Road to the Champion Chase 2011

davidjohnson said:
Yes. My initial reaction is that todays performance is somewhere in the ballpark of high 160's/low 170's.
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Well low 170s if you are using MM as your guide. Presumably you would see himn as pretty much unbeatable in the Ryanair then assuming no impact from change in race distances.
 
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EC1 said:
he wouldn't have beat Petit Robin 20 though if he had stood up..was travelling best in the race
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If ifs and buts were fruit and nuts it'd be Christmas every day, as a colleague of mine likes to say. Suppose Petit Robin had made a bad mistake but stood up? We never forgive bad blunders, but we do falls, for some reason.
 
Poungach just confirmed there is very little wrong with PN's horse's..scooted in

is that a good sign for Ramses De Marcigny in the last i wonder
 
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Well my opinion is the Ryanair might look the safest option now for Somersby but it could turn out to be a more volatile market, and it could turn out to be more of a challenge than we think right now.

The trainer must know the horse best she will surely get it right wherever he goes. At least with CC she's knows what she's got to fear. Big Zeb, Master Minded, Woolcomber Folly, Captain Cee Bee and possibly Sizing Europe.

WF and Captain Cee Bee well behind in the Arkle and Sizing Europe has hardly had great prepartion for the race. That leaves MM and Big Zeb, would you not be tempted to have a crack! Somersby looks to have had an ideal preparation and will be spot on in terms of peakness in March. Who knows.
 
Kauto said:
Knight said: "It was heartstopping. I was really pleased with him as he is not the easiest horse. Wewere so sure that we wanted the Ryanair but after today's performance he showed that he is still able to hold his own at two miles so we might go for the Ryanair next year now."

NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO if he cant beat MM he stands no chance at Cheltenham he couldn't even win the Arkle why oh why oh why will you not learn.
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She hasn't got a f@&££)g clue!! He has no chance in CC - favourites chance in the Ryanair!!:mad:
 
My worry about Somersby is that he might be a horse that tends to get out paced and then stay on at any trip. Again there is nothing more to it than a hunch.
 
Seems like a bit of a 'thinker' at times.

What is jumps racing going to end up as, if smaller trainers like Knight duck horses from trainers like Nicholls in the top grade 1's because other lesser prestigious races like the Ryaniar are a bit more easier to win?

And people moan about 3 year olds getting retired in flat racing..?!! The best horses should run in the best races.
 
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rorydelargy said:
Not saying I fancy Somersby, but he's just beaten the field by 20 lengths over 2m to prove that he doesn't need further yet. A change of tactics (and tack) crucial and Hen doesn't deserve the brickbats she's getting on this occasion.
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Difficult though it is to argue with that, I have to say I remain unconvinced.

My reading of today's race was that Somersby actually ran a relatively similar race to last year's Arkle in that he was outpaced when the pace lifted before staying on strongly. The difference of course being that Master Minded lifted the tempo what must have been fully 6 or 7 furlongs from home today, whilst they didn't really strike for home until after three out in the Arkle if memory serves (as well as the fact that Frost had Somersby astutely placed with the leaders all the way round today).

A line through Mad Max would suggest that Somersby has improved immensely since the Arkle and, whilst that may be the case (he's almost certainly improved considerably at least), Mad Max looked to pay the price for trying to match strides with Master Minded up the hill. All in all, the Knight horse looks a Ryanair sort to me.

On another note, I cannot have it that Master Minded's jumping was below par today. Apart from his usual fluent self, his jumping at the three down the side after Swindley bottom was little short of breathtaking .
 
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EC1 said:
i will :)

think i will just back one horse in the next 3 months - Woolcombe Folly :D

he is the one you know :p
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You could be right! I hope you are wrong though! I don't think we saw the real MM today - some way below his best - whether that is some sort of minor virus that is hitting some of Nichols horses or not, I don't know? I am firmly in the Zeb camp now and believe he will be prepared for a peak performance on March - Woolcome's sectionals the last day were very very good - he repesents a big danger - where does he go next or is straight to the CC?
 
martin said:
Seems like a bit of a 'thinker' at times.

What is jumps racing going to end up as, if smaller trainers like Knight duck horses from trainers like Nicholls in the top grade 1's because other lesser prestigious races like the Ryaniar are a bit more easier to win?

And people moan about 3 year olds getting retired in flat racing..?!! The best horses should run in the best races.

Don't think the Ryaniar will be any easier to win than the CC looks like it is going to be a cracking renewal but Somersby clearly needs further than 2 miles in his races he has been finishing them all off with a flourish, the arkle, the tingle creek and today although he may have been made to look a finisher as MM was tiring although the time was very good for conditions so points to stamina kicking in. If he was on the flat and running he would have been stepped up by now. Imo it makes no sense to put back plans to step up in trip after today he's run a cracker but it again screams of the horse needs further.
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Don't think anyone has questioned whether he is a good horse at 2m but he isn't a champion chaser imo on what he has achieved over the distance so far and he could improve more for the step up in trip he could be a Gold Cup horse next year but they wont find out by keep running him in 2m races.
 
EC1 said:
...Woolcombe Folly...
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I really like that horse.

Somersby must be one tough cookie. He actually hit the deck on the horsewalk at Cheltenham last time, then ran on like a train at the end that race and again today.
 
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redhead said:
I really like that horse.

Somersby must be one tough cookie. He actually hit the deck on the horsewalk at Cheltenham last time, then ran on like a train at the end that race and again today.
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I missed seeing that, but he was a naughty boy there, and did the same thing at Aintree last season.
 
martin said:
As a layperson I find talk from people 'who know' things about Knight disrespecful, it's not needed on an open forum. This is not a court of law we do not need character references. I've seen the same thing with Twiston Davies on here; without the 'funny' people in life we'd just be left with the straight, narrow and perfect, bores and bureacrats no?
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I'm a tad lost when it comes to this comment - I've looked over the last four or so pages of the thread and can't see any disrespectful comments about Hen nor talk about 'knowing' things about her nor character references.....
 
Thinking more about it, I think Somersby is probably a really good horse, maybe a 170 horse.
 
Captain Cee Bee is very positive in the market again. I can only think that the horse must show them an awful lot at home because on his last run he is completely out of it.
 
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