Road to the 2013 Gold Cup

Desert Orchid said:
Compared with how he was running when he won it, I mean. He hardly been within 10lbs of it since. A bit like The Fellow, L'Ami, etc. They seem to hit a peak, then plateau out some way below that.

Maybe if they can get him into the JLT next season off 155...
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He was in the form of his life in beating Denman and Kauto. We shouldn't expect that level of performance every time he runs. He is good enough to be there or thereabouts every time he turns out in Grade 1 company and consistently performs above 170. This places him highly as a steeplechaser.
 
SteveM said:
He was in the form of his life in beating Denman and Kauto. We shouldn't expect that level of performance every time he runs. He is good enough to be there or thereabouts every time he turns out in Grade 1 company and consistently performs above 170. This places him highly as a steeplechaser.
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Yes, but when he was bursting on to the scene he was all set to dominate the scene for the next five or six seasons. Why shouldn't he have been able to run 180+ a number of times, the way the others did?

From now on the only way is down.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, but when he was bursting on to the scene he was all set to dominate the scene for the next five or six seasons. Why shouldn't he have been able to run 180+ a number of times, the way the others did?

From now on the only way is down.
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On his way down? He’s won a KG and been placed in a Gold Cup this season, was second in a KG and placed in a Gold Cup last season and won both the season before. I see this as reproducing a remarkable level of form rather than deterioration. Any definition of "done" would mean over as in finished in this context. He has plenty of racing left in him and is very far from done.
 
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Long Run's always had an engine, his jumping technique is his problem.
Despite all the pre-race plaudits and platitudes, SWC let the mask slip during his post-race interview when he said LR "didn't help" when needed to put in a short one, and he'll remain the perennial bridesmaid for that reason.
No doubt he'll still be touted for next year's GC, and no doubt he'll run exactly the same,
 
we have had this discussion many times before..LR was overrated due to beating Denman and KS who were not the same horses at that stage..both lost the race after and KS ran that bad looked like being retired..what a friend nails that form

On Long Run's wins from GC

Gold Cup...Long Run beat What A Friend [160 horse] horse 12 length
Rating 172

Denman Chase..LR beat Burton Port 162 horse 0.5len giving 10lb
Rating 173

King George..LR beat Captain Chris..poss 169 horse quart len
Rating = 170

throw in today

Gold Cup...beat The Giant Bolster 164 by 6 lengths
Rating = 170

on OHR's he is so consistent and has been for years..he is at best a 173 horse..he's never been the lofty rating folk dreamed up of 180/185..thats why the rest of his career is dogged by this .."not as good" stuff

in reality..his rating has been the same from first time he ever ran in this country

a great marker horse
 
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Last Installment would have loved that race today I hope he comes back next year.

I think the last time the ground was very soft Master Oats won the race. He'd have beat this lot out of sight. While Bobsworth may improve and be a better horse in the future that was one poor Gold Cup and as for the rest who finished today that's the closest they will ever get imo
 
Tanlic said:
I think the last time the ground was very soft Master Oats won the race. He'd have beat this lot out of sight. While Bobsworth may improve and be a better horse in the future that was one poor Gold Cup and as for the rest who finished today that's the closest they will ever get imo
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So, it was YOU who tweeted C4...

TGB was bang there two out and ran a very similar race to last year. His OR is 164 (I have him on 168 at his very best) and BW beat him 11lbs or so. I'm looking at 175-179 for the winner but I'll want a bit of time to check out the other lines and the time. That puts BW on a par with Best Mate and maybe he will be a possible triple winner if nothing emerges from the novices along the lines of Kauto star or Denman.

Two second-season chasers have humped Long Run. The old guard is dead. We are in the throes of a change of order.
 
Desert Orchid said:
So, it was YOU who tweeted C4...

TGB was bang there two out and ran a very similar race to last year. His OR is 164 (I have him on 168 at his very best) and BW beat him 11lbs or so. I'm looking at 175-179 for the winner but I'll want a bit of time to check out the other lines and the time. That puts BW on a par with Best Mate and maybe he will be a possible triple winner if nothing emerges from the novices along the lines of Kauto star or Denman.

