Road To The 2014 Derby

1. Australia
2. Geoffrey Chaucer

Dont really care after that but sure I'll go for Fascinating Rock to follow them home.
 
1. True Story (would love to see Fallon land another derby today)
2. Australia
3. Enanoran
 
Perpetual said:
They seem to have missed the heaviest showers
Click to expand...

Yes, according to Metcheck and the BBC there shouldn't be any more rain.

Expect Australia to shorten up a good bit through the afternoon. I took the 5/2 with a view to laying it off.

I'd love to see it win spectacularly. I'd love to see any of them win spectacularly so long as the form is top class.
 
Someone just made a good point on Twitter that the front four in the betting were all beat last time out, how many times has this happened in the Derby market?!

I think Australia takes all the beating and Kingston Hill follows him home if they both improve for the trip as expected as the Guineas form is by far the best form on offer by a distance, however it's in their prices and I personally can't take those prices. I think if those two bomb, the placed horses SPs will be like a phone number. I'm chancing a few rags and will probably play them with the front two in a trifecta.

Arod - The Dante form obviously looks stronger than first impressions and it's only his fourth run but any rain would be a concern judging by previous connections comments. Spencer also puts me off after another howler yesterday. I'd probably go in if he hits 25 on the machine.

Romsdal - I backed Orchestra after Chester but couldn't join in now and I do think this one made cheap ground up against the AOB horse late on but he will handle any rain and again, could be another improver as a lightly raced sort. If he hits around 30 on machine, he's a bet.

Sudden Wonder - Definitely a bet this thing. Impressive last backend and did it well enough in that sales race at Newmarket. His times are very good and he got trapped wide when making his effort at Lingfield and motored down the outside and was closing all the time. The extra trip might help but suspect he'll be a fast finishing 6th and go for the Leger. Definite bet at 66/1 though.

Impulsive Moment - Another lightly raced one which could improve. Had a nice break since finishing behind Western Hymn in terrible ground at Sandown. He was the last off the bridle and just seemed to tire up the hill in the ground and having his first run for four months. His action looks like he doesn't want masses of rain to me but undoubtedly a bet at 100/1 ew.
 
Absolutely hacking it down this morning in North London.

If they are getting this in Epsom we could be looking at soft ground by 4pm.
 
At the moment an Australia win would knock me out of the game for months due to a decent lay during the week at 2.62 -I thought there would be a lot more rain at this stage -might be time to guarantee a profit.
 
While you don't necessarily want to back Australia at a short price to do something else new (i.e. run on soft ground) I don't think there would be a major concern. If anything it might actually suit him.
 
I've put £2 e/w on Kingfisher and my Dad has done the same on Western Hymn. Last of the big spenders :)

Not a million miles from Epsom - in fact about 10 and it has been very wet here this morning but now clear.
 
No great pace on early there, and could quite well see it being borderline g/f by the time of the big one.
 
69.63 for a woodcote... ..depends how good the winner is obviously..taking the 2nd horse time as a standard puts the ground bang middle good imo..

fast ground wooodcote's have been won in 68 seconds..ish

one thing is for certain..there is no ease in it

like you say RH..another hour drying
 
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Just watched all of the trials again. On looks Orchestra and Geoffrey Chaucer would be my pick. Guineas form is rock solid and Australia ran a massive race; Kingston Hill looks a bit slow. Western Hymn has a strange head carriage. Dante form is looking stronger now and Arod stayed on well. Orchestra was nearly caught by Romsdal last time and did get a better run but he looked like he'll improve and I think he will run a big race. The Derrinstown looks a quality race but it was messy. I think it's strong form and with a 3lb pull and R Moore on board I reckon Chaucer will reverse the form.

I have a suspicion Australia might not stay and despite him being the clear form pick I've backed his stable mates Orchestra and Geoffrey Chaucer e/w. Moore hasn't finished out of the first three in the last 4 years...
 
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