Road to the Arc de Triomphe

Agree with Euronymous. When i ask myself if Treve is a three time arc winner in waiting....I personally don''t buy it. I am happy to be proved wrong and if she wins then great..

But New Bay is value at the current price...

As for the ground, still could very easily go soft yet. European weather patterns are not to be banked on a week before the race imo. Quite frankly the current weather forecast from Longchamp means **** all and is not worth the cyber space that it takes up on the RP site!

New Bay is a 11/4 chance (in my own mind at least).
 
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marble said:
Agree with Euronymous. When i ask myself if Treve is a three time arc winner in waiting....I personally don''t buy it. I am happy to be proved wrong and if she wins then great..
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That's right, I know it has little logic but just that feeling maybe because her win was so unexpected last season she won't win this time just because almost everyone thinks it's a formality.
 
Its not just that either. I believe most things abide by a law of averages...and put simply...you have to be exceptional to win three Arcs...on a par to something like Frankel but over a different distance.
I know she's won two Arcs, and I know she is a warm order...but law of averages says she is up against two improving and proven horses in New Bay and Golden Horn and law of averages suggest one of them (if not both) will run her close on her third attempt at Arc glory.

That is why Golden Horn is shortening and that is why New Bay is value at 4's and will probably go off a lot shorter. If she wins by ten lengths i will eat a lot of humble pie!
For what its worth I'll be having whatever my betting bank is by Saturday evening on New Bay (probably not much like :))
 
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Yeah, she had the perfect prep for her first win and received all the generous allowances. Last season there were no proper top class 3yos in the field to beat her.

I was listening to the podcast RP put out before the weekend and Segal actually said he thought she was better than Frankel. Incredible
 
It was a bold statement from Segal but I think he actually said she's as good as him not better.. I think he meant it in terms of achievements not ability as she would need an exceptional performance on Sunday to put her in same ability realm as Frankel.
 
She's an exceptional horse but get a fu**ing grip is what I thought when I read that.

Clearly she's the best in the field on Sunday. Lets hope she does the business.
 
Frankel said:
Clearly she's the best in the field on Sunday. Lets hope she does the business.
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On OR she is not, is she?
New Bay is rated 11 pounds lower than Golden Horn. I think we all respect Fabre but I am not sure a horse like NB can beat Treve and GH.
 
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Treve has the Head family on her side.
They are Arc royalty as far as the history of the race is concerned, having most of their Arc success with fillies to boot.
remember she had an interrupted preparation last year jarring her back at Royal Ascot .
they and they alone replaced Frankie with Jarnet in the filly's best interest for reasons only they understood.
She has the perfect preparation this year it seems.
While I would have preferred a more low key Vermeille win to allow her peak next Sunday the Heads know what they are doing, especially with fillies.
She wins.
 
I think the weather forecast is the key
if the ground is good or gf, Golden Horn will win the Arc he only needs to reproduce the Epsom performance.
I rate him 10pounds better than New Bay and conditions will suit more Gosdens horse.
The fact they are still talking of running in the BC suggests the horse should be at the pick of his powers.
Treve needs softer and I dont expect her to improve the Vermeille level where she beat absolutley nothing

Free Eagle with this ground is an interesting outsider and will be a very big price in the PMU on the the day
 
LBM said:
On OR she is not, is she?
New Bay is rated 11 pounds lower than Golden Horn. I think we all respect Fabre but I am not sure a horse like NB can beat Treve and GH.
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If you use your eyes then she is.

As for New Bay, absolutely no way does he have 11 pounds to make up on Golden Horn, whatever the ratings say.
Throw in preparation and ground, New Bay is a serious threat imo.
 
Frankel said:
If you use your eyes then she is.

As for New Bay, absolutely no way does he have 11 pounds to make up on Golden Horn, whatever the ratings say.
Throw in preparation and ground, New Bay is a serious threat imo.
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Agree here with Frankel. Each to their own though....I talked to a relative tonight who has studied the race and thinks Golden Horn can win. A game of many contrasting opinions.
 
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Golden Horn completely overrated. Said this on the Juddmonte thread and nothing has changed in my eyes. His form is not good enough to get anywhere near Treve. New Bay is the worry but I can't help but think we may be about to see a performance for the ages on Sunday from the filly.
 
Golden Horn might struggle, on this track and likely fast ground. Certainly outpaced at one stage in the Derby, nothing he's done since suggests an electric gear change, and against better horses over a lesser test (imo) than Epsom, may well be found wanting.
 
Euronymous said:
Surely Weld waits for the Champion Stakes with Free Eagle. No chance in this, Ascot there for the taking.
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Free Eagle was in the process of going past GH like a train in Ireland before he got interfered with by the winner. Free Eagle is hugely over-priced for this and could well be the fly in the ointment.
 
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