Road To The Champion Hurdle

A good time to start pre-Festival book-building. Ladbrokes go NRNB on the big-four Championship races plus the KG. Love taking advantage of NRNB concessions to establish some defensive positions freeing yourself up to back an alternative nearer the time.
In addition to Peddlers Cross at 6/1 I’ve backed Imperial Commander at 7/1 ew for the KG and had a win saver on him for the Gold Cup to cover my stake on Denman. Long Run would look big at 10s if he did go for the Stayers Hurdle (money back if he doesn’t).

Backing Peddlers Cross now is great as it frees me up to back one of the others such as Binocular or Hurricane Fly should they look like shaping up, using Peddlers Cross as a safety net.
 
Philip Fenton has confirmed that his star hurdler Dunguib will be saved for the second half of the season, in order to have him at his peak for the major prizes in the spring.
The top class bumper performer barely came off the bridle in his four appearances over obstacles last winter but was then beaten at odds-on in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, before finishing only sixth in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown.
Fenton said: “Everything is fine, he’s in good form and we’re very happy with him. He’s just cantering away at the moment and we made the decision that he wouldn’t start off until after Christmas because we don’t want to run him in heavy ground again.”
He added: “We just think that the second half of the season is more important than the first half, so hopefully we’ll see him some time in January.
“The Irish Champion Hurdle might be ambitious for his first run but that might be an option, we’ll just have a look and see nearer the time. I’ve still got every faith in him and he’s in brilliant order.”
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Should look at the world hurdle or chasing - a mile behind the best over hurdles, and well behind the best of his own age group.
 
Thats a strange one with Dunguib IMO. Should (or should have) got him running in better paced larger fields for the experience (which i suspect he needs) and its certainly not all been "heavy ground" everywhere this season
 
Hamm said:
Should look at the world hurdle or chasing - a mile behind the best over hurdles, and well behind the best of his own age group.
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A bit harsh, Hamm. Menorah has held-up the Supreme form nicely, and it's surely too early to be writing Dunguib off.
 
Menorah sets the standard so far this season. Anything that beats Menorah won't be far away in the big one.
 
I really like Menorah, his win in the Supreme novices last season was better than it looked, he hit the front way too soon and idled on the run in. He seems a tricky horse to ride as he has to be held up and needs a a really strong pace, plus needs good ground.

I believe Cue Card will run in the International this weekend at Cheltenham, therefore taking on Menorah and Silviniaco Conti. This should be a cracking race, it will be very interesting to see how Cue Card will get on out of novice company.

The Champion Hurdle is shaping up to be the most competitive races of the festival. IMO, I believe that the an English horse will win the renewal in March, I don't believe Solwhit or Hurricane Fly are as good as they are made out.

JohnJ
 
The market for this race is a fascinating one at the moment. You have to think a Khyber Kim or even a Go Native would have beaten a below par Binocular as easy as Peddlers did the other day. They both look reasonable value for this at 14s and 25s. Dunguib at 20s has a certain amount of appeal also.

Peddlers Cross, Menorah, Hurricane Fly, Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti all look too short.
 
Could Cue Card be another Rhinestone Cowboy though - novices seldom win the CH and Make a Stand was the last and beat a moderate field.
 
Euronymous said:
The market for this race is a fascinating one at the moment. You have to think a Khyber Kim or even a Go Native would have beaten a below par Binocular as easy as Peddlers did the other day. They both look reasonable value for this at 14s and 25s. Dunguib at 20s has a certain amount of appeal also.

Peddlers Cross, Menorah, Hurricane Fly, Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti all look too short.
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You would have to include Binocular in the the too short list also IMO
 
Euronymous,

The thing that's in my mind about the Newbury race is that the conditions of the race would not bring out the best in Peddlers Cross, he will be better seen with a stronger pace and on a more testing track.

JohnJ
 
I appreciate that, and he's not one to right off. But 6/1 seems a bit cramped to me in a very competitive looking race at this stage.
 
Hurricane fly the worst price of all.

You may well be onto something with khyber Kim.

Menorah still the one for me.
 
I was never a Dunguib fan and his defeat at the festival got the ball rolling nicely
for me.Straight after Rite of Passage won the Ascot Gold
Cup I thought about Welds remark after Dunguibs Punchestown bumper
victory that he was good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.The engine is obviously there I would have no problem forgiving him his Punchestown defeat this year-the question is how to assess his festival defeat.
I'm not saying I would back him but I certainly wouldn't lay him and there is some fat there as a potential back to lay.
 
Hamm said:
Hurricane fly the worst price of all.

You may well be onto something with khyber Kim.

Menorah still the one for me.
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Hurricane Fly has yet to prove a lot and still despite what he has done is still a bit of a talking horse to me. I think Khyber is a smashing horse and him being beaten last year broke my heart and wallet - don't think there is much more to come from him improvement wise but he will be there or thereabouts and nothing stirs the blood like seeing a horse tanking behind the leaders comming down the hill!! I respect the opinion that both last years novices are a bit short at 6/1 and 9/1 respectively but both have so much potential and have proved themselves on the track that those prices were irresistabe to me and have backed them accordingly - first time ever for me backing antepost before Christmas. I believe strongly that Peddlers Cross could be an absolute monster - Thomond O Meara believes we haven't seen 80% of what the horse is capable of!! I hope he's right!
 
LUKE said:
The engine is obviously there I would have no problem forgiving him his Punchestown defeat this year-the question is how to assess his festival defeat.
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He just wasn't as well positioned as the winner and runner-up and they did not go mental pace wise which I think tactically they expected with it being the Supreme. Maybe a more experienced jockey would have sussed this out and move him up earlier. The layers have overreacted to him getting beat and he appeals at 20s+ if all is well and a return to the track is on the horizon.
 
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Interesting that they are leaving Dunguib to return so late - I remember stating on here that they had him out very early last year and he is a horse that is pretty hard on himself.

I love Hurricane Fly, and think he has as most of these but would want to see him actually getting there this time.
 
Bula Hurdle:
Cristal Bonus
Silviniaco Conti (FR) 4.g
Clerk's Choice (IRE) 4.g
Cue Card 4.g
Menorah (IRE) 5.g
Astracad (FR) 4.g
Der Spieler (GER) 5.g
Liberty Seeker (FR) 11.g
Nicene Creed 5.g
 
France - owned by Sean Mulryan and trained by Christophe Aubert.

Finished runner-up in the Grade 1 Prix Renaud Du Vivier last month to Bel La Vie - it's effectively the French Triumph Hurdle.

Previously beaten into sixth in a trial for that race and won a listed hurdle at Auteuil in September.

Won a Grade 3 3yo Hurdle at Enghien in November 2009
 
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