Road to the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup

HawkWing said:
Hennessy winner and the Lexus winner were behind today. Culloty had his first winner since August in Spring Heeled. The Giant Bolster came into today race in better form than when chasing up Bobs Worth, Long Run, Synchronised in the last two years. On His Own beat the King George third last time out and was clearly in top form, being supplemented for the race. Had those three not bothered turning up and SC beat BW by 3l, it would be classed as a good gold cup. A rematch of what could have happened last year. Hennessey winner well beaten.

Dont think SC was legless after the last either. Kept on well. Beaten 1l, increasing the distance on BW and Lyreen Legend from the last.
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Straw clutching .

Calamity only had four horses running.

No grounds whatsoever for suggesting TGB was a better horse or in better form . The Argento was a joke race .

The form line with Mount B is highly questionable but even so even if taken literally he should have been several lengths behind SC.

SC out on his feet hanging both ways after the last - not staying on at all.

Bad GC end of story .
 
Bob's Worth very disappointing . He clearly , judging by today and the Betfair has lost quite a lot of pace . He is evidently fragile too .

Champagne Fever , O'Faolains Boy and Taquin de Seuil all look more likely winners of next year's GC than the front three today .
 
granger said:
I wonder did he really not 'eat up'?
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He had a better breakfast than any of us. As soon as Fenton confirmed LI, FL was pulled out. How many times has this happened in Ireland this season with Gigginstown, it must be near double figures. The Mullins trained, Giggginstown owned novice Devils Bride served a ban in the autumn after a late withdrawl.
 
Ardross said:
Straw clutching .

Calamity only had four horses running.

No grounds whatsoever for suggesting TGB was a better horse or in better form . The Argento was a joke race .

The form line with Mount B is highly questionable but even so even if taken literally he should have been several lengths behind SC.

SC out on his feet hanging both ways after the last - not staying on at all.

Bad GC end of story .
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Before going into this Bobs Worth was 5/5 at Cheltenham, was in better form than ever showing clear acceleration off a slow pace to win the Lexus. SC stayed on strongly to win a King George and it was the second Gold Cup where he cantered down the hill. Hennessey winner miles back, Knockara Beau (bustled up Long Run last time out) beaten the right type of distance. SC and BW and TGB ran pretty close as you would expect them to, but were beaten. BW didnt finish as you would have expected. SC stayed ahead of him - and I think the "hanging" was Fehily looking for the opposition. He was deliberately staying in Bobs Worths way when he thought he was the main challenger. (in a big bucks vs Voler la Vedette way) Had BW and SC never threatened and finished fourth and fifth Id take the point, but I think its just laziness from people who see an outsider winning an react by saying awful race.I think its perfectly obvious that Lord Windermere was a lot better today than at anytime this year. On His Own was campaigned to peaking at Aintree, and is ahead of plan, and TGB has run his third great race in the Gold Cup.

All of them are vulnerable to an improver, but dont see any fluke about the result and I dont see BW and SC suddenly becoming mediocre animals. Writing off the race is lazy.
 
HawkWing said:
Before going into this Bobs Worth was 5/5 at Cheltenham, was in better form than ever showing clear acceleration off a slow pace to win the Lexus. SC stayed on strongly to win a King George and it was the second Gold Cup where he cantered down the hill. Hennessey winner miles back, Knockara Beau (bustled up Long Run last time out) beaten the right type of distance. SC and BW and TGB ran pretty close as you would expect them to, but were beaten. BW didnt finish as you would have expected. SC stayed ahead of him - and I think the "hanging" was Fehily looking for the opposition. He was deliberately staying in Bobs Worths way when he thought he was the main challenger. (in a big bucks vs Voler la Vedette way) Had BW and SC never threatened and finished fourth and fifth Id take the point, but I think its just laziness from people who see an outsider winning an react by saying awful race.I think its perfectly obvious that Lord Windermere was a lot better today than at anytime this year. On His Own was campaigned to peaking at Aintree, and is ahead of plan, and TGB has run his third great race in the Gold Cup.

All of them are vulnerable to an improver, but dont see any fluke about the result and I dont see BW and SC suddenly becoming mediocre animals. Writing off the race is lazy.
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On His Own cannot jump National fences he was stuffed in the Becher Chase for goodness sake .

SC did not stay he ran like the best horse in the race otherwise. The idea BW ran to his Lexus form is laughable - he did not pick up at all and veered sharply left after the last. Triolo d Alene was sandwiched two out and never recovered so not a reliable form line .

It is not lazy at all - the GC has been won by a 154 horse beating one rated 161 and another rated 160 in a photo . Whilst ratings above 175 tend to be very much opinion based due to the very limited pool that suggests a very bad GC where the winner has put in a performance in the low 160s .
 
An amazing race.
Remember the ground was not watered unlike other years.
With that extra spring in the ground it is likely horses were going that step too fast and not liking it.
LW and TGB were the only ones not to go with the pace chiefly because they could not.
On His Own was ridden into every fence and looked cooked at final bend a la Dawn Run yet nearly got back up.He murdered TGB over the last 2 fences doing what tired horses do.
Like Jezki, Sire De Grugy, Tom Scu , RSA 2013 was written off and under rated.
2014 will go down as the year of the "Stopped Clocks " which are right twice daily.
Would that some of the rest of us, myself included, had that level of consistency !

Met Brian of this parish who was involved with Lord Noelie, Ballyconn et al at Cheltenham Wednesday. He reminded me that Lord Noelie is Jim Culloty's hack.
Three Cheltenham winners resident in Churchtown; first time since 1950 that has happened.
 
Ardross said:
On His Own cannot jump National fences he was stuffed in the Becher Chase for goodness sake .

