Road To The 2014 Derby

i think some some people have fallen for the hype tbh...the horse has run to its level today...anything above that level is all in the mind
 
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EC1 said:
I don't see it DO..I posted after he won last time..speed figure today 111 [incl wfa]...which i think is his level...i was amazed when he was getting all sorts of big speed figures from TF

i just wasn't impressed like everyone else was at Newmarket...overrated by some way imo



****i've amended the going allowance since i first did them..it was actually 113
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Wouldn't you say 113 is a pretty smart time rating for a seasonal debutant?

He also did it with a degree of comfort.

He also smashed a number of 100+ rated opponents to kingdom come. I suspect they let him down a bit after Newmarket, having realised he might have overdone it a bit. Either that or it took more out of him than seemed apparent at the time so today could have been a bit of a bounce.

Jinnyj's observation about his condition strikes me as quite telling though.

I see True Story is now 16/1 for Epsom. What was he before the race? I was hoping for 25s, to add to the 33/1 I got about Orchestra after the Chester race.
 
Code: 
[so History may be around the corner ! /CODE]
  
 if Australia wins history will be made as AOB would be the 1st trainer to win three derby's on the bounce
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wouldn't you say 113 is a pretty smart time rating for a seasonal debutant?

He also did it with a degree of comfort.

He also smashed a number of 100+ rated opponents to kingdom come. I suspect they let him down a bit after Newmarket, having realised he might have overdone it a bit. Either that or it took more out of him than seemed apparent at the time so today could have been a bit of a bounce.

Jinnyj's observation about his condition strikes me as quite telling though.

I see True Story is now 16/1 for Epsom. What was he before the race? I was hoping for 25s, to add to the 33/1 I got about Orchestra after the Chester race.
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113 is ok...but TF had it mid 120's:blink:...which is why people think its underperformed...obviously if you believe that figure..it has

TS won't win the Derby...and neither will Australia..an even bigger talking horse...its the season for them...anyone remember Leonardo Da Vinci?
 
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True Story should be a lot better on faster ground. And some horses just don't take to York. Straw clutching to a large extent though


I don't see how Australia can be called a talking horse. His form is rock solid and he will improve for the step up. We're not in Tenby territory or anywhere near it.
 
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Given that TGG won today, it would seem that Australia deserves to be very short for the Derby and has very probably run the best trial. It seems generally accepted and expected that he will be even better at the Derby trip. He wouldn't be my kind of bet but it is hard to see past him.

Why don't you think he'll win?
 
not seeing how TGG gives any credence to Australia whatsoever..that was over a straight undulating mile...today was a flat left turning track...how can one horse measure the other two under those circumstances?...then the course we are talking in future about is totally different to both.

what exactly has Australia done?...on paper if trained by anyone else would 8/1 10/1 territory...yes of course he can win...but betting it less than those odds is the worst value this decade
 
Euronymous said:
True Story should be a lot better on faster ground. And some horses just don't take to York. Straw clutching to a large extent though


I don't see how Australia can be called a talking horse. His form is rock solid and he will improve for the step up. We're not in Tenby territory or anywhere near it.
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not far of Tenby territory imo;)

we'll see anyway...a shocking bad value bet imo...but when race is over..no one will remember or learn owt from what passes on this thread...so whats the point in pointing it out really?:lol:

anyone that fancies it...lump on is what i say...i just think its best way to poorhouse
 
EC1 said:
not seeing how TGG gives any credence to Australia whatsoever..that was over a straight undulating mile...today was a flat left turning track...how can one horse measure the other two under those circumstances?...then the course we are talking in future about is totally different to both.

what exactly has Australia done?...on paper if trained by anyone else would 8/1 10/1 territory...yes of course he can win...but betting it less than those odds is the worst value this decade
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I take it you'll be laying him ball deep EC? I'll take 7's if you are offering :)
 
Euronymous said:
Not a chance in hell. Night of Thunder won relatively easily and was value for another couple of wickets given the path he took near the end.
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So what you are saying is horses never reverse placing with horses who beat them easily?

AOB has never made a secret of the fact the Derby is the horses target.

He even commented a couple of season ago about the 2000 guineas no longer being as important as it once was.

Unless Night of Thunder goes on to win several Group 1 races, which I sincerely doubt, he'll be forgotten in a year, whereas Australia should he win the Derby and the Arc eg he'll be worth a fortune at stud and the fact he lost in the 2000 Guineas won't matter a jot.

There is no way on this earth Australia was 100% at Newmarket. AOB had already stated he would need the run and Joesph had to get after him over 2 furlong out.

If you are correct and a much fitter Australia couldn't make up 3/4 length with Night of Thunder then he'll struggle at Epsom.
 
Tanlic said:
So what you are saying is horses never reverse placing with horses who beat them easily?

AOB has never made a secret of the fact the Derby is the horses target.

He even commented a couple of season ago about the 2000 guineas no longer being as important as it once was.

Unless Night of Thunder goes on to win several Group 1 races, which I sincerely doubt, he'll be forgotten in a year, whereas Australia should he win the Derby and the Arc eg he'll be worth a fortune at stud and the fact he lost in the 2000 Guineas won't matter a jot.

There is no way on this earth Australia was 100% at Newmarket. AOB had already stated he would need the run and Joesph had to get after him over 2 furlong out.

If you are correct and a much fitter Australia couldn't make up 3/4 length with Night of Thunder then he'll struggle at Epsom.
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Night of Thunder's two year old speed figures were stunning according to Willoughby on RUK the other day . I don't see why finishing a close third to him and Kingman in a quick Guineas where the 10th has now won the dante is a bad thing or gives any reason to rubbish the winner .

As for anything AOB says about the importance of races - pinches of salt all round . If Australia wins the DErby what price a he is fast enough to win the JUly Cup comment this year ?
 
He even commented a couple of season ago about the 2000 guineas no longer being as important as it once was.
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this looks like a misquote to me grp 1 winning form over a mile reads very well on a stallions CV

coolmore have been buying a lot of war fronts lately and their targets would more likely be the 2000 gns as opposed to the derby in which they most likely wouldn't have the stamina for
 
I had never seen the Derrinstown until yesterday but must say I was impressed with Ebanoran, and don't understand his price compared to the other two. Looked plenty green enough and the one to take out of the race. Very well-bred, and at 20s, looks a very nice bet each way.
 
I'm not 100 per cent certain Australia is going to run at Epsom for two reasons -first the rumours about bad gallops and the subsequent market support for stable companions which seems to be genuine enough and not a figment of bookmaker imaginations.
Second -after he did a gallop at The Curragh in March Pat Keane quoted APOB as saying the horse would avoid soft ground-today is the 24th May and there seems to be no sign of summer kicking in.I know things can change very fast with two weeks to go but a softish ground Derby isn't out of the question.
If I was on Australia at a short price I would be very nervous.
 
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