Road To The 2014 QM Champion Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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Double Handful said:
Hmmmm... Captain Conan drifted to 12.5 on Betfiar this evening.

Still holding at 6/1 will almost all the bookies, 7/1 best price with a few.

But 12.5 on Betfair is quite a disparity...
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Smart people hoovering up mug money. Captain Conan is a tripless boat and can't win this.
 
Can't be having Cue Card going for this. I know he was giving a load of weight away but he was soundly stuffed at Exeter. It is a weak race this year so he would have some kind of chance. He would trot up in the Ryanair but I can see why they are going for Gold. Not totally convinced that he won't get the Gold Cup trip if it is decent ground. I know Haydock is a far cry from Cheltenham but he wasn't stopping that day. The King George was a bit baffling as after the last he certainly wasn't losing any more ground. He certainly adds spice to the race and I'm glad he's going for it. Though obviously from a betting angle he would be a shoe in for the Ryanair.
 
tiggers1972 said:
For a horse who's already cuffed the jolly over course and distance he's some tripless boat!
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In November 2012. The Champion Chase will be run in March 2014. SDG is a different horse to the one Captain Conan faced that day. Captain Conan has always been a huge and very mature horse and tripless at the top level. I'm not sure he's improving and I'd be far more interested in Benefficient from that form line.

People are also reading too much into SDG's Cheltenham form, the defeat to Kid Cassidy was a bad ride from Moore and a great one from McCoy.
 
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To answer the 'can't quite take to him' question, I just think SDG has possibly won some really soft races, rather than me not 'being a fan'.

In Sacre's absence, what is there really to beat?

Not a great deal, in my view. There is next to no strength-in-depth in the 2m chase division; an inevitable outcome of Finian's Rainbow and Sizing Erope entering their twilight, and a crop of graduating novices, who were much-of-a-muchness in the absence of Simonsig. It's very conducive to a good handicapper elevating himself into Graded company; especially one so fluent and genuine as Sire De Grugy.

But a Champion Chaser?

Maybe, but I wouldn't be rushing to take short-odds to find out. The race is a real puzzle, and I defaulted to Arvika Legionniere simply because he bas demonstrable talent under certain conditions, and is relatively unexposed at Cheltenham (albeit it's left-handed, and it may not suit).

Whatever happens, we'll be talking about the winner in the same terms as VPU and Newmill; not Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop, let alone The Aeroplane himself.
 
agreed pal. Finding it hard to make a call on the race. Arvika has cost me plenty in past years. But they do believe if he puts it together he wins easy. Beneficiant will go Ryan unless its decent ground.
 
The price about Arvika is poor enough given the amount of question marks the horse needs to answer. This really is a tricky/poor renewal to solve. Think Sizing Europe is a bit of value if the ground was good which is unlikely


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Digger said:
agreed pal. Finding it hard to make a call on the race. Arvika has cost me plenty in past years. But they do believe if he puts it together he wins easy. Beneficiant will go Ryan unless its decent ground.
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So was I and then the lights went on!!!

I've just had a sizeable each way bet on Somersby. He's rated 5lbs inferior to Sire de Grugy, but he knows his way around Cheltenham and his early season form stands up to scrutiny. That 5lb's is easily accounted for around Cheltenham, and the only other horse in the race that could run to the mid 160's around Cheltenham is Sizing Europe, but he's past his best and I'd take Somersby as being ahead of him these days.

In any previous renewal I couldn't have him, but in the context of the race 20's is huge and I can't have him out of the first three, and I can actually see him winning.

In fact I'm so sure there is a strong possibility he may end up being the biggest bet I have this Festival.

Puzzle solved. :cool:
 
If PN switches Hinterland here you may be encouraged by the race times at Sandown on Tingle Creek day. Hinterland recorded 3m 48.90 secs over the 2m course while Sire De Grugy clocked 3m 51.40 secs, carrying 5lb more.
 
Aragorn said:
People are also reading too much into SDG's Cheltenham form, the defeat to Kid Cassidy was a bad ride from Moore and a great one from McCoy.
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Those people include both owner and trainer, neither whom seemed to think the ride was the problem.

He didn´t quite get up the hill. There were no real excuses. Steve Preston, owner Chelt, 17 Nov
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Regarding the Champion Chase in March, he added: "I want to look at the French programme book because I'd rather go to France with him than Cheltenham. We'll probably get better money there as well." G Moore Sandown, 7th Dec.
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Granted the horse has improved, and he's won at Ascot and Sandown, but neither is Cheltenham, and connections have expressed the same trepidation about the course this season they did after his defeat there last.
 
Maruco said:
So was I and then the lights went on!!!

I've just had a sizeable each way bet on Somersby. He's rated 5lbs inferior to Sire de Grugy, but he knows his way around Cheltenham and his early season form stands up to scrutiny. That 5lb's is easily accounted for around Cheltenham, and the only other horse in the race that could run to the mid 160's around Cheltenham is Sizing Europe, but he's past his best and I'd take Somersby as being ahead of him these days.

In any previous renewal I couldn't have him, but in the context of the race 20's is huge and I can't have him out of the first three, and I can actually see him winning.

In fact I'm so sure there is a strong possibility he may end up being the biggest bet I have this Festival.

Puzzle solved. :cool:
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Does he definitely run here?
 
Given Sprinter Sacre doesn't, surely he must Hamm. Yes the Ryanair is an option but a stiff two would still be preferable surely.
 
SDG beaten by Kid Cassidy is enough to put me right off backing him in this. The Kid is a dug with fleas.
 
Surely one of the many trainers who are now seriously considering redirecting their horse to the QM will cop on that the Ryanair is there for the taking (ahem Tony Martin).
 
It's a poor QM that SDG could win easily. Nothing else in the field impresses as SE looks a shadow of his former self but this could easily be another Newmill year.

Would I be rushing to back SDG at 2/1? No because of his Cheltenham record but I'm on at a nice price and will leave it at that.

Many said the extra furlong at Ascot would find him out


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Tony Martin said in a preview tonight that Benefficient it is very unlikely to run in this. Alderwood also very unlikely according to the same preview
 
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Aragorn said:
Kid Cassidy was in receipt of 10lb that day....

If they go to France with SDG they've lost it.
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And still met SDG 9lb wrong at the weights.
Little doubt Gary Moore thinks SDG has improved enough to last home in the QM now, though I wouldn't bet on it.
 
I've read a few previews on the QM where Sizing Europe gets a big mention from the 'form' gurus .
It seems likely -looking at the forecast weather of sunny 10 c leading up to and during the 4 days that a Good/Sft. surface will arise. Perfect for SE.
I reckon that he will be backed on the day with an SP of 7/1.
 
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