Road to the 2013 Gold Cup

Hamm said:
SE is on the way down. 11 in a few days, his worst run in a year and a half today. He is one to oppose from here on, no point waiting till he's clearly over the hill. He should run in the QM though, he could still place.
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Unlikely to go off favourite again unless another poor race in Ireland i'd have to think. Would have no doubts that he would still place in the QM. He probably is on the way down, but done well today giving a beating to the useful RL.
 
I’ve compiled the RPRs back to Jodami. Three columns: 1) Best RPR 2) Gold Cup winning RPRs and 3) Best OR. For the purposes of general comparison a list of Timeform top-rated steeplechasers since 1975/76 follow that together with an indication of overall performance for groups of Gold Cup winners before that.

Best RPR, Gold Cup winning RPRs, Best OR

2012 Synchronised 175 175 167
2011 Long Run 181 181 182
2010 Imperial Commander 182 182 185
2009 Kauto Star 191 (175, 185) 193
2008 Denman 184 184 182
2006 War Of Attrition 173 173 174
2005 Kicking King 177 177 175
2004 Best Mate 178 (176, 178, 172) 175
2000 Looks Like Trouble 173 173 170
1999 See More Business 176 172 177
1998 Cool Dawn 172 172 175
1997 Mr Mulligan 174 174 178
1996 Imperial Call 174 174 168
1995 Master Oats 176 176 181
1994 The Fellow 174 170 176
1993 Jodami 172 172 178

In addition the following is a list of Timeform’s highest-rated steeplechasers since Chasers & Hurdlers began in 1975/6 (excluding Sprinter Sacre):

191 Kauto Star
187 Desert Orchid
184+ Moscow Flyer
184 Burrough Hill Lad
184 Long Run

(Selected others: Best Mate 182, Captain Christy 182, Denman 181, Master Minded 179, One Man 179).

There is a list of others going back several decades rated on rough equivalents: 169-174 (designated Average) 175-179 (Superior), 180-190 (Great) and 212 (Greatest) i.e. Arkle. Those 168 and below fall into the Inferior or Poor categories (...as Gold Cup winners that is).
 
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Thanks SteveM.
A very useful list that puts a lot of pet theories to bed.
(Not that I have anything against pets being a vet and all!)
It is all on the day, horses for courses and the Gold Cup is still there for the winning with up to 10 horses having the ability to win just to put their best feet forward.
Pity Cool Ground, Garrison Savannah and Nortons Coin are missing as they would reduce the average even further.
 
Interestingly there is strong consensus on some and differences on others.

The Long Run figures are very consistent (all four measures within 3lb of each other): Best RPR 181, Gold Cup Winning RPR 181, OR 182 and Timeform 184. While Best Mate is as high as 182 and as low as 172 on these same indicators: Best RPR 178, Gold Cup Winning RPRs 176, 178 and 172 OR 175 and Timeform 182.
 
EC1 said:
thanks Steve

the average for a GC winner is 176 if i counted right..that should make the above average and below average ranking easy to see now
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Yes the guide categories have anything of 175 and above as Superior and 169-174 as Average (...that is for Gold Cup winners).
 
Give Best Mate his due his third GC win was on slower going compared to previous 2; Paul Carberry kept him in on last bend so he had to hold up, change out and go again.
That and the relative proximity of Sir Rembrant would lessen his RPR.
He was never going to lose the race all the same.
Possible also the bare ratings for 2010 and 2011 are generous, not in any way faulting either winner or race as they were fantastic exciting races.
 
Euronymous said:
Timeform rated the achievement rather than the race with Best Mate.
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Yes... as I've said I've given the three actual RPRs for BM's Gold Cup winning performances, but the OR column and the supplementary Timeform table are included for comparative purposes showing highest awarded rating.

