Road To The Champion Hurdle

Steve T said:
McNamara from the Sporting Life:

"Obviously if I did happen to get the ride on Osana, it would be a lovely ride to get. But if Catch Me were to run I would be riding him for Mr O'Grady."
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I guess Catch Me will go to Aintree, although he would have been interesting in the Champion (or the Stayers for that matter).
 
Having just watched the gallop on the Racing Post website, I fail to see how anyone could take a strong view either way on the gallop. Looked like a strong piece of work but at the same time neither horse was asked any serious question.
 
Galileo said:
Having just watched the gallop on the Racing Post website, I fail to see how anyone could take a strong view either way on the gallop. Looked like a strong piece of work but at the same time neither horse was asked any serious question.
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Quite so... I don't think anyone is basing an opinion of him on this gallop. They are basing their opinion on what he has already shown, plus the fact that he'll be fit by post time (with this and any subsequent pieces of work under his belt).
 
I think Binocular is going to be very hard to beat, but if his stablemate Punjabi is with him coming up the hill Punjabi could get him. I've taken the 25s with Hills this morning.
 
Binocular's suitability for the course is my only worry. There's limited evidence and we don't know how good Capatain Cee Bee would have been but a flat out beating of Snap Tie by 4+ lengths getting 8lbs doesn't read that well in the context of a Champion Hurdle. He did travel well enough that day and the run at Ascot would lead me to believe that staying shouldn't be a problem so, while I have my doubts, I'll put it down as "one of those things" that he got beaten last year. Part of it is laziness, it's much too hard to figure out what will win if he doesn't.
 
Melendez said:
Binocular's suitability for the course is my only worry. There's limited evidence and we don't know how good Capatain Cee Bee would have been but a flat out beating of Snap Tie by 4+ lengths getting 8lbs doesn't read that well in the context of a Champion Hurdle. He did travel well enough that day and the run at Ascot would lead me to believe that staying shouldn't be a problem so, while I have my doubts, I'll put it down as "one of those things" that he got beaten last year. Part of it is laziness, it's much too hard to figure out what will win if he doesn't.
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You've reminded me that I like Snap Tie though... any idea what he's going for (County Hurdle?)
 
Melendez said:
Binocular's suitability for the course is my only worry. There's limited evidence and we don't know how good Capatain Cee Bee would have been but a flat out beating of Snap Tie by 4+ lengths getting 8lbs doesn't read that well in the context of a Champion Hurdle. He did travel well enough that day and the run at Ascot would lead me to believe that staying shouldn't be a problem so, while I have my doubts, I'll put it down as "one of those things" that he got beaten last year. Part of it is laziness, it's much too hard to figure out what will win if he doesn't.
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Whilst I would be optimistic that the combination of faster ground (time suggests last year's ground was verging on genuine soft) and being held together for longer would make the difference, the nagging doubt about the hill is certainly enough to put me off ploughing in at current prices.
 
I find it hard to understand why Binocular is such a short-priced favourite for this race. Here are his speed ratings from Cheltenham last year through to his most recent run at Ascot:

SR RPR
Chelt Mar 2008 149 148
Aint Apr 2008 158 157
Hayd Nov 2008 - 138
Asc Dec 2008 154 172

And here are Celestial Halo's:

Chelt Mar 2008 150 149
Aint Apr 2008 150 146
Asc Dec 2008 149 165
Sand Jan 2009 154 165

Third at Ascot was Chomba Womba:

Chelt Mar 2008 141 146
Winc Nov 2008 129 151
Asc Nov 2008 137 151
Asc Dec 2008 131 151
Donc Jan 2009 103 132

Next came Katchit:

Chelt Mar 2008 157 167
Kemp Oct 2008 157 157
Winc Nov 2008 136 158
Asc Dec 2008 137 158

Crack Away Jack was last:

Chelt Mar 2008 135 149
Chep Oct 2008 134 153
Asc Nov 2008 137 154
Asc Dec 2008 127 150

Finally, here are Osana's figures:

Chelt Mar 2008 156 166
Aint Apr 2008 136 158
Sand Jan 2009 155 165


The first conclusion would be that Crack Away Jack has done nothing ratings wise to justify a place near the head of the betting.

Second, it seems the RPRs for Binocular's Ascot race may have been inflated. There is a clear gap between the speed rating and the RPR. That can be quite normal, of course, but the Racing Post analysis of the race includes the following remark: "A tactical race was the big worry, but that criticism could not levelled against it after last year's Triumph winner, Celestial Halo, set off at a brisk pace and rounded Swinley Bottom some 10 lengths clear of the other four, who were tightly grouped". That was also my impression while watching the race. In these circumstances it seems hard to justify such a gap between the respective ratings. The fact that Chomba Womba bombed next time out, Katchit was off colour and Crack Away Jack ran below form, and that all three ran slower than usual is not encouraging either.

A knock-on effect of this inflation is that Celestial Halo's and Osana's race at Sandown may also have been overvalued in order to maintain consistency in the ratings. The net effect is that Celestial Halo's RPR is portrayed as improving by more than a stone this season while running just a few pounds faster. Meanwhile Osana is reckoned to have run the same race in defeat at Sandown as when coming second in last year's Champion Hurdle, which I would think surprising on a seasonal debut in a Listed race.

