Road to the 2000 Guineas

He won easily but the opposition, given how poorly Strong Suit ran, was very poor. He didn't settle and his head carriage wasn't great, I wouldn't take the current odds about him, though he is still the most likely winner.
 
Was the pacemaker there yesterday to guarantee some pace or to deliberately slow it down? I think maybe the latter, in an effort to teach Frankel to settle.

It's easy to see why Cecil wanted to get a run into him, there would have been far too much fizz left in him if he had gone straight to Newmarket. He will surely improve a lot from yesterday, the pace of the race should suit better and he certainly has a lot of speed. On the other hand he looks a difficult ride and there will be pressure on his jockey.

On The Bridle, Cantoris and I saw Pathfork in Jessie Harrington's yesterday. He walked, trotted and cantered with the jumpers and juveniles in the yard and was good as gold. He also looked well in his coat.
 
Frankel looked burly yesterday and Cecil certainly left something to work on. He was also surprisingly relaxed in the preliminaries and going to post. I was impressed given that he will undoubtedly come on a lot for the run.
 
Where did I say he was exposed? My whole point is that beating that horse 4 lengths, exposed or unexposed, is definitely NOT anything to bring a horse's price down to 1/2 for the 2000 Guineas.
 
I think perhaps I misread your quote Hamm - I read it as he doesn't look good enough to win the Guineas rather than he didn't look good enough to justify such a short price for the race, sorry.
 
Marco Botti is a trainer who knows the time of day. Excelebration had won a maiden and a novice event over 6f... He is entitled to improve and I think will prove to be very decent.

I'm of the opinion that was a bloody good trial yesterday and Frankel deserves to be odds on. I'm a big fan of Pathfork and if anything can give Frankel a race it will be him, but I still firmly believe he has plenty to find.
 
imagine said:
I think perhaps I misread your quote Hamm - I read it as he doesn't look good enough to win the Guineas rather than he didn't look good enough to justify such a short price for the race, sorry.
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No need for any apology - i make little sense in person let alone online.
 
Will you lay me some Evens? :D

In all seriousness, he's certainly good enough to win a Guineas, and probably by a wide margin. His style of victories, times and form (Dewhurst) rank far higher than his opposition not to mention the fact he's had a trial and will come on for the trial.

The opposition all have significant question marks over their form and/or wellbeing. If Pathfork had a trial and won in workmanlike fashion, I'd agree with you but he had a setback last year and I wouldn't be keen to weigh in at 8s.

I won't be betting Frankel at 1/2 (I'll be playing EW on the European Free Handicap form I imagine) so I half hope he does get turned over but his price is justifiable given it's a weak renewal bar him and I'd expect him to go off shorter than 1/2.

I agree with the comments about the Derby though, I hope Cecil doesn't bow to the inevitable pressure and sends him towards the Prix Du Jockey Club and Eclipse.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Dubai Prince out of both the Guineas and Derby.

Quelle surprise!
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I'm very disappointed but not shocked by that news. If the horse had gone anywhere else but Dubai I would have backed it for the Derby by now. Maybe it's just bad luck but that's two horses I was excited about (Kingsfort being the other) that have fallen victim to the 'blue bin'.
 
Surprising that this one is Zarooni's though, me and Hamm were saying that he's managed to keep most of his fit and well unlike his colleague!
 
I suppose they should be treated as completely seperate trainers but it's hard to think of them that way while they winter their horses im Dubai. Surely their is a case for leavimg some of their 2yo in the UK for the winter in future.
 
Gearoid said:
I suppose they should be treated as completely seperate trainers but it's hard to think of them that way while they winter their horses im Dubai. Surely their is a case for leavimg some of their 2yo in the UK for the winter in future.
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They should just send them all to Fabre and tell him to target Class 3 conditions races at Leicester with them - would have the same results but with a far better trainer.
 
Backed Pathfork EW today - price probably wont contract much between now and then but just in case anything happens to Frankel. Think he has the beating of everything else in the field if the ground remains quick which it should.
 
My confidence in opposing Frankel is draining - Dubai Prince was my fancy. Pathfork could also give him a race (and probably will) but you like to have a couple on your side to go big.
 
Hamm said:
My confidence in opposing Frankel is draining - Dubai Prince was my fancy. Pathfork could also give him a race (and probably will) but you like to have a couple on your side to go big.
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Pathfork is his only real danger but his setback last year concerns me slightly. He's a blinding EW bet at 8/1 if he lines up though, you're going to be getting a steal on the place part of the bet.
 
Pathfork's performance on quick ground when beating Casamento was the second best juvenile performance of last season to my eye. He really quickened well and was comfortably on top at the end. He certainly has the toe to trouble Frankel. Whether he'll be able to cope with him in the last furlong i'm not so sure but I agree it is a good e/w bet. I can never bring myself to back anything under 10/1 e/w - It just doesn't appeal as a bet to me... (Neither does Frankel at odds on mind you!)

The more I look at this race the less likely I am to have a bet. The 1000 guineas looks a far better betting proposition to me because I do not fancy Havant at all... I think the winner of that race will be a double figure price. The way Harrington is talking up Laughing Lashes I think she could be the improver and one to have on side...
 
Aragorn said:
Pathfork's performance on quick ground when beating Casamento was the second best juvenile performance of last season to my eye. He really quickened well and was comfortably on top at the end. He certainly has the toe to trouble Frankel. Whether he'll be able to cope with him in the last furlong i'm not so sure but I agree it is a good e/w bet. I can never bring myself to back anything under 10/1 e/w - It just doesn't appeal as a bet to me... (Neither does Frankel at odds on mind you!)

The more I look at this race the less likely I am to have a bet. The 1000 guineas looks a far better betting proposition to me because I do not fancy Havant at all... I think the winner of that race will be a double figure price. The way Harrington is talking up Laughing Lashes I think she could be the improver and one to have on side...
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Again she looked superb on Saturday - Andrew Leigh told us to have what we liked on her - he seriously fancies her...
 
Pathfork 7/1
Laughing Lashes 12/1

£1 e/w double returns £11 for a £2 stake if both are placed with Bet365. There are worse bets out there and the win part is just about alive.
 
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