The Long Run figures are very consistent for example (all four measures within 3lb of each other): Best RPR 181, Gold Cup Winning RPR 181, OR 182 and Timeform 184. While Best Mate is as high as 182 and as low as 172 on these same indicators: Best RPR 178, Gold Cup Winning RPRs 176, 178 and 172 OR 175 and Timeform 182.
 
edgt said:
Give Best Mate his due his third GC win was on slower going compared to previous 2; Paul Carberry kept him in on last bend so he had to hold up, change out and go again.
That and the relative proximity of Sir Rembrant would lessen his RPR.
He was never going to lose the race all the same.
Possible also the bare ratings for 2010 and 2011 are generous, not in any way faulting either winner or race as they were fantastic exciting races.
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Indeed. I think from this we can safely conclude that it is reasonable to rate Best Mate as something better than "ordinary" (albeit not the greatest of Gold Cup winners).
 
i think you would have to be one very unlucky horse to win 3 GC's and be called a below average winner..or even average

he won 3 GC's ffs..

the odds on having 3 seasons where he had absolutely nothing to beat is quite high

even if he was around today..he is still rated higher than the clutch of horses we have now..and i doubt anyone can say this crop is below average oppo....i don't recall having so many decent 3 milers..but purely on ratings BM would win this years race

i don't really believe in very bad years..even when horses don't always show big ratings one or two always run above their best to challenge in the top races..look at CC in the KG for example...Yahoo against DO etc
 
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EC1 said:
...Yahoo against DO etc
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I was on Yahoo at 100/1 that day as I reckoned he was the only runner sure to act in the ground. I don't believe for a nanosecond he ran any better that day than in any other race. DO's guts were enough to see him prevail despite running miles below his best (but probably as well as he ever ran at Cheltenham).
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was on Yahoo at 100/1 that day as I reckoned he was the only runner sure to act in the ground. I don't believe for a nanosecond he ran any better that day than in any other race. DO's guts were enough to see him prevail despite running miles below his best (but probably as well as he ever ran at Cheltenham).
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This is your finest yet. Chapeau.
 
I think it is fair to say that Best Mate is a very good winner of the Gold Cup....he is not up with Arkle or Kauto Star....or indeed up with Denman, Desert Orchid, etc.

It sounds like the categories Steve is talking about (assume they are from the Randall book) are fair.

The best thing about Best Mate was his consistency and longevity. A couple of horses have burned brightly just once or twice and then they're toast for the rest of their careers.
 
Steve, we went through all this last year. You stick-up a list of RPRs and debate from a position where these numbers are essentially infallible. I have to say I find your adherence to RPRs as basically gospel very peculiar indeed.

Looks Like Trouble and The Fellow had lower Gold Cup-winning RPRs than Syncronised?

There you go, mate.That's all the evidence you need that they are untold horse-sh*t.

Edit: Maybe "untold horse-sh*t" is too strong. "Questionable" is probably a more apt, if less flowery, description.
 
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My belief (untested by facts) is that there has been inflation in top-end RPR's in the past 10 years. Has anybody ever tested this fact? I wouldn't mind seeing an average of the top 50 performers by RPR over fences each year since the nineties, to test whether I am talking outta my hoop again.

So although Synchronised looks to have put in a better performance than LLT....was his Gold Cup relatively better than LLT's when measured against the average of the top 50 chasers from that season?
 
LLT was also an RSA winner and nothing will ever convince me Nick Dundee would have beaten him that day. Synchronized was all guts. How much class he had was debatable.
 
Bar the Bull said:
My belief (untested by facts) is that there has been inflation in top-end RPR's in the past 10 years. Has anybody ever tested this fact? I wouldn't mind seeing an average of the top 50 performers by RPR over fences each year since the nineties, to test whether I am talking outta my hoop again.

So although Synchronised looks to have put in a better performance than LLT....was his Gold Cup relatively better than LLT's when measured against the average of the top 50 chasers from that season?
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The horses who followed LLT home were; Florida Pearl, Strong Promise and See More Business.

The horses who followed Synchronised home were; The Giant Bolster, Long Run and Burton Port.

It isn't even remotely close, imo, and HTF Synchronised's win gets a higher rating is almost impossible to comprehend...........until you look at the ridiculously high mark awarded to Long Run for his Gold Cup, and then you can sort of see why RPR has to lift Synchronised's rating in order that he doesn't look a muppet for giving LR 180.

Garbage in = Garbage out.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I agree...although I see you didn't mention the 5th home in 2000. :)
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I figured that basket-cases Karinga Bay and Time For Rupert cancelled each other out more-or-less to the ounce, Bar, and therefore adding them was superfluous. :lol:
 
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