Road To The 2014 QM Champion Chase

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I think trends are bollocks too most of the time

Has sdg needed to run over further than 2m? Has he fck

Can imagine Gary mores reaction suggestion that he should do so to ensure that at qmc trend is fulfiled
 
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clivex said:
Everyone is convinced that sdg can't win and yet can't see anything suggested to beat him

To my mind he's been improving all season and frankly if he gets 2m in heavy at ascot then he'll get 2m up the hill at Cheltenham. Left handed is probably not absolutely key. He's well ahead of rest and will win
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I wouldn't be convinced SDG cannot win. He surely has a great chance. But his previous track form at Cheltenham is slightly suspicious and he has faded badly on the hill before.

I suggest Captain Conan can and will beat him. He's done it before over C&D.
Unlike SDG, CC loves Cheltenham. People forget that CC won his first 2 starts over fences as a novice last season over the 2m distance. Beating SDG & Hinterland in those 2 races. The only reason he stepped up to 2m4f was because of Simonsig! Conan looked all over the winner coming to last in Jewson last year just to be outstayed.

You can point to most recent form of Sandown where SDG beat CC by 7L.
Right handed and a lot less testing than Cheltenham. Optimum track for SDG. And I've since read that Conan was not quite right that day.

Captain Conan is still a good bet at 7/1 and far better value than SDG at 6/4.
 
Double Handful said:
I wouldn't be convinced SDG cannot win. He surely has a great chance. But his previous track form at Cheltenham is slightly suspicious and he has faded badly on the hill before.

I suggest Captain Conan can and will beat him. He's done it before over C&D.
Unlike SDG, CC loves Cheltenham. People forget that CC won his first 2 starts over fences as a novice last season over the 2m distance. Beating SDG & Hinterland in those 2 races. The only reason he stepped up to 2m4f was because of Simonsig! Conan looked all over the winner coming to last in Jewson last year just to be outstayed.

You can point to most recent form of Sandown where SDG beat CC by 7L.
Right handed and a lot less testing than Cheltenham. Optimum track for SDG. And I've since read that Conan was not quite right that day.

Captain Conan is still a good bet at 7/1 and far better value than SDG at 6/4.
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I agree with a lot of that but I also think SDG has improved and valuable lessons should have been gleaned.
 
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clivex said:
I think trends are bollocks too most of the time

Has sdg needed to run over further than 2m? Has he fck

Can imagine Gary mores reaction suggestion that he should do so to ensure that at qmc trend is fulfiled
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Read the trend again
 
Yes is saw the bit about the c and d but really doesn't interest me. There is no captain chris type reason for him not performing at cheltenham and maxbet covered this pretty well.The fact that he's improved consistently all season does interest me.
 
clivex said:
Yes is saw the bit about the c and d but really doesn't interest me. There is no captain chris type reason for him not performing at cheltenham and maxbet covered this pretty well.The fact that he's improved consistently all season does interest me.
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I agree there is no 'Major' issue comparable to CapChris going right handed , but J Moore notably remarked in more than one interview in the past that SDG just does not like the the look of 2 or 3 of the fences at Chelt. Same ones each time. laucnhes himself at them a bit. And the vision on KC going past him like he was standing still on the Hill is just indelibly etched in my memory!

In terms of the improvement - no doubt about it. SDG has consistently improved this season. However Captain Conan is a year younger, still open to more improvement himself and is more lightly raced this season. I think he'll just be primed for the day and he loves the track. And he definitely has the stamina edge on SDG.

The more and more I look at it, the better it gets in terms of CC value over SDG at the current prices.

Still a bit of 9/1 about on the exchanges for Captain Conan. He'll go off around the 4/1 mark on the day, if not shorter after Nicky and Barry start talking him up closer to the day!
 
17Nov13 Cheltenham ( 16 Gd ,RPR170 )
He didn´t quite get up the hill. There were no real excuses. He was beaten fair and square on the day however, we did carry 10lb more so we´re still the best horse in the race.
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Timeform_zps90785073.jpg


Supplement stage on March 6th with the 6 day confirmations

I would
 
Please Jebus........let the bumpkin have a change of mind. It's clear to everyone but him that CC is a total no-hoper in the Gold Cup, and that the Ryanair is there for the taking (bollocks to running in the Champion Chase!).
 
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Cue card is much more likely to run to his rating in the Ryanair, than he is in the Champion Chase (imho).
 
CC won't run in the QM - they were very definite after Exeter

Agree his best chance is the Ryanair, but on good ground think he has a decent shout of staying in the Gold Cup. In the Bishops/Tizzard position I'd have a go. They don’t need the money, are very unlikely to have another chance in the main event and he's only 8, so it’s not as if this is last chance (hopefully)
 
Hmmmm... Captain Conan drifted to 12.5 on Betfiar this evening.

Still holding at 6/1 will almost all the bookies, 7/1 best price with a few.

But 12.5 on Betfair is quite a disparity...
 
Perpetual said:
CC won't run in the QM - they were very definite after Exeter

Agree his best chance is the Ryanair, but on good ground think he has a decent shout of staying in the Gold Cup. In the Bishops/Tizzard position I'd have a go. They don’t need the money, are very unlikely to have another chance in the main event and he's only 8, so it’s not as if this is last chance (hopefully)
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Yes. About right. It's not a field laden with quality either
 
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Perpetual said:
CC won't run in the QM - they were very definite after Exeter

Agree his best chance is the Ryanair, but on good ground think he has a decent shout of staying in the Gold Cup. In the Bishops/Tizzard position I'd have a go. They don’t need the money, are very unlikely to have another chance in the main event and he's only 8, so it’s not as if this is last chance (hopefully)
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Bar Bobs Worth its a shite Gold Cup. It's would be mental not to run Cue Card in it.
 
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