In my opinion the race is much more open than the betting suggests. I would take a few notches off Binocular's rating and put him somewhere in the mid 160s. He is entitled to be favourite because he is one of those with the most potential to improve, but I would put him around 7/2, not 11/8. All his form has been on flat tracks apart from his run last year against Captain Cee Bee (ok, Ascot is not flat, but its inclines are steady and gradual), so there is a slight doubt about the hill.
 
Without having a go Grey, I think anyone using speed ratings for National Hunt racing is out of their mind.
 
From Sporting Life:

Henry DeBromhead:

How has Sizing Europe been since Leopardstown and how's his work been lately?
Henry De Bromhead: He's been fine and his work has been good.

Is he all set to take his chance in the Champion Hurdle?

HDB: Yes, we are looking forward to running him next week.

He was 2/1 favourite last year and a 20/1 chance now, what do you think of those odds?

HDB:I think he'd look a bit of value now hopefully.

He's travelled really well before weakening a couple of times in his recent races, do you think he has genuine excuses for those performances?

HDB: In last year's Champion he pulled up with a problem, and he's been treated for that and he's perfect with that now. Then at Chrsitmas there was no pace, no gallop and it turned into a sprint so it wouldn't have suited.

With genuine excuses both times, if conditions were in his favour next week it could be very different for him then?

HDB: I'd definitely be hoping so. He's in good form and Denis O'Regan takes the ride.

What do you think his ideal ground conditions are?

HDB: He goes on anything but I personally think he's a better horse on better ground.


Robbie Hennessy:

understand Sublimity did a nice piece of work at Leopardstown on Sunday?

Robbie Hennessy: He did and I was very happy with him. He worked over a mile and a half and he kicked on past his work partner with four furlongs to go and he did it very nicely.

What did Philip Carberry say afterwards, did he give him a good feel?

RH: Fitness-wise he was very happy with him. The ground was lovely there at Leopardstown and he said he bounced off it. He came up the straight and he wasn't hard on him by any means but he enjoyed it. My vet was at Leopardstown yesterday too and he scoped cleanly, so all the signs are looking good.

That's it for him until the Champion Hurdle then, he won't be doing much?

RH: No, he'll have a pipe opener on Friday morning just to give him a blow out and then he'll travel over Saturday night.

It goes without saying that you'll be keeping an eye on the skies?

RH: It looks to be in our favour at the moment. A couple of showers are due but it looks good. Good-to-soft would be perfect, just so he could get his toe in. If it ends up like that I'll be delighted.

Looking at is record this season he was second at Wetherby and then won at Leopardstown. With excuses last time do you think he's a big price at 16/1?

RH: The heavy ground was an excuse last time, as well as the slight infection in his lungs, which we cleared up. So I'd discard the last run the way the ground turned heavy in the hour before the race. Soft would've been fine for him but heavy wasn't. At 16/1 he's a great price.

Is the week before the Champion Hurdle a nervy time in your first season as a trainer?

RH: There's butterflies for sure. I was just listening to Nicky Henderson and he says he's getting nervous so if he can I'm sure there's no excuses for me getting nervous! It's exciting and I'm really looking forward to it.

There could be a few front runners next Tuesday, would a strongly run two miles around Cheltenham suit him?

RH: I'd say there would be no doubt in the world that there will be a really strong pace this year. It's going to be a tactical affair and I'd say ourselves and Binocular will just sit off it and just hope they go off a bit too fast for their own good. There's four or five that could want to make the running.

And you'll be hoping he'll be swinging off the bit round the final corner like he was two years ago?

RH: Exactly that. They played into his hands two years ago when Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace went a good lick and it would be great if a similar thing happened again.
 
Hamm said:
Without having a go Grey, I think anyone using speed ratings for National Hunt racing is out of their mind.
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They're certainly not the first thing to look at when evaluating jumps form. But they provide a useful cross-check if conventional ratings appear suspect.
 
Grey said:
..............A knock-on effect of this inflation is that Celestial Halo's and Osana's race at Sandown may also have been overvalued in order to maintain consistency in the ratings. The net effect is that Celestial Halo's RPR is portrayed as improving by more than a stone this season while running just a few pounds faster. Meanwhile Osana is reckoned to have run the same race in defeat at Sandown as when coming second in last year's Champion Hurdle, which I would think surprising on a seasonal debut in a Listed race.

In my opinion the race is much more open than the betting suggests. I would take a few notches off Binocular's rating and put him somewhere in the mid 160s. He is entitled to be favourite because he is one of those with the most potential to improve, but I would put him around 7/2, not 11/8. All his form has been on flat tracks apart from his run last year against Captain Cee Bee (ok, Ascot is not flat, but its inclines are steady and gradual), so there is a slight doubt about the hill.
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Very much my interpretation too, Grey.
 
It`s a shame Captain Cee Bee hasn`t been around to boost that form further. It was still a cracking run from a 4yo in a race like the Supreme.
 
Hardy Eustace will be running at his 7th consecutive festival when he lines up for the Champion Hurdle. Anyone know what the record is?
 
Incredible that Hardy, Brave Inca and Harchibald are all set to run - would love to see any one of them in the frame...would be remarkable durability really, particularly considering two of them have had serious injuries.
 
Catch Me will definitely be sent to Aintree rather than take part in the Champion, as we reasoned.
 
How about a match bet, Rod? You can have Celestial, I'll take Osana.

£50 payable at the window in the Mandarin after the race?? :)
 
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