Road to the Arc de Triomphe

I must admit I have sympathy for Found, too - just these niggling doubts are putting me off.
 
Arc draw: Treve's pacemaker Shahah in 2, New Bay 5, Treve 8, Flintshire 11, Free Eagle 12, Golden Horn 14 and Found 15.
 
Frankel said:
Not a great draw but Found at 25s.
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Unless it turns into a road I cannot see anything getting close to Treve . It was good ground last year and this year she has been imperious throughout .she appears to be a bigger ,stronger better horse who has had a perfect preparation unlike last year's disaster.
 
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Ardross said:
Unless it turns into a road I cannot see anything getting close to Treve . It was good ground last year and this year she has been imperious throughout .she appears to be a bigger ,stronger better horse who has had a perfect preparation unlike last year's disaster.
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Yep
 
reet hard said:
Ground was g/f last year; a view supported by the clock and the RP.
Looks likely to be much the same this.
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According to the race times compared to the RP standards it was Good ground, not G/F...using their own method of calculation

From what i understand the RP standard time equates a 100 RPR horse carrying 9.0 on middle good ground.

The Arc time was 4.45 seconds faster than their standard. Treve carried 9-2... is a 130 RPR horse..so on perfect good ground she would need to beat the RP standard by 28lbs..which is approx 4.00 seconds at 12f. So she has run just 0.45 seconds faster ..thats just 3lb...faster than middle good ground...the start of Good to Firm ground would be 15lb+ faster than middle Good. So, just using the Arc time shows that according to the RP standards the ground was perfect Good going....top side..but still not fast ground.

Olympic Glory's race was the other fast time on the card. And its probably fair to say that during the afternoon conditions did dry out a little. OG ran over an hour later than the Arc

OG is a 127 RPR horse carrying 9-2..so would need to beat RP standard by 25 lbs if the going was Good. OG beat RP standard by 2.27 seconds..at 7f thats something like 16lbs = 1 second.....so OG beat standard time by 36 lbs. That makes the going just 11lb faster than Good...nearly at the GF crossover point..but still Good ground.

It was clearly drying ground..but most of the card was run on ground..according to RP standards ..that was perfect Good ground.
 
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Paris-Turf this morning has given their whole front page to Treve. They are hoping she wins tomorrow in order to restore the popularity of French racing, rescue its finances, bring seven years of plenty to the nation and peace unto the world.

They also mention that no other horse has ever even attempted to win the Arc for a third time and if she succeeds Thierry Jarnet will become "le recordman de l'Arc" with five wins in the race.
 
The one I like at a price is Erupt. Ignore his last run. He's a heavy horse, needed the run, and didn't handle the ground at all last time. Take that out and he's done all his winning very nicely. 33's ew freely available.
 
the prix dollar would be run on good ground in 120.5/121.0 seconds...today 119.58..suggesting that with a drying factor for tomorrow the ground will be fastish for the arc

will they water?
 
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They say they are not watering today
so tomorrow the récord will be broken, proper gf ground tomorrow.

my 3 are
golden horn
free eagle
flintshire
 
no watering is great..come on golden horn...the form he has shown at 10f is only a fraction of what he is capable of at 12f..something most punters have forgotten
 
I'll go with:

Golden Horn WIN 4/1 - good ground in his favour, plenty of stamina so 12f should see him improve from the last runs and is couple of pounds clear on this year form from anything in the race.

Silverwave E/W 66/1 - underrated in market based on his last race in prix niel against new bay, winner at the track, is drawn near stable mate Spiritjim and hopefully they go forward which will favour him as he needs to be near the pace. Has had a lightly french campaign with this race in mind and I can see him improve 5-10 pounds which should put him in the placings.
 
EC1 said:
no watering is great..come on golden horn...the form he has shown at 10f is only a fraction of what he is capable of at 12f..something most punters have forgotten
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Completely agree, not often I bet on the ferret racing but have had a decent bet @6-1.
 
Euronymous said:
Golden Horn has been too busy this season and has a bad draw.
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busy?..really?...1 race per month..STS had similar...that draw won't bother him ..particularly on faster ground...draw worse on slow ground...as he will drop in..if he needed prominency i'd agree..he doesn't though...his price is based on recency..ie 10f races that don't represent his true worth..look where he was at 10f in the Derby..then where he was at the finish..the price is a complete rick

tomorrow you will see his true worth at a trip and on ground he will relish

people laying at the current price will be stung imo

he is a better horse than workforce based on his Derby win..workforce a horse that beat F&G further than STS did...should be 2/1 ish in reality

treve was beaten at Ascot by the fugue..reason for defeat was given as fast ground..which she faces tomorrow for the first time since..she won't place imo
 
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STS had a class advantage that GH doesn't enjoy.

And he was prepared for the King George, pretty much counts as a race imo.

I don't think Treve will win either but the ground isn't the reason I'm against her. Ascot fast ground is different than on any other track and some horses (Integral a good example) just don't act on it but do at other courses.
 
K
Aughex said:
I'll go with:

Golden Horn WIN 4/1 - good ground in his favour, plenty of stamina so 12f should see him improve from the last runs and is couple of pounds clear on this year form from anything in the race.

Silverwave E/W 66/1 - underrated in market based on his last race in prix niel against new bay, winner at the track, is drawn near stable mate Spiritjim and hopefully they go forward which will favour him as he needs to be near the pace. Has had a lightly french campaign with this race in mind and I can see him improve 5-10 pounds which should put him in the placings.
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GH is best priced 6/1, don't be a mug and back it at 4's!!

This is a difficult one, all of the front 4 have a shout and although I think Treve is the most likely winner, with the ground as it is and given prices I'm probably going to side with GH. Free Eagle is a cracking e/w price as well but I'll be holding my bets until tomorrow.

Best race of the season by a mile. Finally something to get excited about.
 
Euronymous said:
STS had a class advantage that GH doesn't enjoy.

And he was prepared for the King George, pretty much counts as a race imo.

I don't think Treve will win either but the ground isn't the reason I'm against her. Ascot fast ground is different than on any other track and some horses (Integral a good example) just don't act on it but do at other courses.
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a surface is a surface to me Euro tbh..fact is treve has only met fast ground once in her career..and it was given as reason for defeat..also in a 12 race career for a horse to only meet fast ground once tells me its not ideal..an average horse will meet fast ground 39% of the times it runs due to vagaries of the weather..obviously where she races it isn't as prevalent but that one run on it doesn't encourage me to think it suits

GH is a class animal...if he had been kept at 12f he wouldn't be the price he is under tomorrows conditions..recency has skewed his price as most punters think he is only as good as his 10f form suggests..he only just starts moving at 10f

its a cracking renewal..looking forward to it
 
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Treve had physical issues last year, yet still ran a cracker at Ascot. Would GH have won that race, debatable.
Golden Horn wouldn't have beaten Workforce in his Derby.

The ground tomorrow if quick certainly helps GH chances, as will 12f. He still though will have to run a career best and hope Treve is not on her game.
 
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