Road to the Arc de Triomphe

Simmo, do you really believe that?! Personally I thought GH was messing with him, IMHO Free Eagle would never have gotten up... But it's a game of opinions..
 
Aragorn said:
Simmo, do you really believe that?! Personally I thought GH was messing with him, IMHO Free Eagle would never have gotten up... But it's a game of opinions..
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Absolutely, I posted a link to the race at the time, saying much the same thing. After the interference Free Eagle doesn't ever look like getting up or even closer - the jockey gives FE a crack of the whip, GH is starting to tire, which may make it look more dramatic than it was, and then GH swerves right across and from then on FE can never get his momentum back.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1pSuM8SSR0

Edit: On a further viewing, I'd say it's possible Free Eagle is a "one spurt" horse - but he's definitely going past before GH comes across.
 
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Correct simmo regards momentum.
Many seem to have overlooked that. They see the finishing distance and conclude the result from that.
Make no mistake it would have been very close without the interference. To say GH still clearly would have won is utter nonsense imo.
 
simmo said:
Free Eagle was in the process of going past GH like a train in Ireland before he got interfered with by the winner. Free Eagle is hugely over-priced for this and could well be the fly in the ointment.
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I thought he went a bit too soon and had used up all his acceleration just to get to Golden Horn and wouldn't have gone past bump or no bump.

The race did however prove has has the ability to win or run a big race if he gets the trip and acts on the ground.

However, the fact he has never ran at the trip and it could come up soft I don't think 16/1 is outstanding at all.
 
the Arc is one of those races D k Weld would love to have a proper crack at.
He mentions it with every decent middle distance horse he has had yet only Blue Wind and Vinnie Roe ( maybe one or two others) have run in it.
He has mentioned this race for Free Eagle since before Ascot.
On forecast going he has to be thereabouts.
 
Of course beating Golden Horn isn't what the race is all about.

Treve looks in a different league to him and it will take something to improve dramatically to beat her.

That's assuming she runs up to her best but surely the only horse who fits the bill is Jack Hobbs.

John Gosden seems to think it's possible having given him an easy time of things and every opportunity to improve since the Irish Derby
 
Tanlic said:
Of course beating Golden Horn isn't what the race is all about.

Treve looks in a different league to him and it will take something to improve dramatically to beat her.
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She beat Kingston Hill four lengths last year. She's way too short and is vulnerable to a high class 3yo
 
Tanlic said:
Of course beating Golden Horn isn't what the race is all about.

Treve looks in a different league to him and it will take something to improve dramatically to beat her.

That's assuming she runs up to her best but surely the only horse who fits the bill is Jack Hobbs.

John Gosden seems to think it's possible having given him an easy time of things and every opportunity to improve since the Irish Derby
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Golden Horn has gubbed Jack Hobbs both times they have met.
 
Euronymous said:
She beat Kingston Hill four lengths last year. She's way too short and is vulnerable to a high class 3yo
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exactly, last year 3yo's were weak and she also got the perfect ride on the inside. She hasn't produced a rating yet that could make you believe she's capable of holding off the fresh talent even with a great ride.
 
Aughex said:
exactly, last year 3yo's were weak and she also got the perfect ride on the inside. She hasn't produced a rating yet that could make you believe she's capable of holding off the fresh talent even with a great ride.
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And what rating has GH produced that isn't based on a line through an overrated TGG! New Bay will be a danger but again what has he beat?
She annihilated a good arc field two years ago that performance alone is miles ahead of anything else in the race.
 
We are looking at going that will produce no real excuse for any contender.
We have the top three year old colts all showing up.
We have some of the best older horses around.
We have Treve.
What more do we need ?
 
edgt said:
We are looking at going that will produce no real excuse for any contender.
We have the top three year old colts all showing up.
We have some of the best older horses around.
We have Treve.
What more do we need ?
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A drop of rain for a romp. :whistle:
 
Euronymous said:
She beat Kingston Hill four lengths last year. She's way too short and is vulnerable to a high class 3yo
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I agree........Lay me 3/1?:lol:



She also had the King George winner in 3rd so the form was more than decent considering she absolutely trounced them in style if not distance.

Golden Horn just scrapped home from 2 horses who look below top class so unless you are on the same page as me and think Jack Hobbs is a possible improver then I don't know where you are going to find this mystery 3 year old
 
SP Only said:
And what rating has GH produced that isn't based on a line through an overrated TGG! New Bay will be a danger but again what has he beat?
She annihilated a good arc field two years ago that performance alone is miles ahead of anything else in the race.
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New Bay should be in the double digits for what he has beat but he's the typical Fabre hyped horse who could improve to win this. I don't think TGG is overrated by anyone, he's just having a bad jockey in recent times. Put Moore back on board and you'll see him showing the level of form he did when beating Australia and 2nd in Dubai Turf. Spencer did gave him a fair chance in the Eclipse but GH was simply too good.

