Road to the Champion Chase 2011
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
Yes because Somersby looked a speed demon today?
Get over your love of Henry - none of those ran their race. Funny how when it's not a horse everyone has backed (SE) no-one can accept horses haven't run their race. When it's long run and few here backed him, it's simple - the others didn't run their race. Or maybe it's the usual Irish bias nonsense on here.
I was responding to Hamm who asked what had BZ done to match MM's performance today, not the last day. You can argue what you like about Sommersby and Golden Silver's but how you can argue that eithers form is not near the others??
With due respect I have called Long Run right on his last three runs. I don't see the bias there.
You called Sizing Europe's Arkle the worst Arkle in years - now all the other horses under performed after some fine efforts this season.
Indeed you are the one that continually brings Sizing Europe into virtually every chasing discussion or Dunguib in hurdle discussions.
You called Sizing Europe's Arkle the worst Arkle in years - now all the other horses under performed after some fine efforts this season.
Indeed you are the one that continually brings Sizing Europe into virtually every chasing discussion or Dunguib in hurdle discussions.
I can only believe that some are posting here without having seen the race or need a bloody quick visit to specsavers (to get rid of the green tint maybe)
Isnt it obvious to anyone that MM did not travel and jump as well as he can?
Isnt it very likely that somersby certainly travelled better than any time since Sandown (the right handed thing may be significant) ?
It doesnt mean that MM will definately win in March but does anyone really think thats hes certainly going to perform precisely that way?
Isnt it obvious to anyone that MM did not travel and jump as well as he can?
Isnt it very likely that somersby certainly travelled better than any time since Sandown (the right handed thing may be significant) ?
It doesnt mean that MM will definately win in March but does anyone really think thats hes certainly going to perform precisely that way?
You know that is rubbish
Beef Or Salmon - 4/7 to win a Lexus, 66/1 to win a Gold Cup
One Man - 4/7 to win a King George, 66/1 to win a Gold Cup
Golden Silver won a handicap by 10 lengths off top weight last season rated 157. Sommersby was beaten 3 lengths off 156 in a handicap, admittedly on his first run back.
That is because 1. He appeared in the betting for the queen mum 2. He receives a massive bias on here so there needs to be some perspective
I'll say this for the last time - what is so difficult to believe the horses I named didn't run their race in the Arkle?? The ratings show this but some people prefer to think SE an amazing horse who was all set to win the King George
Knight said: "It was heartstopping. I was really pleased with him as he is not the easiest horse. Wewere so sure that we wanted the Ryanair but after today's performance he showed that he is still able to hold his own at two miles so we might go for the Ryanair next year now."
NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO if he cant beat MM he stands no chance at Cheltenham he couldn't even win the Arkle why oh why oh why will you not learn.
NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO if he cant beat MM he stands no chance at Cheltenham he couldn't even win the Arkle why oh why oh why will you not learn.
You are dead right, it doesn't suggest how he will show up. What I like doing is comparing horses at the same point in previous seasons e.g. Binocular beating Starluck by more than last year. In the same way, MM has two ways of running and while he's been brilliant in the Victor Chandler before, he wasn't brilliant today. Was it just an off day or is there something else. If you believe the former, then 2s is a great price. If you believe the other side, then Zeb or Folly are looking good bets now. The one thing Zeb does have is consistency.....it was consistently falling before and is now consistently winning. If Zeb had gone for the Dial A Bet last year and not to Sandown, and if he had not rooted the last fence at Punchestown when beaten a head by Master Minded, he'd have some record over the last two years.....unbeaten.
Although I disagree with most of your views on Zeb, your argument is well made but comparing different handicaps, and one being a first run, is pointless.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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I don't think it is. I thought he was typically economical and looked to have the race safely in the bag early in the straight. I think some of the reaction here is OTT. He didn't get beat and has probably run to a mark in the low 170's, which is probably his best effort of the year.
Big Zeb too is probably capable of a low 170's effort and it's no surprise that the 2 are close together at the head of the betting. I'd just favour the Irish horse personally.
Who on here said SE would win the King George? I suggested he was decent e/w value in the King George at the time after a good run up north after jumping poorly. In his absence I put Long Run up as the most likely to take advantage of any chinks in Kauto.
What a remarkably fortunate horse Sizing Europe is to have all his rivals run below form in the Arkle for no apparent reason.
Re the Arkle - look at a formbook, look at that race and how those 3 ran, then look at their marks subsequent to that. Then, compare SE since, and it's really a very simple conclusion to come to if you and others particularly can leave bias aside.
So how can you say that BZ's form is so far below MM's run today?? Presumably you think Sommersby is better handicapped that Golden Silver, but you say yourself that taking a view on handicap marks is pointless. So how exactly do you make out one horses form is better than another without handicapping them yourself??
If people watch that again you will see McCoy began to niggle at him after he made that massive leap at the 4th I think it is was clearly seen as well cos although nothing major his price spiked on betfair as well to about evens maybe higher it just wasn't the same horse as his first 2 runs this year stating the obvious.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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I'm not so sure, clivex.
I thought MM jumped great as usual and simply tired in the ground. The yard aren't exactly firing at present, and he was perhaps not quite at full concert-pitch. I'd expect an improved performance in the Champion Chase
I wouldn't rate the race quite as high as DJ - mid-160's being more my idea of the mark he has run to. He's still the one to beat at Cheltenham, imo.
I thought MM jumped great as usual and simply tired in the ground. The yard aren't exactly firing at present, and he was perhaps not quite at full concert-pitch. I'd expect an improved performance in the Champion Chase
I wouldn't rate the race quite as high as DJ - mid-160's being more my idea of the mark he has run to. He's still the one to beat at Cheltenham, imo.
Would you not expect most novices to go on and achieve a higher rating in their second season? That does not mean they "under performed" in their novice days.
Did Kicking King "under perform" in his Arkle second just because he bettered that run the following season? Of course not, it is just the natural development of a horse graduating from novice the senior ranks. Sizing Europe has not matched that as, in my opinion, he has not got his conditions yet.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Thank you - thought I was going mad listening to some reaction (not here I might add - will read now).
rorydelargy
At the Start
Not saying I fancy Somersby, but he's just beaten the field by 20 lengths over 2m to prove that he doesn't need further yet. A change of tactics (and tack) crucial and Hen doesn't deserve the brickbats she's getting on this occasion.
I don't think there was any OTT comments on here. His performance was simply not as stunning as he has produced before. So if you beleive he ran to low 170s today, that means Sommersby should be rated the same?
davidjohnson
At the Start
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Yes. My initial reaction is that todays performance is somewhere in the ballpark of high 160's/low 170's.
EC1
On a break
he wouldn't have beat Petit Robin 20 though if he had stood up..was travelling best in the race