Road to the Champion Hurdle 19/20

granger said:
He has stepped up every day so far, remains to be seen how he handles the travel and festivities but he sure is one to be excited about
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I think he travelled over fine last year and handled the pre race occasion fine (whereas Battleoverdoyen did not for the same connections).

It was his green-ness during the race (and almost all his bumper runs) that cost him. Was still highly admirable to finish 4th in that race all things considered.

As you say, he's grown up considerably this season and none of that bumper greenness has been evident.

Different animal this year with the form in the book and the way a supreme will be run looks ideal for him imo. Can see him travelling like a dream in behind. I'd be surprised and disappointed if he's not at least involved in the finish.
 
The supreme is taking over the champion thread so may be better placed elsewhere but for a good supreme you need 2-3 horse who pull well clear and make the race

If Abas isn't one of these 4, I'll be shocked

His rivals of note this year..

Envoi - would possibly be CH favourite if running. Most exciting novice in a good few years

Latest Exhibition - Won a G2 and G1 since
 
Abacadabras is still in this race so eligible for discussion I suppose. As it happens, of the top 5 in the Supreme betting he rates 5th in both OR and best RPR.
 
granger said:
Is that directed at Abas?
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No. I'll be honest, I don't know Abas's form at all. I have to be pretty selective these days with the form I follow and couldn't tell you the first thing about the horse.

I was merely picking up on comments about this horse havng potential or that hose having potential and how good they might be.

I have in my mind - based on decades of compiling figures - a ball-park figure of what it takes to win certain races. A few years back Min was the talking horse. By about this time of the season I had managed to come up with a figure for it, not including its potential. It was up there with my notional Supreme-winning figure so I could understand why it was strong in the market and high on everyone's list for the race.

However, Altior had already smashed that ball-park figure without taking further potential into account so he was always going to be preferred.

It would be different, maybe, if something with form on the board [to win a certain race] was either taken out or left to the stable's second jockey to ride while the main jockey opted for something with 'potential'. I'd take that as a strong indication, especially in a championship race, that the stable has strong reason to believe the main jockey's ride is better still.

It doesn't happen often, though, and I'd be advocating taking each situation on its merits.
 
Desert Orchid said:
N

I was merely picking up on comments about this horse havng potential or that hose having potential and how good they might be.
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As a rule of thumb Mo and to clarify, if i ever speak of a novice hurdler having potential, I am not referring to the potential being the career as a novice hurdler but long term as a mature horse for either an open hurdle race or more hopefully a chasing career
 
Euronymous said:
Like Pic D'Orhy last week?
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:)

My immediate reaction was to reply "Touché" but then we're not really comparing apples with apples.

One of the reasons, for me, in looking for his type was a lack of convincing evidence of winning form in the exposed horses.

You'll also note my covering bet in the race was on a similar type in the JP-Hendo-BG mare Never Adapt. I think the days of the more obviously well-handicapped type winning the Betfair are numbered. Look at the lengths Skelton went to in order to get Ch'tibello to win the County. He had to put the horse away for two years, from Champion Hurdle outside contender to a mark of 146. Indeed, his extended run of poor form was much discussed on here as he clocked up defeat upon defeat. Remiluc had been dropped a similar amount in two runs and a long absence and couldn't win.

If Never Adapt hadn't run I'd have backed Ciel De Neige as it was a similar type. Henderson sent out two such types in last year's County but Ch'tibello's trainer had been even cleverer, and these three were over six lengths and more clear of a deeply competitive field headed by another Mullins 'job'.

I may have got lucky with Pic D'Orhy in that maybe Never Adapt would have won. Ken Pitterson reckons CDN would have won if he'd kept a straight line from the last. I'm not so sure. I think his stamina was giving out near the line and PDO was clearly very much last to come off the bridle. Who knows, maybe if Cobden had let the horse go a few strides earlier he'd have won more convincingly.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Possibly relative to Remiluc, Slim, but I'd argue that PDO was drawing away from CDN at the line. I'll have a look again today.
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Watched the closing stages a few times there. It isn't easy to tell due to the camera angle but it looks to me like there is very little material difference in the finishing positions of CDN, R & Sir V from the final marking post (50y) to the line, while PDO is level with them at that point but nearly a length clear at the line.

