Road to the Champion Hurdle 2023

archie said:
Maybe we should try rating today's race via Highway One O Two rather than Epatante.
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Constitution Hill comes out near-enough 170 hard-held if we rate him through H1O2 - so probably still good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Rate him through Sceau Royal, and it's a ridiculous number. So where do we go with it? It's almost a pointless exercise trying to hang a number on today's performance, I reckon - though if we're so inclined to try, then Epatante would be the obvious starting-point, I'd say.

Basically, we're not going to get a robust handle on exactly how he good Constitution Hill is, until he runs against the Grade 1 Irish hurdlers. Unfortunately, we'll need to wait for Cheltenham for that, because the chances of Henderson allowing him to run at the DRF are absolutely zero, imo (more's the pity).
 
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Grasshopper said:
……..Basically, we're not going to get a robust handle on exactly how he good Constitution Hill is, until he runs against the Grade 1 Irish hurdlers. Unfortunately, we'll need to wait for Cheltenham for that, because the chances of Henderson allowing him to run at the DRF are absolutely zero, imo (more's the pity)……..
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That’s true, but I think I’ll go with he’s the best I’ve seen until he shows he’s not, rather than holding fire until he proves it.
 
Yes, the safest way to go in these situations is to use the one known to have run closest to form as a benchmark.

I'll need to wait and see what the sections come up with but I thought the pace was modest through the first half.

As for H102, I do think he has taken his form to a new level this season. I just hope today doesn't kill his current handicap mark ahead of the likes of the Schweppes.
 
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I'm not worried about times and ratings,but what I see and last years supreme win was spectacular considering all the hype about jonbon and DD.and this year it's done what has been expected.
I will probably never back it again and would love to see him take all put before him.

An Capall says State Man will win the champion hurdle.
I must admit he hasnt said which year.
 
Outsider said:
I'm not worried about times and ratings,but what I see and last years supreme win was spectacular considering all the hype about jonbon and DD.and this year it's done what has been expected.
I will probably never back it again and would love to see him take all put before him.
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I do have a certain amount of envy for people who do well at the game without at least checking times, ratings, etc. It sounds a bit to me like Alec Guinness and Obe Wan and his velvet voice softly urging, "Use the force..."

I think, though, it's only natural to want to be able to quantify ability because when contenders meet you want to know which is the most likely winner. Beyond that there are other factors which might be interpreted as likely to prevent a horse running to its full ability or others might take their form to a new level due to new circumstances (extra trip, headgear, etc).

But I still want to be able to quantify that ability.

It was obvious last year that CH was shaping up as a monster and its great to see him progress. His rating, to be fair, is largely irrelevant given how superior he obviously is but I want to be able to compare him with Istabraq, Persian War and the other greats. Perhaps doing so to the ounce is impossible but ti get within a close ball park figure should be worth researching.
 
edgt said:
CH just keeps doing it, doesn't he ?
Hope he stays injury free long enough to put any naysayer , myself included, in their place.
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Constitution Hill hasn't reached the same level he achieved in beating Jonbon in the Supreme. To be fair, he hasn't needed to yet.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I do have a certain amount of envy for people who do well at the game without at least checking times, ratings, etc. It sounds a bit to me like Alec Guinness and Obe Wan and his velvet voice softly urging, "Use the force..."

I think, though, it's only natural to want to be able to quantify ability because when contenders meet you want to know which is the most likely winner. Beyond that there are other factors which might be interpreted as likely to prevent a horse running to its full ability or others might take their form to a new level due to new circumstances (extra trip, headgear, etc).

But I still want to be able to quantify that ability.

It was obvious last year that CH was shaping up as a monster and its great to see him progress. His rating, to be fair, is largely irrelevant given how superior he obviously is but I want to be able to compare him with Istabraq, Persian War and the other greats. Perhaps doing so to the ounce is impossible but ti get within a close ball park figure should be worth researching.
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Does a few good ratings against similar oppo make an all time great though? Persian War, Night Nurse, Monksfield, Sea Pigeon etc raced for seasons agains better horses than Epatante, and they were at it nearly every week. I think about Hawk Wing on a smaller scale, got one high rating at Newbury, and then were people saying just based on that he was brilliant. High ratings are superb, but you also need a CV to back it up. If CH stays sound then he will have that..but not yet. He certainly looks a monster to me.
 
It's a fair enough question, I suppose, but I'm really looking to see what each performance amounts to in quantifiable terms. Once we have a lengthy enough CV of such quantifiable performances against the best of the rest we can think about his place in the pantheon.

