Road to the 2013 Gold Cup

That's what's wrong with trying to cross referencing the ratings of Grade 1 chasers you keep getting complete balls up.

Long Run got Lumped up for beating Riverside Theatre who clearly isn't a 3 mile horse then he beat Denman who was running his last race but one and was clearly only a shadow of his old self and boom!! Long Run has suddenly gone up 20lbs and he's on 182......Kauto is at the end of his career reduced to a rating of 174 but beats Long Run the comes the bit I don't understand.......it's virtually a 2 horse race but the Handicapper reckons Long Run has run to 182 leaves him on the Mark and sticks Kauto up to 183. Long Run then get stuffed by a 167 and a 160 rated horse then he drops to 173 but next time he can only beat a 162 rated horse a neck what does the handicapper do.......sticks the 162 horse up 7lbs and drops Long Run only 1 lb. and he still doesn't get it right because he gets beaten into 3rd by a horse rated 168 today and he's probably a bit overrated.

It seems to me the handicapper rated Long Run some there in the region of a stone better than he actually was and his true rating lies somewhere between 168 and 173 tops he certainly was never a 182 horse at any stage.
 
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Long Run was also in ascendancy when achieving his KG/GC double, immediately following his first period of intensive tutelage under Yogi Breisner. His jumping frailties have returned since, and he's never likely to regain the peak he reached then (around 176/77 imo).
 
SteveM said:
He was in the form of his life in beating Denman and Kauto. We shouldn't expect that level of performance every time he runs. He is good enough to be there or thereabouts every time he turns out in Grade 1 company and consistently performs above 170. This places him highly as a steeplechaser.
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He may have been Steve but they weren't - Kauto was coming back from a poor run in the KG and an infection and Denman was in decline as his defeat by Diamond Harry in the Hennessy showed . Long Run was overrated as both Denman and KS were well below their best.

As was shown by an 11 year old Kauto producing better form in the autumn and being too good for Long Run .

Long Run is a game , consistent Grade 1 chaser but generally there are two or three better - had SC stood up I am sure he would have been fourth.
 
Long Run was a very early-maturing type. He was the French 3yo hurdling champion, and then their 4yo chasing champion, before he even came to these shores.

He is absolutely out of the top-drawer, and I confess I find it somewhat of a missed opportunity that we'll never know how good he could have been, due to jockey-selection that was/is little more than a vanity exercise.

For all that he was rated too high for his Gold Cup, I'm not convinced connections have ever unlocked his full potential either.
 
Is long run not over-rated besting horses past their best? Form stacks up nicely from last year beaten by better horses this...
 
Ardross said:
He may have been Steve but they weren't - Kauto was coming back from a poor run in the KG and an infection and Denman was in decline as his defeat by Diamond Harry in the Hennessy showed . Long Run was overrated as both Denman and KS were well below their best.

As was shown by an 11 year old Kauto producing better form in the autumn and being too good for Long Run
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I'm not disagreeing with this.
 
Daftest thing so far is Grassy implying had he been ridden by someone else he'd have been some wonder horse. That's nonsense me old mate.

Steve why would they ride Long Run any differently and what difference would it make? It has been blatantly obvious holding Long Run up is not the way to ride him. He has got to be ridden up there or making it. He doesn't have instant acceleration, he makes mistakes and he's happier doing things his own way than he is being restrained. However if you think you know better than connection how he should be ridden who are we to argue. To be honest he has probably gone back a bit since his heyday and he'd maybe have won the race yesterday at his very best but as it stands holding him up wouldn't have made an ounce of difference.......he got a great ride was given every chance and failed.......end of.
 
SteveM said:
This is plain daft.
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It was meant to be a bit daft... in response to the daftness of stating he's as good as ever. He simply isn't as good as he was two years ago.

Maybe the horse is a thinker. SWC mentioned in his interview beforehand that he was pricking his ears the year he won. Maybe he decided when he came back to the track that it wasn't really worth putting in the effort.
 
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First things first, this is what I wrote in my 2011 post-Cheltenham analysis:

A number of questions were answered in this race and a couple of them didn’t make for pleasant reading. Long Run seems as good as the King George form made him out. Denman and Kauto Star seem to have lost their way. Still good enough to be placed in a classy Gold Cup but a long way below their best. What A Friend appears to have improved 7lbs for the first time blinkers but the concern is that it might be dangerous to put money on his repeating this level next time because the race was only 21lbs faster than the Foxhunters. With the big two seemingly past it and Imperial Commander already ten years old, it seems fair to assume Long Run will aptly describe the winner’s reign.
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It was recognisable at the time that Denman And Kauto Star weren’t at their best that day. No one is trying to claim Long Run got his high rating because he beat them at their best. But he also beat them by some way and in so doing also beat the improving course specialist Midnight Chase, who was only 9/1, a further 8 lengths, with the 166-rated Tidal Bay nearly four lengths further back.

It was a biggish field and a solidly-run race. What A Friend is being used to peg back the form purely because he was a 25/1 shot. The others in the first six home were all expected to be involved, according to the betting, since they went off 7/2f, 8/1, 5/1, 9/1 and 16/1.