Edit, looking again, CDN is two lengths in front of Remiluc two out. Sir V was staying on better than either of those two close home despite being slightly hampered at the last.
 
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CDN idled in front for my money albeit I accept the winner was the last off the bit. I think Coleman would love to ride the race again.
 
Slim said:
CDN idled in front for my money albeit I accept the winner was the last off the bit. I think Coleman would love to ride the race again.
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I wouldn't rule out that CDN idled. I think I might have said as much last week but I reckon run the race another ten times (without Never Adapt) and PDO would win at least nine times.
 
What I would look forward to would be a rematch at revised handicap marks. At this stage, I wouldn't nominate one over the other with any confidence.
 
redundant pal said:
With Ciel De Neige staying on again at the finish, I can't see what Coleman did wrong on him.
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The obvious interpretation would be that he idled then responded to the challenge but the winner had already taken at least half a length off him before he responded.

Has Aidan Coleman said anything about it idling? I only have the form hard copy and other comments elsewhere in the Weekender. Ken Pitterson says it was wandering that beat him, the form book says he "couldn't stay on as well as the winner" and "might have been in front soon enough".

I plan to watch the race yet again as I note Stolen Silver seemed to do best of those who came from well back and might be an outsider for the Supreme (rated 145 going into this race so would probably have needed to be a 150+ animal to win it. He was wearing the first colours, Sir V the second).
 
I think he stayed fine DO just like most of Authorized's progeny.

Given they had been hiding his light under a bushel up until this race (held up), nobody could have known Ciel De Neige would idle to the extent he did.

Coleman would certainly only have been riding to instructions from the boss. If they were so concerned about him maybe they should have put Geraghty up.
 
Abracadabras is the one I'm favouring too. He's got the formline that stands scrutiny. Both he and Fiddlerontheroof got all their experience in early and go there as fresh horses too. One of Nicky's will probably place, but they are easily the two for me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I plan to watch the race yet again as I note Stolen Silver seemed to do best of those who came from well back and might be an outsider for the Supreme (rated 145 going into this race so would probably have needed to be a 150+ animal to win it. He was wearing the first colours, Sir V the second).
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The form of this race is very suspect, the standing start and then the faller at the last changed the whole complexion....If you fancy Stolen Silver then you have to ignore this result as far as Thebannerkingrebel is concerned, he gave weight and made the running into a headwind behind the rallying Stolen Silver (favoured by the long straight) at Haydock..I'd take Edwardstone from that race too.
 
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Maxbet said:
The form of this race is very suspect, the standing start and then the faller at the last changed the whole complexion....If you fancy Stolen Silver then you have to ignore this result as far as Thebannerkingrebel is concerned, he gave weight and made the running into a headwind behind the rallying Stolen Silver (favoured by the long straight) at Haydock..I'd take Edwardstone from that race too.
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The way I see it, Maxbet, the start was very unsatisfactory and the fallers at the last only changed the complexion of the race as far as the minor places were concerned but good-ground fast-run Betfairs are never suspect, form-wise.

For a couple of seasons now, Haydock has been throwing up some iffy finishes in that some horses are going clear after the last before seemingly beaten rivals are coming back past them very late yet the run-in doesn't look much, if any, further than Newbury's.

TBKR was one of my bets on Saturday. He got a similar ride to CDN (leading the chasing pack on the inside) but couldn't go with the principals from the second last. He was two lengths behind CDN at that point but was nearly last at the line, having been pushing for a place six lengths in front of Stolen Silver a few strides after the last. Maybe the faster pace and better ground found him out so I'm not sure a valid comparison can be made.

As for Edwardstone, I think his price (20/1) is much closer to being the right one than Stolen Silver's and all I'm trying to do is poach a bit of value. I wouldn't be surprised if the 14/1-20/1 bracket is where both will sit come the day.
 
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I’m half hoping Edwardstone gets forgotten about and goes a little bit bigger. I fancy him to run a big race. Abacadabras will be my main bet atm, though I really Asterion Forlonge. Shishkin is an absolute rancid price
 
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