Two second-season chasers have humped Long Run. The old guard is dead. We are in the throes of a change of order.
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but they would have also beat him in his first GC as well
 
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seeing as that Gold Cup was a proper run affair its fair to compare its time with the foxhunters..won by 130 rated Zemsky who carried 4lb more and was 7 seconds slower..

7.5 seconds = approx 45lbs + 130 minus 4lbs = 171 speed figure for long run

so the form and time ratings are near on identical
 
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Desert Orchid said:
So, it was YOU who tweeted C4...

TGB was bang there two out and ran a very similar race to last year. His OR is 164 (I have him on 168 at his very best) and BW beat him 11lbs or so. I'm looking at 175-179 for the winner but I'll want a bit of time to check out the other lines and the time. That puts BW on a par with Best Mate and maybe he will be a possible triple winner if nothing emerges from the novices along the lines of Kauto star or Denman.

Two second-season chasers have humped Long Run. The old guard is dead. We are in the throes of a change of order.
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I can't get Chanel 4 in Thailand, not that I'd want to ;) If Bobsworth is going to win 3 Gold Cups in this era he'd have to be a lot better horse than Best mate was.

Best mate won 3 Gold Cups against trash and was the only decent horse in existence that ran in the Gold Cup at the time. You only need to look back at the 3 horses who finished 2nd in his Gold Cup's to see how bad they were. The ran over 60 times afterwards and won 4 very average races between them..shockingly bad period for staying chasers
 
There's no reason why Long Run couldn't reverse form with either or both of those that finished in front of him today. He's set the race up for the two that beat him trying to make all. Probably not much option today, but a different day with something else taking them round...
 
Fair point SteveM.
Allowing for the fact that Gold Cup was missing Al Ferof, Last Instalment, First Lieutenant among others we should have some good 3 mile races over the coming 2 to 3 years.
Hopefully they all cannot go wrong with injuries etc.
P Nichols must be cussing himself that Tidal Bay and Al Ferof did not make it.
 
Tanlic said:
I can't get Chanel 4 in Thailand, not that I'd want to ;) If Bobsworth is going to win 3 Gold Cups in this era he'd have to be a lot better horse than Best mate was.

Best mate won 3 Gold Cups against trash and was the only decent horse in existence that ran in the Gold Cup at the time. You only need to look back at the 3 horses who finished 2nd in his Gold Cup's to see how bad they were. The ran over 60 times afterwards and won 4 very average races between them..shockingly bad period for staying chasers
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I've been trying to tell people that since BM was winning those races...

BM was a 178-180 horse at his very best yet was being compared with Arkle. Kauto Star or Denman would have had him for breakfast.

BW's Gold Cup is in there with Best Mate's but he's young and can go on. He was about 5lbs better today than in the Hennessy. Another 5lbs' improvement will put him into the 180s. That would be quite a target for next year's second-season horses to overtake.
 
SteveM said:
There's no reason why Long Run couldn't reverse form with either or both of those that finished in front of him today. He's set the race up for the two that beat him trying to make all. Probably not much option today, but a different day with something else taking them round...
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The only way Long Run will ever reverse the form with those in front is when he gets weight from them in a handicap. Which aint gonna happen.
 
can't see how LR can be beating the front two in future..he's got 6 to 7lb to find on his best ever form.

LR's best chance of winning another Grade 1 is if he has such as Captain Chris or somelike in oppo..in fact its always been the way he has won his Grade 1's. If he had met a full on Denman of KS they would have had him for breakfast.

I just don't understand the obsession with trying to make him what he isn't..the poor hoss always runs to the same level but gets knocked because he once got overrated and so any of his subsequent runs "look" below his best..when they aren't
 
What A Friend was on the improve at the time of he 2011 GC, and probably found 5 or 6lbs more for the better ground and first-time blinkers.
That was followed by an abortive run in the National, and he's never been the same horse since
 
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