Road to the 2025 Champion Hurdle

granger said:
Come on

You have liked lossie when it suited you

It was pretty clear from the start she wasn't travelling and reported to be very flat today.

In a 4 horse race of two horses, she done well to be second based on that showing.
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No praise for a horse coming back from a year off, only praise for the horse he stuffed?
 
I'm always wary of small-field form and I want to dig a bit more into today's form in due course.

On the face of it, CH has given Lossie a 10lbs beating with more to come once fully tuned.

Townend claims she was never travelling but how often in the past would she have been asked to go that pace early in a race. They tend not to go that fast in Ireland in those Mullins-benefit races.

Could it be she was just found out today?

Burdett Road was up a fair bit for winning a decent renewal of the Greatwood but was still only off 142. CH has only given him a 10lbs beating.

Would anyone care to argue that he and Lossie are of similar levels as a 10lbs defeat for each would imply?

I was very doubtful beforehand that Lossie is a 160 horse; that her rating is too literal an interpretation of her recent win when in fact the race fell in her lap. Her previous rating of 156 might even flatter her.

But, to be brutally honest, today's form doesn't amount to a hill of beans.

But the pace did look honest/solid enough, enough to see Lump Sum (OR 144) drop out from the home turn and finish well beaten off.

It will be interesting to see how the handicapper rates the race and what kind of figure he comes up with for Burdett Road but the more I think about it the more convinced I am that I did the right thing in taking the profit on the Champion Hurdle bet.
 
I think the race was all about the well-being of Constitution Hill rather than the strength of the form. He looked pretty much in his pomp to me and seemed to travel from the get go fully in command of what he was doing. Jumping was super slick, excepting one slight error and he responded nicely when the accelerator was pressed.
 
barjon said:
I think the race was all about the well-being of Constitution Hill rather than the strength of the form. He looked pretty much in his pomp to me and seemed to travel from the get go fully in command of what he was doing. Jumping was super slick, excepting one slight error and he responded nicely when the accelerator was pressed.
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Yes, but I still want to quantify the achievement and I tend to be disappointed if the figures don't add up to much.
 
granger said:
Come on

You have liked lossie when it suited you

It was pretty clear from the start she wasn't travelling and reported to be very flat today.

In a 4 horse race of two horses, she done well to be second based on that showing.
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Never once have I said I liked Lossiemouth. From day one I have questioned her ability by firmly stating all she has beaten is trees. She has never faced anything of today standard and always been allowed to travel well within herself
. She is maybe better than what we saw today but what about Constitution Hill that certainly was not him at his very best but was Sprinter when he came back..I can see him improve 7lbs come March and none of the others finish that close to him again Ruby is far from being a great judge compared to what he was as a jockey...he has to say something and try and make it interesting it's his job
So much of what he says should be taken with a pinch of salt..The man you should listen to is Nico he knows better than anyone how he felt.
 
Much depends on when a jockey going easily decides to push the button. Nico never made his move until very late in the day on Constitution Hill.

He jumped the 2nd last just in front but still put 10 lengths between himself and BD and Lossiemouth strating to pick up still couldnt get near him..

If he was 110% fit and had moved sooner he would have won by 10 lengts imo.

People are quick to point out negatives which in reality are positives.
 
Theres a few negatives about Sir Gino that swung me towards Ballyburn.

The Fighting Fifth turned out to be more of a walkover than a race when Mystical Power never turned up.

He has never jumped a fence at racing speed which in this class is a worry no matter how good he is at home.

The Newbury gallop was turned on its head a couple of weeks later when Constititution Hill easily kicked him into touch in a gallop at Seven Barrows. Something Nico or Nicky never mentioned until now.

Ballyburn has held his postion as clear favourite for the Arkle despite Sir Gino being backed today for this.

No doubt this is a 2 horse race the other 2 are here for the beer and will be tailed off by the 2nd or 3rd last.

Ribaud has 13lbs to find and the other entry probably 13 stone would be nearer the mark.

A good mtch but Ballyburn holds the aces imo
 
Kudos and respect to all those whose faith in NH and CH never waivered. I thought he ran well after a year off and is perfectly capable of being in the first three in the Champion Hurdle next time out.
 
I'm pleasantly surprised that, amid the general euphoria, RPR has taken the conservative view that Constitution Hill was nowhere near his best yesterday. As DO has implied, rating a small field is difficult because you have to have a peg somewhere but the most logical reading for me is that Burdett Road improved by maybe 10lb and Lossiemouth ran about the same as the last time with a flat performance negating coming on for the first run.

