Road to the 2000 Guineas

I think Pausanais will be much better than just a German Guineas horse. Understand swerving Frankel but expect he's up to winning a very nice race over a mile this year. Very taking display on Wednesday in a decent time and the comments were that he'd made up into a nice looking three year old.
 
I think Frankel would have needed to be about 50% yesterday to justify being evens for the Guineas (never mind odds on). A real betting opportunity may present itself in a couple of Saturday's time.
 
If he wins impressively he will be a massive lay for the Derby. His physique plainly doesn't look tailor made for Epsom.
 
The Al Zarooni side of the Godolphin operation doesn't seem to have had any problems getting the horses fit and ready to run. The trainer's comments on Racing UK the other day suggested that Dubai Prince is a likely runner at Newmarket and he looks a big price to me. Like a number of people on here I wasn't that impressed by Frankel yesterday.
 
To those that weren't impressed by Frankel yesterday, can I ask what you would have liked him to have done. Winning by 4 lengths and 6, I'm not sure you could ask for a great deal more. Are we in danger of being underwhelmed by him, like some were in the Dewhurst too because of the style of his Royal Lodge?
 
I don't think you can knock Frankel's price to be honest, he's bolted up in all starts and there is very little in opposition to him.

Pathfork - Not been seen since last year and haven't heard much?
Ballydoyle Lot - Roderic the only real challenger and again, not heard anything.
Wooton Bassett - Likely to miss the race
Native Khan - Might swerve the race for Longchamp and wouldn't get near Frankel

It will be a great race to bet EW in against Frankel but I think he's the right price, when you think 1/2 represents 66% chance of winning, I wouldn't want to be laying any bigger. Bar Frankel, it looks a weak renewal to be honest.
 
Euronymous said:
Yeah, the place market is the one to concentrate on.
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The bookies will be fearing the EW money on the race now as it's going to be such a filthy EW race to bet in. Roderic is 8/1 to win so 2/1 to place already with the bookmakers and you'll get absolutely nowhere near 2/1 on Betfair for him to place if he lines up on the day.

The forecast is for not much rain between now and the day either so it could be pretty quick ground.
 
davidjohnson said:
To those that weren't impressed by Frankel yesterday, can I ask what you would have liked him to have done. Winning by 4 lengths and 6, I'm not sure you could ask for a great deal more. Are we in danger of being underwhelmed by him, like some were in the Dewhurst too because of the style of his Royal Lodge?
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ehh, beat an 89 rated horse more than 4 lengths maybe? Is that not too much to ask of a horse a ludicrous price for the Guineas?
 
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gus said:
The Al Zarooni side of the Godolphin operation doesn't seem to have had any problems getting the horses fit and ready to run. The trainer's comments on Racing UK the other day suggested that Dubai Prince is a likely runner at Newmarket and he looks a big price to me. Like a number of people on here I wasn't that impressed by Frankel yesterday.
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I'm with you.
 
Gamla Stan said:
It will be a great race to bet EW in against Frankel but I think he's the right price, when you think 1/2 represents 66% chance of winning, I wouldn't want to be laying any bigger. Bar Frankel, it looks a weak renewal to be honest.
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Not too sure about that. First of all, if he was 80% yesterday, then he doesn't look as good as last year (not a strong argument, but strong enough for a horse at near 1/2).

Secondly, the Guineas has so many unexposed horses, it is near impossible to have any horse 1/2. The last 4 winners have had an SP (according to my memory) of 10/1, 8/1, 25/1, 25/1.

We at this point in time have no idea how good Pathfork, Dubai Prince etc are, as well as many others who don't look the part now but have similar levels of form as to the last 2 winners.

Add in the fact that Frankel looks anything but straightforward and you have the worst priced Guineas favourite in years, for me.
 
Hamm;414969 Add in the fact that Frankel looks anything but straightforward and you have the worst priced Guineas favourite in years said:
Last year's favourite was more opposable. Frankel looks more of a miler than SNA and at least he's had a trial.
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Cecil's last winner of the Greenham was unimpressive in victory yet progressed enough to go close in the Guineas - and Enrique had nowhere near the credentials that Frankel has. Canford Cliffs hardly looked a 130+ beat last year as well. Ultimately it was only a trial.
 
imagine said:
I'd be worried about him settling in the Derby.
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He ought to get the trip well, but I'd agree that the colt doesn't help himself. At top level it takes something like New Approach to get away with it.