I think we’re in danger of trying to re-write history to suit personal opinions but when that not the case among racing enthusiasts?

As an aside, Zemsky had yesterday's unlucky Oscar Delta 20 lengths back in third in the FH. Oscar Delta and Salsify (last year's winner) were 20 lengths clear of the third yesterday. Zemsky's form was good that day. It probably bottomed him.
 
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granger said:
Ruby not a gracious loser. Does himself no favours at times
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Go back to when Sam Waley Cohen won the Gold Cup on Long Run and see who the first person to congratulate him was after he had just ben stuffed on his beloved Kauto Star. He was all over Sam telling him well done.


Those scenes are not that of a bad loser I reckon it's just that Ruby Walsh doesn't suffer fools gladly. Like the lovable Thommo who he clearly thinks is an idiot along with most other TV pundits who ask him the most stupid questions at the wrong times.
 
EC1 said:
DO

can you show me..using the OHR scale..how you would rate the GC he won
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I'll give it a go with some reluctance but this kind of platform makes it difficult because of the lack of tabulation etc. That and the opportunity it give the snide snipers to take potshots without contributing anything positive to the debate (and they know who they are.)

(My rating going into the race)
The horse
The OR
[My rating for the race]

(180?t) Long Run 179 [180]
(191?/188e) Denman 179 [176]
(? / 190+ e) Kauto Star 174 [172]
(165p) What A Friend 159 [172]
(167p) Midnight Chase 163 [167]
(172?) Tidal Bay 166 [163]
(166+ s) Pandorama 166 [163]
(173?) Neptune Collonges 168 [162]

Five of the eight have ended up with ratings lower than their OR.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
(165p) What A Friend 159 [172]
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172 for What a Friend seems too high. The only other two occasions where he might have run anywhere near as well as he did that day was in the Aon when he was beaten 3l by Burton Port (ground may have been a bit soft) and Denman's second Hennessy.
 
You could pick any 100 races at random and in 99 of them you could point to one horse and say it looks a bit high. One horse being a bit high in one race doesn't necessarily devalue the form of the others.

Very often I'll put a question mark beside a rating if I think it looks high and see how the form work out afterwards, hence the '?' next to Tidal Bay and Neptune Collonges who had fought out the Argento 30 lengths clear of Punchestowns. The Argento is now one of the top 3 UK trials for the Gold Cup. Neptune won the National a year later and Tidal Bay would have been placed yesterday.
 
thanks DO

i just can't be having WAF on that high a rating tbh...

and thats what it boils down to..if he had shown before or after he was capable then thats different

when i see a horse that has say 7 or 8 similar ratings but in the middle is one that is a 10/12lb above..then i go with the view that the 10/12 above one is over rated
 
Looked at the King George argument.

Do the raters have Silviniaco finishing ahead of Long Run as he had done in the betfair?
 
Tanlic said:
Steve why would they ride Long Run any differently and what difference would it make? It has been blatantly obvious holding Long Run up is not the way to ride him. He has got to be ridden up there or making it. He doesn't have instant acceleration, he makes mistakes and he's happier doing things his own way than he is being restrained.
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I’m not suggesting holding him up. He effectively had to make the pace this time as no one was willing to. But there is a difference between being prominent and setting the race as he did. He is most effective coming from just off the pace as the stable is aware. Indeed I see that Henderson rather subscribes to the view that Long Run set the race up for his stablemate this morning. I’m not saying that Bob’s Worth didn’t fully deserve to win this one. Problem is people tend to see horses as fixed values, that once they have been beaten they might as well be retired. This is just silly.
 
SteveM said:
I’m not suggesting holding him up. He effectively had to make the pace this time as no one was willing to. But there is a difference between being prominent and setting the race as he did. He is most effective coming from just off the pace as the stable is aware. Indeed I see that Henderson rather subscribes to the view that Long Run set the race up for his stablemate this morning. I’m not saying that Bob’s Worth didn’t fully deserve to win this one. Problem is people tend to see horses as fixed values, that once they have been beaten they might as well be retired. This is just silly.
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how can you set the race up for someone by leading as LR did?..you only set the race up for them if you waste energy by going too fast...which wasn't the case in this race. CF didn't set the race up for anyone by leading

if you forget the 180 nonsense with LR you can see why he beats Captain Chris's..but not Bobsworths

i'm on your side here..no way should LR be retired..if the KG lacks any mid 170's 3 mile horses he will win a KG again
 
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Waly Cohen deserves some credit for his ride yesterday. I thought it was a good ride, just got outstayed in the final furlong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It was meant to be a bit daft... in response to the daftness of stating he's as good as ever.
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I wasn’t saying he had run up to his absolute best, simply that he was far from “done” as you maintain and that he is capable of running to a level of form that can match the top handful in training. Had you not said this there would be no argument. I’m not a fan of people subtly trying to change what has been said after the fact to save face. To suggest the horse is finished is silly. He has reversed form with last year’s Gold Cup runner-up The Giant Bolster this season on all three occasions at top level. And apart from pulling up in the KG that one has run to a high level himself. Long Run has in fact improved on last season’s Gold Cup run in all of his appearance this term (and he was placed in that!) This is not a horse that is done with, perhaps you wish to retract this?
 
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