Istabraq, for example, rarely put up a quantifiable performance much beyond 170 but did so with ease because he was the best in a moderate era.

I do think what CH did the other day was better from that quantifiable perspective than just about any hurdler I've ever seen but I accept he'll probably need to do it three or four times more. I have mixed feelings about the possibility of his going chasing next season. It could rob us of the definitive 'best ever' hurdler.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It's a fair enough question, I suppose, but I'm really looking to see what each performance amounts to in quantifiable terms. Once we have a lengthy enough CV of such quantifiable performances against the best of the rest we can think about his place in the pantheon.

Istabraq, for example, rarely put up a quantifiable performance much beyond 170 but did so with ease because he was the best in a moderate era.

I do think what CH did the other day was better from that quantifiable perspective than just about any hurdler I've ever seen but I accept he'll probably need to do it three or four times more. I have mixed feelings about the possibility of his going chasing next season. It could rob us of the definitive 'best ever' hurdler.
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I would hate him going chasing tbh. I want some of the 70s back DO:) People of a younger age always say Istabraq was the best they have seen, and one of the reasons was his 3 CH wins. But that never seems to apply to Best Mate or See You Then, they get run down for what they beat in doing their 3 wins. Well what did Istabraq beat?..Theatreworld twice..who was hardly Night Nurse, Monksfield, Sea Pigeon or Birds Nest? I doubt Theatreworld was even Pollardstown.

I am being controversial a little saying that, but I like horses to be compared equally, not by bias. I do think Istabraq fans don't use the same way of looking at his form critically like they do with See You Then and Best Mate. Neither of those two beat great horses, but they still won 3.

So I will ask, why is Istabraq looked on better than either of those two horses? Serious question, not knocking Istabraq.

I agree, CH is something special, particularly given his inexperience. The problem we might have is that no other horse is going to get upside him and see just how he can battle. Then again, he might be that good, that would never happen. That is the thing with those 70s hurdlers, all of them at one time faced a real battle head to head, and found more when they were head to headed. Sadly now the hurdling rank is so bare when it comes to Champion Hurdle day we might not see anything like those battles again. I still love watching the 70s CH's, I recommend everyone do so if they haven't.

The only way they made Arkle battle was rearranging the handicap system to make future Gold Cup horses to recieve 42lb from him. Then had the cheek to say such as Stalbridge Colonist beat him.
 
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EC21 said:
Why though? Would you have liked Istabraq to go chasing and miss out on his later CH wins?
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Profile of horse being one. Isty was never going to jump a fence

Chasers carry more prestige to me.

I never wanted to see Hurricane jump a fence but Faugheen for sure after he won a champion hurdle I did.

Constitution Hill for sure is one I'd like to see around Sandown and Kempton over the big ones
 
granger said:
Profile of horse being one. Isty was never going to jump a fence

Chasers carry more prestige to me.

I never wanted to see Hurricane jump a fence but Faugheen for sure after he won a champion hurdle I did.

Constitution Hill for sure is one I'd like to see around Sandown and Kempton over the big ones
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I never get how you NH guys come to these conclusions re hurdles and chasers, but am eager to learn. I will ask a serious question, why were HF and Istabraq not chasers but Constition Hill is a chaser in future? Is it how they hurdle? I have seen many novice hurdlers who jump too high for hurdles, a simplistic tell I assume?, they probably lose ground with the height. Is that a clue? I certainly know what you mean if that is the case. HF was a low jumper, his head hardly lifted when he hurdled. Make A Stand was the other hurdler who I would say is the best over a hurdle I ever saw, he just lifted his legs, head never hardly went up. Do you think there are natural hurdlers and natural jumpers from when they are at the hurdling stage of their careers?

I am thinking along the lines of 110 metre hurdlers at the olympics, the natural hurdlers heads hardly move up, it is all in the leg.

What did you think of Make A Stand as a hurdler? he may never have been the best ever on ratings but I really took to him and the way he led all the way and hardly ever made a mistake, he also had that low style of passing over hurdles. The best hurdlers always seem to just lift their legs, it isn't even a jump they do.

I might have answered my own question here.
 
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granger said:
Profile of horse being one. Isty was never going to jump a fence

Chasers carry more prestige to me.

I never wanted to see Hurricane jump a fence but Faugheen for sure after he won a champion hurdle I did.

