Road to the 2013 Gold Cup

Aragorn said:
Waly Cohen deserves some credit for his ride yesterday. I thought it was a good ride, just got outstayed in the final furlong.
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I think it was a good ride given that they had to make it. Not his fault and as I said the winner was a worthy one on the day. This is not to say this will always be so.
 
SteveM said:
This is not a horse that is done with, perhaps you wish to retract this?
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He is done with as far as the Gold Cup is concerned. He is now struggling to put in performances in the low 170s. This for a horse once thought to be set to overtake Kauto Star and Denman.

His form this season wouldn't win an average Gold Cup let alone a good one.

Time you let him go, Steve.
 
No, he is not done. People said he was done for the Gold Cup yet he was the outstanding e/w bet at 8/1.

He is as likely a KG winner as anything else right now, and will highly likely be value for the Gold Cup e/w next season. How many years is a 172/173 performance not good enough to get in the top 3?
 
SteveM said:
I’m not suggesting holding him up. He effectively had to make the pace this time as no one was willing to. But there is a difference between being prominent and setting the race as he did. He is most effective coming from just off the pace as the stable is aware. Indeed I see that Henderson rather subscribes to the view that Long Run set the race up for his stablemate this morning. I’m not saying that Bob’s Worth didn’t fully deserve to win this one. Problem is people tend to see horses as fixed values, that once they have been beaten they might as well be retired. This is just silly.
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Your second last sentence here is key, and reflects how short sighted punters often are.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He is done with as far as the Gold Cup is concerned. He is now struggling to put in performances in the low 170s. This for a horse once thought to be set to overtake Kauto Star and Denman.

His form this season wouldn't win an average Gold Cup let alone a good one.

Time you let him go, Steve.
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All I'll say to this is that if Long Run isn't entitled to run in the race after winning it and being placed twice we are going to see very small fields in future. When was the last walkover in this race?
 
SteveM said:
This is the only way you can set a race up... by leading.
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instead of trying to be clever why not just answer in a straight way..there are many ways of leading..you say just leading means you set a race up for others..thats just nonsense or all front runners would lose

how did LR set it up for others?
 
EC1 said:
instead of trying to be clever why not just answer in a straight way..there are many ways of leading..you say just leading means you set a race up for others..thats just nonsense or all front runners would lose

how did LR set it up for others?
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Not trying to be clever. Seemed a daft question though. He set it up by given them a target.
 
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SteveM said:
Not trying to be clever. Seemed a daft question though. He set it up by given them a target.
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being a target isn't setting it up on its own though..all front runners are targets..they don't all lose.

it wasn't a daft question..unless you think all front runners lose
 
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EC1 said:
being a target isn't setting it up on its own though..all front runners are targets..they don't all lose.

it wasn't a daft question..unless you think all front runners lose
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Front runners make themselves vulnerable especially at this level. They had little option on this occasion but few front runners win distance races at Cheltenham to do so you must open up a lead and hold on to it. But like I said I not disputing the winner was a worthy one on the day.
 
SteveM said:
All I'll say to this is that if Long Run isn't entitled to run in the race after winning it and being placed twice we are going to see very small fields in future. When was the last walkover in this race?
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By all means let him run in it but let's be realistic. His chances of winning it are only marginally better than The Giant Bolster's.
 
SteveM said:
Who said it wasn't.
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You seemed to be implying the stable made him front run despite being best tracking the pace... Perhaps that's not what you're getting at...

He is most effective coming from just off the pace as the stable is aware. Indeed I see that Henderson rather subscribes to the view that Long Run set the race up for his stablemate this morning.
 
I suspect the ground may be the reason he reversed form with The Giant Bolster . It would seem rather odd for him to be able to reverse form by being subject to a ride that suited him less well than that he was given in 2012.

Watching the 2011 GC again Imperial Commander was cantering and then broke a blood vessel - I suspect had he not he would have retained his crown considering Long Run's performances since.
 
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If he did go down the handicap route, he would have to carry 5lbs less also with the jockey. Cant really see a circumstance in which he would finish ahead of Sir Des Champs or Bobs Worth in any race, barring accidents. Hopefully there are no better horses than Captain Chris in the King George line up for him.
 
why ridiculous?
he will have better ground there than in the Lexus

I don think it is a bad idea, Mullins did it with Florida Pearl
 
At least it happened early in the race.
If he got that kind of a fall near the end of a race like Imperial Call in this race 1996 or Mickael D Hagenuet in Drinmore a few years ago it could poll axe him completely.
 
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