Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

Hamm said:
No, I don't think so, OTB - the problem with people who use sectionals militantly is that they have their eyes on an excel spreadsheet rather than watching the race. The time, and sectionals can't be disputed. They can, however, be put in context - Carlton House was travelling much the best horse, but in those last few furlongs had little chance to run as fast as he could because he was stuck behind the Morrison horse and Seville - when the gap opened he took it as well as a top horse could hope to take it, and shot through. There was no chance for him to run the last 3 furlongs any quicker because of the way the race ran for him with the traffic problems.


I have watched the race again there Hamm .. I would have to say any he suffered very little interference and got his gap fully 2f out.
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You are missing the point about the slow pace - a faster pace would have improved his performance, as he would have settled better and had more energy to expand at the end of the race.

Tartan Bearer has a lot of form which ties in very very closely with Vision d'etat, Conduit (& hence Sea the Stars) - his form certainly stacks up.

I think you are wrong with judging his Juddmonte run - he ran no kind of race and was clearly much too fresh.

He was top class but unfortunately wasn't campaigned in all of the right races and raced in the best way for him.
 
Aragorn said:
Time - The point quite clearly is that if the race had been run faster he would have struggled. As it was it was slowly run and he could pull for his head the whole way and still get home. He was second in two guineas so that was always going to play to his strengths.
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For me if the race had been run at a sound pace he wouldn't have pulled for his head so much early on and would have pissed it.
 
Ardross said:
Interesting, a Lumley-v- Wagner injunction in horse racing !

The law will not enforce a contract for personal service by way of injunction i.e the court would not order Fallon to ride NK but it can be used to prevent such a personal service being rendered to other persons e.g you enter into a contract to sing at X's theatre for a month and then break it to sing at Y's instead .

However, this is usually only where the contract that provides for the positive obligation e.g to sing at X's theatre also provides that you are not to sing for anyone else during that period .

It seems very unlikely that any contract to ride NK would include a promise not to ride anyone else's horse but if it did Fallon could be in trouble - they may be trying to argue that as it is impossible to ride two horses in one race such a term is implied but the courts have generally insisted on an express negative stipulation - without knowing the terms of the contract it is difficult to express a view but even if written I suspect the court would be disinclined to grant an injunction .

Fallon apparently alleged it was an innocent misunderstanding - it seems unlikely there is a written contract if that is the case . If the contract was oral I expect Fallon will be OK on the basis that there was no express negative term.
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Thanks Ardross. I was sort of thinking the same, but it's good to get 'professional' verification.
 
New Approach was some horse alright... I've never seen a horse wrestled to the ground and still win a classic like that. Sheikh M was astounded he was able to win in such circumstances.
 
And very lovely they'll look in blue and pink - what are the jockeys wearing?

Hamm - out of interest, how do timings people allow for things like Going and variables like high cross or head winds and heavy rain affecting their figures? We had 36mph crosswinds at Brighton a couple of meetings back, gusting to around 45 mph, and Firm going, even though watered and with a good underfoot spring to the grass (i.e. Firm, but not dead). If you had heavy rain, resulting in Soft and no winds three weeks later for the horse you were watching, what allowances would you use?

Additionally, what do timings fans allow for straight, easy run versus the undulations and turns of another course? Do you build in a sort of standard set per course, and then see how horses run to it? Like X over Lingfield's straight 'n' easy Turf 6f, but Z over Folkestone's undulations, for example?
 
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No - races are run on turf not on excel (I'm serious!). Numbers can only be applied to races IF you take into account what happened in a race. If you don't, they are worthless, especially the ones which don't indicate a fast horse.

That is the problem with sectionals, speed ratings etc - they are used too often in isolation. Most people on here have one item of form analysis they use above others - the weakness in nearly everyone (me included) is the failure to realise the limitations of relying on just one area and failing to see it only tells part, and sometimes none of, the story.
 
Hamm/Euro, we're all guessing though. You're guessing a) he would have settled better off a strong pace and b) he would have stayed. I'm guessing a) he might or might not b) I'm not sure he would have - depending on whether (a) still happened.

So Hamm, you're also missing the point because you're purely guessing that he would have stayed as you have no evidence to the contrary other than: he pulled hard and still won so he must have stayed. Then a sentence later you say he didn't win the Juddmonte cos he was too fresh?!!! What you mean is he pulled too hard and got beaten by some proper group 1 horses?!!!

You can't accuse me of missing points then contradict yourself in the same breath!!!!
 
Aragorn said:
Hamm/Euro, we're all guessing though. You're guessing a) he would have settled better off a strong pace and b) he would have stayed. I'm guessing a) he might or might not b) I'm not sure he would have - depending on whether (a) still happened.

So Hamm, you're also missing the point because you're purely guessing that he would have stayed as you have no evidence to the contrary other than: he pulled hard and still won so he must have stayed. Then a sentence later you say he didn't win the Juddmonte cos he was too fresh?!!! What you mean is he pulled too hard and got beaten by some proper group 1 horses?!!!

You can't accuse me of missing points then contradict yourself in the same breath!!!!
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I'll agree with you that we're all guessing! :p
 
Aragorn said:
Hamm/Euro, we're all guessing though
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Exactly, the point is guessing using whatever tools you're comfortable with to determine whether a horse's price is bigger than it should be.

I use objective measures like speed ratings as the foundations for my analysis and then apply a degree of subjectivity (taking into account things like slowly run races) to determine what price a horse should be.
 
I meant about hypothesising whether New Approach could have won better in a stronger run race or won the Arc.

I am obviously never guessing and almost always right :p
 
Hamm said:
I meant about hypothesising whether New Approach could have won better in a stronger run race or won the Arc.

I am obviously never guessing and almost always right :p
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...very true, almost always... apart from when you're not copying me.:thumbsup:
 
EC1 said:
they must think the horse has got one hell of a chance to be crying so much about it..maybe its a tip;)
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Hope you're right. The pair I'm on are Native Khan at 14s and 12s and Pour Moi at 6/1 and 9/2.

I'm very relaxed about Fallon not being on Khan after his performance on WoW today.;)
 
Will be fascinating to see what the Court of Appeal does . Mr Justice Macduff appears to have made some scathing comments about Fallon
 
Ardross said:
Will be fascinating to see what the Court of Appeal does . Mr Justice Macduff appears to have made some scathing comments about Fallon
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I was feeling sorry for him until today on WoW... I'd stop him riding at Royal Ascot too.:)
 
Ardross said:
Mr Justice Macduff appears to have made some scathing comments about Fallon
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If Native Khan is called in to give evidence and the judge helps him to the witness box the headline could read: “lead on Macduff”!
 
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