Constitution Hill for sure is one I'd like to see around Sandown and Kempton over the big ones
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Re prestige...I grew up and fell in love with the Champion Hurdle in the 70s, that is why I always love hurdlers rather than chasers. That is why in the past I always make more posts on the CH thread, I am sure you are right re prestige amongst many people, Gold Cup winners are always more well known than hurdlers. What era did you first get into NH racing? I think sometimes it is the first thing you get into that burns you, a bit like music really when you are 16, that is what gets you for good. Don't get me wrong, I always loved NH racing overall but the Champion Hurdle always grabbed me more than the Gold Cup. Anyone who was watching Cheltenham in the 70s would always have been a CH lover above a GC lover I feel. I could be wrong though, have been lots;)
 
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Just to add Granger, you always been a good guy to me, sorry for any upset I caused way back when, I know I f**ked up. I regret it a lot. I just want to talk racing now, its what I am best at, well, used to be, and I know you guys just want that too.
 
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I'm with you EC when it comes to my favourite race. Ever since Persian War who I followed blindly the Champion Hurdle has been head and shoulders for me above any other race flat or jumps.

In a normal year on forums it has at times attracted more comments on the lead up than all the other races put together at the festival.

We often debate which horse was the best but what most don't realise is there is fractions in time between most of them.


It is often said the Champion Hurdle is won and lost from the 2nd last where the race really gets into top gear.


Some facts: Night Nurse Hurricane Fly and Binocular were about the same split by fractions of a second but all were faster than Monksfield and Honeysuckle who both clocked exactly the same time.. Sea pigeoen who to be fair was held up longest was 1 second slower.

There probably would only been is only a couple of lengths between all of those mentioned.

But then you come to Constitution Hill and under no pressure clocks a time 2 and 3 seconds faster than them all and he was novice.

If Peter O'Sullivan was still alive I think commentating he would be saying
as he said Arkle V Mill House "This is the Champion this is the best we have seen in a long time"
 
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granger said:
I for one will be disappointed if he doesn't go chasing.
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Nicky being Nicky I don't think you will have to wait long. He never sent See You Then chasing but he was hard enough to keep sound.

He didn't hesitate to send Altior or Sprinter Sacre chasing and either could more than likely have won a Champion Hurdle.

The difference with Constitution Hill is there is no "More than Likely" about it unless he gets struck by lightning.

Nicky has always taken prize money into consideration which has kept him at the top for years.

I would bet he's thinking The Champion Hurdle is worth 140k more than the Arkle which he may have covered anyway with Jonbon

All being well the following year he'll be thinking Ryanir for Jonbon and skip the Arkle and go straight to the Champion Chase with Constitution Hill.

I could be wrong but for me he has the goods to do just that.
 
Whatever will be will be. For the moment I’m just happy to savour what’s put in front of us - makes my old heart sing it does. Magnificent is not too strong a word and rightly applied for once in this age of hyperbole.
 
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I’m badly hungover today, but I smell something unpleasant about 5/6 State Man. Should surely be much shorter based on Morgiana run, and Mullins less than enthusiastic updates re Vauban.
 
Grasshopper said:
I’m badly hungover today, but I smell something unpleasant about 5/6 State Man. Should surely be much shorter based on Morgiana run, and Mullins less than enthusiastic updates re Vauban.
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I have an unusually [these days] for me heavy bet on Sharjah today at 6/1. This is his Champion Hurdle. There will be other days for State Man.
 
EC21 said:
I never get how you NH guys come to these conclusions re hurdles and chasers, but am eager to learn. I will ask a serious question, why were HF and Istabraq not chasers but Constition Hill is a chaser in future? Is it how they hurdle? I have seen many novice hurdlers who jump too high for hurdles, a simplistic tell I assume?, they probably lose ground with the height. Is that a clue? I certainly know what you mean if that is the case. HF was a low jumper, his head hardly lifted when he hurdled. Make A Stand was the other hurdler who I would say is the best over a hurdle I ever saw, he just lifted his legs, head never hardly went up. Do you think there are natural hurdlers and natural jumpers from when they are at the hurdling stage of their careers?

I am thinking along the lines of 110 metre hurdlers at the olympics, the natural hurdlers heads hardly move up, it is all in the leg.

What did you think of Make A Stand as a hurdler? he may never have been the best ever on ratings but I really took to him and the way he led all the way and hardly ever made a mistake, he also had that low style of passing over hurdles. The best hurdlers always seem to just lift their legs, it isn't even a jump they do.

I might have answered my own question here.
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Istabraq and Hurricane Fly were flat bred and Hurricane Fly in particular was quite small. Faugheen and Constitution Hill are NH bred, are bigger and both were graduates of the point to point circut.
 
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