RPR
162 Constitution Hill
152 Lossiemouth
156 Burdett Road

This has no bearing on how it will go in March other than to show that Henderson can keep him sound long enough for him to be competitive. He himself has said that he'd like another run before the Festival but he doesn't know if there's time to fit one in and still be ready for the big one which speaks of how difficult it has been to get him even this far.
 
BR also lost a fair bit of momentum when all but doing an impression of Douglas Bader at the last.

I wonder if connections might regret going for the race now. If the new OR is anywhere near that RPR it might well have had the winning of the Schweppes off 142, then the County off 147-ish.
 
archie said:
I'm pleasantly surprised that, amid the general euphoria, RPR has taken the conservative view that Constitution Hill was nowhere near his best yesterday. As DO has implied, rating a small field is difficult because you have to have a peg somewhere but the most logical reading for me is that Burdett Road improved by maybe 10lb and Lossiemouth ran about the same as the last time with a flat performance negating coming on for the first run.

RPR
162 Constitution Hill
152 Lossiemouth
156 Burdett Road

This has no bearing on how it will go in March other than to show that Henderson can keep him sound long enough for him to be competitive. He himself has said that he'd like another run before the Festival but he doesn't know if there's time to fit one in and still be ready for the big one which speaks of how difficult it has been to get him even this far.
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Frankly, I was perturbed to see Nico use his whip,though he did say CH took a good blow before the 2nd last.
If he's fit for the festival, then maybe his rating will rise to reflect his true ability.
 
Well done to anyone who lumped on Constitution Hill -some even money winners can leave you thinking you have the game by the balls and I mean that in a positive way.I had a few quid on Lossiemouth at 6/4 -at exactly the same time I realised she was being taken off her feet My wife popped her head in the time asking what I wanted for dinner .
 
Having now watched the race a few more times, and trying to remove all bias and pre-conceptions the real conclusion I have come to is that State Man was the real winner looking forward to March.
 
That’s a good analysis in respect of Lossiemouth being taken off her feet by the pace as supported by the times. It was, of course, Burdett Road who was setting that pace so to go on and raise a question over Constitution Hill because he “only” beat Burdett Road by nine lengths seems a bit of a contradiction. Maybe, the conclusion is that Burdett Road is better than his mark might suggest.
 
That piece of form doesn't even start to describe how superior Constitution Hill is to BR.
If BR ran in a Champion Hurdle do you think for 1 second he would get within 9 lengths of him,?
 
The KB item backs up what I said earlier about Lossiemouth not being asked to go that kind of pace before but it's always great to see the numbers.

But consider what wasn't said.

Lossiemouth couldn't go a pace that 140-[ballpark]rated horses could and that pace couldn't get a half-fit Constitution Hill out of second gear.

One of those 140-rated had run himself to a standstill by two out.

The other deserves credit for keeping going so well.

Lossie has effectively plodded past a horse that was slowing down having, technically, got a more effective ride despite being taken off her feet.

Constitution Hill had them all stone cold the whole way.

As I said, the form doesn't really amount to much other than proving CH is much superior. I've always said CH is a 180+ waiting to show it but they might never truly ask him to.
 
Looking forward to State man Sunday now
Desert Orchid said:
The KB item backs up what I said earlier about Lossiemouth not being asked to go that kind of pace before but it's always great to see the numbers.

But consider what wasn't said.

Lossiemouth couldn't go a pace that 140-[ballpark]rated horses could and that pace couldn't get a half-fit Constitution Hill out of second gear.

One of those 140-rated had run himself to a standstill by two out.

The other deserves credit for keeping going so well.

Lossie has effectively plodded past a horse that was slowing down having, technically, got a more effective ride despite being taken off her feet.

Constitution Hill had them all stone cold the whole way.

As I said, the form doesn't really amount to much other than proving CH is much superior. I've always said CH is a 180+ waiting to show it but they might never truly ask him to.
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I find it hard to believe CH with who his trainer is and what same trainer said post race that CH was far from half fit
 
Poetic licence on my part but NdB did say after the race that CH would definitely come on an awful lot for the race.

While KB says how fast they went compared to Lossie's other races, the sectional analysis suggests the pace wasn't over-fast; rather, it was even and then quickened up a good bit in the final third.

The worry with that is that it implies Lossie couldn't go what was maybe not that fast a pace after all. That might just be down to the nature of Kempton and how it favours speed horses but it suggests Lossie is not a speed horse and you need speed to win a Champion Hurdle.

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