Road to the 2013 Gold Cup

Irish Stamp said:
Don't think he has that much to do Granger - on form he has a cracking chance IMHO, he beat FL 6 lengths yet that one is as short as 16's and he beat FL further than Bobs Worth (8/1) managed in the RSA Chase (people will bring up the Lambro/CTP formline but IMO 2m 5f is a minimum for LI and he'll be much better over longer trips).
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I'd be wary of taking that Fort Leney form at face value. First Lieutenant made a balls of the second last - he probably wouldn't have won anyway, but he would have been a fair deal closer. I'm also inclined to think he improved on whatever he may have done that day in the RSA.

I'd like to see First Lieutenant in the King George actually. Strikes me very much as a horse who would take to Kempton (and one who has no hope in hell of getting 3m2f at Cheltenham).
 
granger said:
His RSA was a one off Trackside or what is your thinking??
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Not a one off by any means. I just got the impression (even more so given his trainer) that his whole campaign was aimed laser-like towards Cheltenham. I thought he travelled best of all in the RSA and was undone by a stronger stayer.

I really like First Lieutenant for what it's worth, but I'd worry that he may just fall between stools in terms of trip at the Festival. Maybe he has strengthened up over the summer and will prove my doubts about his stamina wrong.

Good to have the jumps talk back. I always thought of the Ebor as the unofficial beginning of the real jumps action anyway, particularly with the Triumph Hurdle trial at Doncaster coming up so soon.
 
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Originally Posted by clivex
why is silvinanco conti so long now?
Wouldnt back him at 66/1.....very underwhelming beast
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Im wasnt impressed up until aintree and still need some convincing. But that was a fine run and we know how PN can improve them like no other trainer. The form might not amount to much but way he went about it was eye catching. Im not one for punts on long shots with too many doubts but hes one to watch without a doubt.

My point is that he has drifted a long way from where he was in the market

I dont quite get the non staying argument. As with riverside theatre, thats just not proven. We don't know. As we don't with SDC and quite a few others

Im a bit with Grass here. The second season chasers are possibly much of a muchness at this distance
 
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the staying argument is in the formline Clive.

when a horse races over 5f or 6f most of its career there is probably a good reason for that..people don't say ..well it might stay 10f and the proof of that is its never run it

Bolt's never run a mile...do you think he would be as effective over that distance?..i know i don't..but your argument that he hasn't run it gives him a fifty fifty chance of being so..when in fact its probably a 1 or 2% chance or less
 
RT won the Ryanair despite the track. He was all over the place for most of the race and prevailed because Albertas Run is past it, Medermit never finishes his races and Rubi Light can't utilize his superior jumping on fast ground. He'll never have that luxury in a Gold Cup.
 
That argument also applies to frankel ec. And rt is hardly heavily campaigned is he ? Sorry ec but the fact that he hasnt raced conclusively over that distance so far in a lightish career does not prove anything to me.
 
And theres a lot of difference between identifying a sprinter and middle distance horse than stepping a jumper up a fraction

Remember desert orchids first kgv ?

Im not saying i fancy rt. But the arguments against him staying do not stand up
 
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Havent got his form to hand but might bé better right handed too ? I agree that he looked all at sea at cheltenham
 
clivex said:
And theres a lot of difference between identifying a sprinter and middle distance horse than stepping a jumper up a fraction

Remember desert orchids first kgv ?

Im not saying i fancy rt. But the arguments against him staying do not stand up
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i'll be more specific to to the horse in question Clive..the further he goes the lower his rating is..that to me suggests that where his rating is highest is his best trip. I'll also throw in brother Mayor Of Kilcok who is also a 2.5 miler. Apart from running him over 3m+ another 10 times and people making excuses for why he hasn't won over it there isn't much more to show it tbh
 
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Last Instalment is still on target to return to action some time in the new year.

Trainer Philip Fenton has been delighted with his recuperation over the summer months from the tendon injury which prevented him running at the Cheltenham Festival.

Before injury struck, Last Instalment had stated his case for being the best staying novice chaser in Ireland, with victories in two Grade Ones suggesting the sky was the limit.

"He's in good shape but I wouldn't have thought he'd be running until January time," said Fenton.

"He came back to me in mid-September and he's done lots of road work.

"Crucially his tendons seem fine at the moment, that's the main thing.

"We haven't yet got as far as picking out a race for him, I expect we'll have a sit down in the next six to eight weeks and pick out a target."
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This horse is the most overrated horse i've come across in a long time. Think Sweet Wake!
 
In what way is he over-rated, Hamm?

He at least commands respect for getting to within a few lbs of Sir Des Champs at Leopardstown on only his second (and most recent) chase outing. Anyone judging him as anything other than promising, isn't looking in the form book.

Granted, there are plenty of open questions about him as regards the Gold Cup, but that's generally the case with most second-season chasers - most of whom have more assessable form.
 
Without a shadow of a doubt Flemenstar is the classiest chaser to come out of Ireland for years. Travels like a dream jumps beautifully but if the bookies thought he'd stay the Gold Cup trip he'd be nearer 2/1 than 12/1. I think he could be another Pendil but find the Gold Cup trip just beyond him but you wouldn't want to be opposing him in a 3mile chase on an ordinary track.

I'm not a huge fan of Sir Des Champs and agree with Grassy promising is as far as I would be prepared to go with him. I think Willie Mullins has done a fantastic job placing him but he'll find things much tougher this season

I really like Last Instalment who I reckon would have few problems lying up with them in a Gold Cup, love every yard of of the 3m2f and has the class and stamina to grind them all into the ground.

The only problem is getting there in one piece which of course applies to them all.

25/1 is massive if he really has got over his injury but when I hear tendon trouble and won't be seen until Jan I'd think the best thing to do is wait until he's entered up and declared to run then back him before he does as he'll still be a big price.
 
With his season starting so late i'd fear that the Irish Hennessey will be LI's race

I'm a huge Flemenstar fan and remember reading earlier in season that they plan on bringing him to the UK pre Christmas.

On another note Hanlon was quoted as saying he wanted to bring HC over for the Hennessey at Newbury but the owners didn't approve and he is staying in Ireland for the time being
 
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