Road to the 2013 Gold Cup

Grasshopper said:
Steve, we went through all this last year. You stick-up a list of RPRs and debate from a position where these numbers are essentially infallible. I have to say I find your adherence to RPRs as basically gospel very peculiar indeed.
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Not Infallible, but at least a useful basis... I was asked to put them up to add some clarity to the debate. I have used RPRs, ORs, Timeform (those I have available) and Portway Press ratings which attempt to harmonise others on the same universal scale.

So I'm hardly using RPRs as gospel and wasn't arguing a position (other than to say Best Mate is probably better than DO was telling us he was... i.e. "ordinary"... and it is the Timeform rating rather than the RPR that speaks most strongly for that anyway).

Alternative opinions are very welcome, but opinions are not gospel either. This hopefully establishes a fair basis for debate.
 
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Or as they says in France....F***ing B**tard :mad:

Hope it's not too serious. Even if it's only a matter of a few weeks rest there would be no sense in rushing back without a couple of runs under his belt..............there's always next year.
 
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Tanlic said:
Or as they says in France....f***ing B**tard
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In France ? I thought it was heard all over Europe - generally when having to pay for all manner of extras online , at check-in , at the gate to get on the plane , when some arse tries to sell you a shitty scratchcard or a vastly overpriced coffee
 
Surely on the basis of how strongly he travelled in the Lexus and the fact the trainer has said he'll go for the Gold Cup makes him an obvious choice at 14/1?
 
SlimChance said:
Surely on the basis of how strongly he travelled in the Lexus and the fact the trainer has said he'll go for the Gold Cup makes him an obvious choice at 14/1?
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You're pretty much backing the best horse in the race and hoping he'll be ridden the same way Denman was in '08.
 
For mine, the trainer's just going through the motions to keep the owner happy, and he won't go near the Gold Cup.
Cracking horse though he is, it's wishful thinking, rather than any form he's shown, that encourages others to think he might stay the trip, too.
 
The only reason you could possibly put forward for him not getting 3 miles last time is the way he was ridden.

Holding him up like they did could easily have used up valuable energy that caused him to tire or not see out the trip.

If allowed to do his own thing he may well win the Hennessy but the Gold Cup? That the equivalent of asking the horse to stay 3miles 5 furlongs round Leopardstown.

IMVHO His trainer's a toss pot saying the Ryanair is of no interest.......the horses best and only chance of success at Cheltenham is the Ryanair.

Many a good horse has been ruined by over facing them. The way they are going he could very well end up being on that list.
 
Ridden handy in a slowly run race (most of the field still in contention turning in) is the equivalent of being held up, and still he was rowing before they'd jumped the last. Maybe he'll get away with it in an even slower run race, but he has no pretension to being a proper 3 miler - let alone a lively Gold Cup candidate.
 
I agree 100% with that, reet. I can understand why people want to believe he has the stamina, but it's leap-of-faith stuff based on racecourse evidence. Changing the way the horse is ridden (Lynch did zero wrong in the Lexus, imo) is likely to make little difference, and whilst he may have a chance of winning the Hennesy given certain conditions, there's no way he'd see out the Gold Cup trip. He is a very strange Pricewise pick for Cheltenham.
 
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Have watched the Lexus about 20 times and even though Tidal Bay was amazing to watch-as was Flemenstar -I get the impression that the jockey on First Lieutenant took things a bit too easy in the last 100 yards when he had Flemenstar beaten.
 
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