buick up
 
Tahiyra looks like a steering job but I won't take the short odds.

Clounmacon 16/1 ew BFE caught my and could win at big odds

Will be interesting to see how King of Steel fairs but 11/10 when he should be 1/4......the bookies seem to think the form is not what it appears to be so I will just watch.
 
I'm on rocket Rodney each way in the last. Beat some horses in a listed race last year that have followed up with wins in handicaps and listed races with marks in the 90s/100s followed by a couple of seconds. Definitely a warm up at York after 9 minths off and presumably targetted at this. Hopefully that tune up has helped to get him ready off this mark.

Other than that, a few trixies involving some mentioned above and I like Karsavina in the 1700.

Good luck everyone.
 
Desert Orchid said:
5.00 - I’m settling for two in this race against the field: Jackie Oh and Clounmacon at the prices. I’m presuming Jackie Oh is thought better handicapped than Unless otherwise why is Moore riding it, and Murtagh landed a huge gamble in this race two years ago and his filly comes here via the same Curragh handicap. I might add one or two longshots on the day. 66/1, for example, looks helluva long for a Varian-Egan in a race of this nature, especially since they’ve maybe been preserving the filly’s mark for this huge pot.
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I'm liking the way this is shaping up. I got 7/1 Jackie Oh and 25s (7 places) Clounmacon the other evening. The latter is into 11/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
2.30 - Navassa Island was debuting when an unlucky in running neck runner up to Porta Fortuna. There has to be a good chance she’ll progress more. Both these fillies are on par with previous winners based on card RPRs. They dutch at 7/2 which I reckon is well worth playing.
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Navassa Island a wee bit disappointing there but job done nevertheless.
 
Some lovely fillies there...could end up a decent race. (AT alert....backed the winner down at the start....beautiful sort).
 
Desert Orchid said:
3.05 - Little Big Bear is the most likely winner but I don’t think Shaquille should be anywhere near 12/1. It looks to me like the handicapper has erred quite a bit on the side of caution in assessing his Newbury win but I think it stacks up very well and RPRs agree. I’ve taken 6/1 without the favourite.
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Gave them a start and still beat them easy :cool:
 
Watching the replay and checking back over the figures and tying it in with what happened in the race, I do think LBB under-performed but the winner does look even better than I'd thought.
 
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When I did the race on Wednesday only three horses were priced under 10/1, the Fox horse, Al Nafir and the winner and I backed the Godolphin on the basis I thought he could beat those two. After that it was a question of taking a few longshots for fun.

The result is no surprise (other than the King horse doing better than I'd reckoned) but I was checking Moore's body language approaching the home turn and thinking 'at least that one isn't going to win' :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
4.20 - I’ve ordered these by RPR, which coincides with ORs. Tahiyra’s mark is up there with recent winners but Meditate was a strong winter favourite for the Newmarket Guineas before her setback and the chances are she’ll come on at least as much for her second to the favourite in the Irish version and we saw how much Paddington improved from his Guineas to Tuesday. I think 5/1 is huge and a no-brainer each-way shout.
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Really disappointing there from Meditate. Couldn't beat rivals rated 110 and less. The winner didn't have to be anywhere near her best to win that.
 
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