Road To The 2014 Derby

My failure to back Adelaide at 300 plus on Betfair could wreck my head for the summer.I expect him to win tomorrow and take his chance at Epsom.
 
Will be interesting to see who Moore plumps for. Orchestra ran a very nice race at Chester and travelled like a dream. I'm not convinced he'll jump ship to Geoffrey, who also ran a fine race.
 
Monday - Mainly dry odd shower
Tuesday - Cloudy couple of showers
Wednesday - Cloudy passing shower
Thursday - Cloudy with showers
Friday - Some cloud, some sun, odd shower
Saturday - Cloudy with a couple of showers

Predicted 30 mm. rain but no snow.
 
Come the day, I expect there will be two or three books offering odds without Australia. I might get involved then.

(I already have a couple of ante-post bets. Kingston Hill before the Guineas :rolleyes: and Orchestra @ 33/1 just after he won at Chester.)
 
Anyone know if True Story is an intended runner? Not exactly happy with my 11-1 ante post bet but I'd at least like a run for my money...


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BennyB said:
Anyone know if True Story is an intended runner? Not exactly happy with my 11-1 ante post bet but I'd at least like a run for my money...
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Out to 20-1 with Ladbrokes and 14's and 16's elsewhere, doesn't look a very positive outlook Benny I'm afraid.
 
17 confirmed for Saturday, headed by Australia, including one supplementary entry in Romsdal.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Come the day, I expect there will be two or three books offering odds without Australia. I might get involved then.

(I already have a couple of ante-post bets. Kingston Hill before the Guineas :rolleyes: and Orchestra @ 33/1 just after he won at Chester.)
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I'm tooled up on Kingston Hill, but Australia (who I also backed for this before the Guineas) will be very difficult to beat, his stamina profile is just about perfect for the Derby.
 
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BennyB said:
Anyone know if True Story is an intended runner? Not exactly happy with my 11-1 ante post bet but I'd at least like a run for my money...


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This is looking a bit better now the Dante form has been boosted and the ground is drying. Still not confident though.


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Gamla Stan said:
There is no way that Snow Sky goes off 25/1 for this (current exchange price).
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Stoute sounded surprisingly confident about this one. He couldn't see him out of the places; I was surprised by the comment as I'd not considered him.
 
Hamm said:
GS, any thoughts on Ebanoran?
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Suppose he will have his ground but Irish races he's run in don't look very quick and suspect he'll run a nice 6th/7th and go for the Leger.

One at a massive price I will back on the day is Sudden Wonder.

I'm on Orchestra too who I still think is a bet at 16, I can't understand Romsdal's price in relation to him, I thought he just made cheap late gains at Chester in crap ground. As well as Snow Sky who as I say, is just not a 25 shot given connections, never mind the fact he posted a useful time at Lingfield (quicker than all bar Guineas runners on my figs). I think the rain will be in his favour.

I suspect Western Hymn could be the forgotten horse on the day too unless Pricewise gets stuck into him.

So far, Snow Sky my strongest bet with Orchestra as a back up but may play Western Hymn and Sudden Wonder on the day.
 
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Hamm said:
Snow Sky barely looks listed class - what am I missing?
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I think after the two Guineas runners, they're all much of a muchness. He was impressive at Lingfield I thought and will handle the ground. The time of the race was very very good and would win a lot of renewals of this. Also whilst I hate using trainer records as a reason for a bet as I think it's flawed, there is no doubt that Stoute's record will have an influence of the price come the day and I think you'll be taking 27 now something which will be around 15 on Saturday afternoon.

Australia and KH set the standard but it's in their price.
 
Spot on, Gamila. Only logged into say I'm with Snow Sky, solely because Stoute has won this race five times. Then have read your posts which I'm in agreement with.

Keep topping up, fella.:)
 
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Great to see Oisin Murphy getting a ride less than 12 months after riding his first winner. The last Kerryman to win an Epsom Derby was Bernard Dillon nearly 100 years ago so not before time for a Kerry jockey to try again.
Epsom Clerk Of the Course spoke of possibly watering if needs be; can you believe it ?
John Oxx not a man to needlessly send a horse to Epsom; Oasis Dream not a sire you consider as a source of St Leger winners usually !
 
marble said:
Spot on, Gamila. Only logged into say I'm with Snow Sky, solely because Stoute has won this race five times. Then have read your posts which I'm in agreement with.

Keep topping up, fella.:)
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I do think trainer stats are a bit flawed though as he has had the best horses sent to him but I do think it'll become a factor in the market on Saturday and you'll be in a strong position by taking a price today or tomorrow. I reckon you'll be able to lay a bit off if that's your thing (isn't mine!) come 3.45pm Saturday.
 
Hamm said:
GS, any thoughts on Ebanoran?
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I’ve backed Australia and Kingston Hill. As I see it the three who might upset a return are: Geoffrey Chaucer, True Story (neither of which I’m totally convinced by) and Ebanoran, who could be the fly in the ointment.
 
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