SC did not stay he ran like the best horse in the race otherwise. The idea BW ran to his Lexus form is laughable - he did not pick up at all and veered sharply left after the last. Triolo d Alene was sandwiched two out and never recovered so not a reliable form line .

It is not lazy at all - the GC has been won by a 154 horse beating one rated 161 and another rated 160 in a photo . Whilst ratings above 175 tend to be very much opinion based due to the very limited pool that suggests a very bad GC where the winner has put in a performance in the low 160s .
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All confirmation bias. SC beating BW by 2l and the race is rated in the 170s. That three horses were ahead of him doesnt reduce their performance.

I dont think Bobs Worth ran to his Lexus form. I dont think that today run means that last year's Gold Cup destroyed him or is somehow incapable of running to his lexus form again. It wasnt his day.
 
HawkWing said:
All confirmation bias. SC beating BW by 2l and the race is rated in the 170s. That three horses were ahead of him doesnt reduce their performance.

I dont think Bobs Worth ran to his Lexus form. I dont think that today run means that last year's Gold Cup destroyed him or is somehow incapable of running to his lexus form again. It wasnt his day.
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Well the performances of the 160s horses shows that they have run below their best . I am pretty sure that all the Grade 1 staying chase ratings since 2011 have been skewed by Long Run being given far too high a figure for winning that GC when Denman was in decline and Kauto was convalescent . I adored Kauto but don't for a moment think he was a 183 horse when he won his last KG a rating given because Lr was rated 182 - he should have been 172..

I think BW is a low 170s horse not a 180 and SC about 170 at best .
 
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Indeed CL.
Davy Russell gave Jim great confidence after Leopardstown.
Jim was in Owner Trainers Bar telling all and sundry that he would be spot on for Gold Cup.
Most of us (myself included) thought he was on something !
My passenger that day doubled his ante post bet on the way home however.
 
Ardross said:
Well the performances of the 160s horses shows that they have run below their best . I am pretty sure that all the Grade 1 staying chase ratings since 2011 have been skewed by Long Run being given far too high a figure for winning that GC when Denman was in decline and Kauto was convalescent .
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Performances from 155-160 horses Teaforthree, Houblon des Obeaux, Knockara beau, and Triolo d'Alene suggest that those involved in the finish all ran better than 160s. Doubt that there would be few doubting the form/quality of the race if the first three didnt run. Im guessing BW not at his best, and SC proving his guts and stamina.
 
Teaforthree's rating comes from longer trips
KB from softer going
T de A was mullered two out and faded
H de O needs softer ground

Far from reliable evidence .

Just watched it again - SC's stride looks to be visibly shortening to me .

It was a bad GC - evidence is overwhelming.
 
Both Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti ran a long way below form, probably owing to the ground.
BW was being niggled from a long way out; much as he was last year, only this year the ground and steadier pace didn't allow his stamina to kick in. He was murdered at Haydock in similar circumstances.
As PN made clear before the race, SC is a slow horse who just stays, and though he hung right and left away from Fehily's whip, he ran on straight and true up the run-in for the brief interval the thrashing subsided. On softer ground at Newbury, he gave The Giant Bolster 4lb and ran away from him
The first 3 wouldn't have seen where the two favourites went, on more forgiving ground.
 
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reet hard said:
As PN made clear before the race, SC is a slow horse who just stays, and though he hung right and left away from Fehily's whip, he ran on straight and true up the run-in for the brief interval the thrashing subsided. On softer ground at Newbury, he gave The Giant Bolster 4lb and ran away from him
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This is the point. There are good reasons why people expected SC and BW to run away from the horses that beat them. On the whole, they were capable of the best form. They were the favourites. But those thinking that The Giant Bolster wasnt going to run his best race of the season today haven't looked at the pattern of the last two years. Its not a surprise that he bettered his Newbury run today. And if the race was run again in a weeks time, I'd fancy TGB to beat SC in the same conditions.
 
Nick Mordin from last week. Congrats. Couldnt have found it myself.

"Since 1989 four of the 11 RSA winners to run in the next year's Gold Cup scored. Three of the six that won took the RSA after less than a dozen lifetime starts, which is what Lord Windermere achieved last year.

Last time out Lord Windermere moved really well for a long way but got caught completely flat footed when Last Instalment stepped up the gallop. This is the norm for him on flat tracks.

Around undulating courses like Cheltenham he's won four from six and finished second to useful rivals over inadequate distances in his two losses. I see Lord Windermere as the one to beat in the Gold Cup and just cant understand his astronomical odds"
 
HawkWing said:
Nick Mordin from last week. Congrats. Couldnt have found it myself.

"Since 1989 four of the 11 RSA winners to run in the next year's Gold Cup scored. Three of the six that won took the RSA after less than a dozen lifetime starts, which is what Lord Windermere achieved last year.

Last time out Lord Windermere moved really well for a long way but got caught completely flat footed when Last Instalment stepped up the gallop. This is the norm for him on flat tracks.

Around undulating courses like Cheltenham he's won four from six and finished second to useful rivals over inadequate distances in his two losses. I see Lord Windermere as the one to beat in the Gold Cup and just cant understand his astronomical odds"
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he gets lots of criticism...but one thing Nick does is look for reasons why a horse is likely to run well or not...rather than just looking at a horses rating each race and expect them to produce it no matter what

i'm surprised that people want to decry the race tbh...i thought TGB was in with a good chance today with the headgear that so clearly improved him last time out.

I didn't fancy Bobs Worth or SC because it just was not going to be a real stayers race like last year...i'm not surprised they got outpaced up the hill

no..the race isn't a high rater..but as with many races..those with the high ratings will struggle if conditions stop them producing them
 
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