Nevertheless, we shouldn't be too critical of his performance yesterday. The runner-up is clearly better than previous rating suggests (remember these are all relatively unexposed). It is not necessary for any horse to win by more than this in a trial. Frankel has suceeded where many have come unstuck in the past in this on their seasonal debut.
 
Perhaps he isn't, we'll find out on the day. Having said that Hamm, what exactly did you expect him to do yesterday? That race was a trial, he won and that's all you can ask. The main aim is two weeks time and I personally don't see the point in having had him try to win the race by ten lengths or so when it is just a trial and risk taking too much out of him. He may well get beaten in the Guineas - there are potentially plenty of others that may have improved past him. He seemed to carry his head off to the side a bit yesterday and didn't settle all that well either. As you said, not that straightforward. I think he's a likeable horse, I'd like to see him run well at Newmarket but I'm not a fully paid up member of his fan club. I just think he did what was needed yesterday no more, no less and that may or may not be good enough in two weeks time.
 
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Canford Cliffs hardly looked a 130+ beat last year as well.[QUOTE said:
...funnily enough I predicted that Canford would end the season on a rating of 130+ after last year's race... but I know what you mean.

(Remember also the likes of Rodrigo de Triano could only finish fourth in this before winning the Guineas.)

I was hoping that something like Strong Suit would win yesterday so that we could get a bit of value on Frankel for the Guineas. Unfortunately it's gone the other way now though and as much as I like him I couldn't be backing him at the price.
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imagine said:
Perhaps he isn't, we'll find out on the day. Having said that Hamm, what exactly did you expect him to do yesterday? That race was a trial, he won and that's all you can ask. The main aim is two weeks time and I personally don't see the point in having had him try to win the race by ten lengths or so when it is just a trial and risk taking too much out of him. He may well get beaten in the Guineas - there are potentially plenty of others that may have improved past him. He seemed to carry his head off to the side a bit yesterday and didn't settle all that well either. As you said, not that straightforward. I think he's a likeable horse, I'd like to see him run well at Newmarket but I'm not a fully paid up member of his fan club. I just think he did what was needed yesterday no more, no less and that may or may not be good enough in two weeks time.
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It's not what I expected him to do or not, it's that what he did doesn't allow him to be 4/7.
 
I really like the way he powered and stretched to the line. Its quite a sight and I couldnt back against him at all

As for place market, horses like this can burn off the likelier contenders which could lead to some unpredictable placings. Never a market i take any interest in anyway
 
davidjohnson said:
To those that weren't impressed by Frankel yesterday, can I ask what you would have liked him to have done. Winning by 4 lengths and 6, I'm not sure you could ask for a great deal more. Are we in danger of being underwhelmed by him, like some were in the Dewhurst too because of the style of his Royal Lodge?
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I really like the horse - I backed him for the Guineas and Derby after his Doncaster run - but I just thought he made slightly heavier weather of things yesterday than anticipated. To be fair, the pace was clearly pretty ordinary and I accept that in the circumstances it would have been difficult for him to be really impressive. He's very short now, though, and I think Pathfork and Dubai Prince are very good colts, well up to giving him a race.
 
I find it very difficult to believe that people weren't impressed. I don't have as much of an eye for flat horses as I do for jumps horses (behave), but to me that was an immensely impressive performance. Particularly given the noises from Cecil's stable about his fitness (before and after the race).

I tried to lay him at 2/7 yesterday but had account problems. I always go against champion juveniles. But he has almost certainly trained on, which I believe is half the battle.

Incidentally, and (given my comments above about my eye) this should probably be ignored, I believe that Frankel has almost zero chance of staying 1m4f. In fact he looked like a miler.

He will win the Guineas
Be hammered in the Derby
Scramble home over 1m2f in the Eclipse or International
And then win a few G1s at a mile before being retired at the end of the season.
 
There are half a dozen in with a shout of the Guineas. I'd doubt the mile is even Frankel's best trip (...assuming they get him to settle). Few will be taking the price. He may well be more backable on the day.
 
Bar the Bull said:
He will win the Guineas
Be hammered in the Derby
Scramble home over 1m2f in the Eclipse or International
And then win a few G1s at a mile before being retired at the end of the season.
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I hate to be contrary, but while he may win the Guineas he is horrible value (remember Celtic Swing).

If they get him to settle he'll win the Derby (in a similar fashion to New Approach).

He'd win the Eclipse doing handstands at what may prove his optimum trip.

...just goes to show... it's opinions that make a market.;)
 
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