Road to the Champion Chase 2011

I would fancy him to beat all of the above with the exception of Big Zeb.How many of them did he beat in the Arkle last year.
 
I don't want Bobbyjo on my back around repeating the same points again, so I won't. You also mentioned many times you don't read the form in the typical fashion so there is no point in me trying to explain why I think all the others have superior form. What I will say is I think, in terms of a QMCC, Sizing Europe is slow, and has little chance. In my opinion you are throwing money away out of sentiment for the horse and connections, and have a very small chance of collecting on the place part, and virtually no chance on the win bet meaning your place bet is effectively a 2/1 bet. Good luck to you all the same. What do you make of his campaign?
 
I think he has an okay chance of being placed. I was never sure about him over a trip; I am not sure about him bck over 2m. I think he has been given an atrocious campaign.

But he is some hoor of a yolk. Savage engine on him. Classy.
 
Hamm said:
I agree with you and when I said the same a few weeks back I was told I was trolling; clearly not.
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He was campaigned as a GC horse this year and 5 weeks before Cheltenham he is back at the min trip so it's hard to argue that he hasn't being campaigned badly

As for his chances opinions will differ, At the very least, he should improve on better ground, a faster pace and the Cheltenham fences
 
i agree with Hamm - I'm not sure whats happening with all this attachment to SE - he is obviously not a CC type at all..not fast enough by a long chalk

The CC looks like being a very competetive race..not a weak renewal where a comparative plodder is going to sidle into a place
 
Hamm said:
As things stand, I would strongly fancy the following to finish above him..

Master Minded......Agreed
Big Zeb.........Agreed
Captain Cee Bee......See last year's Arkle
Woolcombe Folly......Maybe
French Opera.....:lol:
Somersby......See Captain CB
Mad Max........See Somersby
Golden Silver......LoL. Appalling record at Chelts.
Tataniano (if the ground 'good' enough for him):lol::lol: The two mile version of What a Friend.
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Okay, one more time...

Somersby and Mad Max have posted better performances subsequent to the Arkle than SE did in that race, and are (certainly in the case of the former) better horses over 2m.

Captain Cee Bee is for me a better horse, but one with more to come as opposed to the form in the book. Plus, his Arkle run can be written off as he broke a blood vessel. Not that I think he has to rely on this, but on a line through Osana, he is better than SE.

French Opera is a horse I really like; his second in the Grand Annual off 154 is top class form. Loves Cheltenham.

Tataniano - his Aintree win was comfortably the best 2m Novice run of last season. He can be forgiven his opening run this season and hasn't run since. He would be able to beat SE without factoring in any of the likely improvement still to come.

Golden Silver - obviously a better horse than SE on form, but I accept the point about his Cheltenham record. However, I think there is a touch of the Long Run can't win at Cheltenham thing about him as well - clearly a different horse this season, and could run well. I wouldn't personally back him to place.
 
Hamm said:
Okay, one more time...

Somersby and Mad Max have posted better performances subsequent to the Arkle than SE did in that race, and are (certainly in the case of the former) better horses over 2m.
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Mad Max's run in the Manifesto wasn't better than SE's Arkle and was over 20f anyway. I'll concede that Somersby's run behind MM at Ascot gives him the edge.

Hamm said:
Captain Cee Bee is for me a better horse, but one with more to come as opposed to the form in the book. Plus, his Arkle run can be written off as he broke a blood vessel. Not that I think he has to rely on this, but on a line through Osana, he is better than SE.
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More to come? He's 10. The Osana form line is bogus as that horse gave all he had to give at Cheltenham and was way below form at Aintree and Punchestown.

Hamm said:
Tataniano - his Aintree win was comfortably the best 2m Novice run of last season. He can be forgiven his opening run this season and hasn't run since. He would be able to beat SE without factoring in any of the likely improvement still to come.
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That Aintree win has not worked out at all. He has never beaten a decent horse on the top of his game.
 
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Somersby 7/2
Woolcombe Folly 4/1
Golden Silver 4/1
Sizing Europe 5/1
Captain Cee Bee 6/1
Tataniano 12/1
French Opera 20/1
Scotsirish 20/1
Gauvain 20/1
Mad Max 33/1
 
Regardless of the fact I view the race differently to you both, the one thing we can all look forward to is the most interesting QMCC since Moscow Flyer's.
 
LUKE said:
Somersby 7/2
Woolcombe Folly 4/1
Golden Silver 4/1
Sizing Europe 5/1
Captain Cee Bee 6/1
Tataniano 12/1
French Opera 20/1
Scotsirish 20/1
Gauvain 20/1
Mad Max 33/1
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If thats your tissue without two then how could you contemplate backing SE ew at 14's or 16's???
 
The without the front 2 market is probably the way to go backing Somersby. He is almost sure to run really well, staying on late, but not catching one or both of the top two in the market. 7/2 would be nice.
 
if we blotted out that massive rating MM chalked up..would he still be viewed as good?..if that race was overrated has it given us a false picture of MM..its always there in the back of your mind how good he was that day

i'm not saying he isn't worth the rating..but has it affected the price for MM in probably every race he has run since?
 
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When horse win by wide margins, I think you are better served knocking a few points off their ratings when looking for a guide to future performances.

I don't have a precise formula to propose, but when a horse wins by a jumps race on testing ground by 20 lengths I apply the one-length-per-pound formula for say the first ten lengths, but change it to perhaps two lengths per pound for lengths 11 to 20. In this way I would put a 20 length winning margin as being roughly one stone superior rather the 20lbs usually allotted in standard ratings.
 
Grey said:
When horse win by wide margins, I think you are better served knocking a few points off their ratings when looking for a guide to future performances.

I don't have a precise formula to propose, but when a horse wins by a jumps race on testing ground by 20 lengths I apply the one-length-per-pound formula for say the first ten lengths, but change it to perhaps two lengths per pound for lengths 11 to 20. In this way I would put a 20 length winning margin as being roughly one stone superior rather the 20lbs usually allotted in standard ratings.
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I get what you mean... it usually does pay to treat wide margin victories with some caution. I wouldn't be too eager to quantify that caution though.
 
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SteveM said:
I get what you mean... it usually does pay to treat wide margin victories with some caution. I wouldn't be too eager to quantify that caution though.
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Me neither, Steve. I was just trying to illustrate the point I was making.
 
My stats man tells me that the last 12 Arkle winners have been placed in the following Champion Chase.5 winners 5 seconds 2 thirds.
 
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