GH is even better over 12f and I think he would beat a listed winner more than 10 lengths. Treve received a hefty allowance in her first Arc against Orfevre and only managed to give Penglai Pavilion, a listed flat horse at best, only a 9 length beating. She may win the 3rd but her form is there for aiming with a bunch of talented improvers coming along and her price is not reflective of that, she doesn't have 50% winning chances whichever way I look at it.
 
In the last 25 years there were 17 Arc winners trained in France, 1 in Germany, 3 in Ireland (of which only one was trained by APOB, the other 2 by J.Oxx) and 4 in the UK (one by Sir M.Stoute, the other 3 for S.bin Suroor for Godolphin).

Honestly, the likes of Golden Horn and Found are good if not very good horses in their own right, I couldn't care less though about any UK or Irish trained horse for the Arc. The French have the problem that they mainly back their own horses so much that the local odds on the day have the French horses vastly underpriced and the foreign raiders overpriced. The UK followers have the problem that they overrate the chances of their horses every single year. If I have the choice between the two problems I'd rather go for underpriced winners trained in France than for overpriced and overrated chances for the UK and the APOB horses. Sunday will tell if this scheme is gonna be any different this year, I doubt it very much though. For me it's only between Treve and New Bay and the most dangerous foreign raider could well be Free Eagle.
 
Euronymous said:
She beat Kingston Hill four lengths last year. She's way too short and is vulnerable to a high class 3yo
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She beat (easily) a 120 rated KH 4l, with a host of other gp1 winners in her wake. She's drifting in the market too, on account of the ground, yet her 2014 romp was on as fast a surface as she's likely to meet Sunday.
 
I'm not really against Treve as she was very impressive in the build up and as a twice winner of the Arc she's entitled to be favourite. On the other hand I wouldn't be falling over myself to back her either even if she went out as far as 9/4. I think Golden Horn and New Bay are also solid contenders and would have no arguments with either being good enough to take this down. Out of the 3 at the prices I probably think Golden Horn is the best bet but still don't even think he is the best bet to be had in the race. The proverbial bridesmaid Flintshire is knocking about at around 20/1 possibly 25's on the day over here doubt he'd be half that on the Pari mutuel. His Group1 record over 12F of good ground or faster reads a little like this

1,2,2,2,1,2,3,2,1

Its not exactly the worst record I've seen in my life. Even the third place may be excused as the race was the Coronation Cup at Epsom this year and was run at such a farcical pace that Pethers Moon won a Grp1 which no offence to connections should tell us all we need to know about the reliability of the form. It may be also possible to forgive last years Breeders Cup turf second as I'm fairly sure Main Sequence had a touch on the Ben Johnsons about him. After Treve's latest soft ground romp it seems she has suddenly solidified in some peoples minds that she's some sort of unbeatable machine . On better ground in last years Arc I agree with an earlier comment that she couldn't have asked for a better passage she got first run on Flintshire and put 2L on him but he was staying on at the finish.I'm not for a moment suggesting the best horse didn't win, she did but it could have certainly been closer than 2 lengths. At Saint Cloud this season once again the pair clashed on good ground this time Treve coming out on top by 1.25 lengths the pace maker for Treve in the race was largely ignored and Flintshire found himself making his own running which again is hardly ideal but Treve certainly appeared to have a little more up her sleeve perhaps at the line.

So what I'm trying to say overall is supplement the mighty Pethers Moon and we have an Arc winner !

O.k I'm kidding but a conservative estimate of 9/2 for Flintshire to place only would be much more preferable as a bet to me than backing any of the market leaders to win outright.

However,I would wait for the draw as I'm still in the camp that the greatest 1m4f race on the planet shouldn't be run at a poor mans Chester. I actually read an interesting piece on the effect of the ground on the draw at Longchamp by Simon Rowlands of time form this week and it sort of echoed a piece I'd read by Mordin once if anyone's interested its worth a squaz.

As you like.
 
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I think a decent pace and ground to the liking of Flintshire is more or less guaranteed - for me he's definitely a top4 or top5 horse unless no luck in running.

Top4 or top5 could still mean unplaced though. I do not see him as the winner, a second or 3rd place would be no surprise though. I'd go with Treve and New Bay and cover myself against losses with a tinier stake on Free Eagle and Flintshire, that should do. Golden Horn will get a minor placing at most, Found a non-stayer and the rest not good enough. Should the ground make Treve feel uneasy - which I doubt as her hoof problems are over - than New Bay could shoe in, followed home by Free Eagle and Flintshire.
 
Pretty much agree with all of that Danoli. Found possibly being the exception, though accept the stamina doubts. Am a little more hopeful she'll last home.
 
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