Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

On The Bridle said:
Carlton House - is he still a lay at 4's ?? I doubt it but the likelyhood now is he doesn't run.
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yes..imo still a lay at 4/1..and a cast iron lay at 6/4 as he was..6/4 was a gift from heaven..and the chance to back it now at 4/1 makes the lay a winner before the race has even been run..you can 100% win money now..which was sort of my whole point..you couldn't really lose either way..coz he was never a 40% chance of winning in first place
 
If he misses Epsom (and I hope he doesn't), Carlton House might have to be sent to the Curragh instead. I'm sure there would be a great reception for him there on account of his owner.
 
Neither. Ballydoyle are not in a position to insult a top class jockey in preference for Moore.
 
That's purely subjective. They obviously put him under pressure to take the Recital mount over Native Khan so there is no way they can jock him off. There will be other days this season when it will be a choice between Fallon or a couple of the lesser UK jockeys. Ballydoyle have to play the game if they want the best available to ride for them.
 
EC1 said:
your first paragraph describes why its not as good as STS versus FAG...so its not as good as previous years..correct

your 2nd paragraph makes no sense to me whatsover..and if i made it some hamster would be on biting me legs like the limpit he is

you are saying in one breath..oooh we might have a real superstar due to the unknown..but in your second breath are quite adamant Frankel would bomb at 12f..which is the same unknown..which means to me you have a negative slant against Frankel...but ...not all these unknown superstars about to appear Saturday
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I don't know how you managed to interpret it that way but let me clarify.

Most of the horses Saturday are specifically bred to run in Derbys.
Therefore Saturday will be the first time they are primed and asked for maximum effort. Coming to conclusions about this race before the race in impossible.Off the top of my head 'at first sight' officially improved 12lbs last year in the Derby (imo it was more) . A few of them this year with similar profiles are capable of that. That would be a good Derby if it happens.

How you reckon I have some kind of negative view of Frankel is beyond me. I think he will beat anything put in front of him this year over a mile (if his spark doesn't go out like the Montjeu he reminds me of) He'll probably get 1m2f if he settles but he wouldn't get a 1m4f on a bicycle.
 
EC1 said:
yes..imo still a lay at 4/1..and a cast iron lay at 6/4 as he was..
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You did not say it was a cast iron lay at 6/4, you gave a cast iron guarantee he would not win - these are 2 very different things.
 
Sheikh said:
I don't know how you managed to interpret it that way but let me clarify.

Most of the horses Saturday are specifically bred to run in Derbys.
Therefore Saturday will be the first time they are primed and asked for maximum effort. Coming to conclusions about this race before the race in impossible.Off the top of my head 'at first sight' officially improved 12lbs last year in the Derby (imo it was more) . A few of them this year with similar profiles are capable of that. That would be a good Derby if it happens.

How you reckon I have some kind of negative view of Frankel is beyond me. I think he will beat anything put in front of him this year over a mile (if his spark doesn't go out like the Montjeu he reminds me of) He'll probably get 1m2f if he settles but he wouldn't get a 1m4f on a bicycle.
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Good post. A lot of people don't understand it.
 
Next question, who will be earing Mrs Magnier's first colours, the all navy, Pour Moi or Recital? It could give an indication as to who Coolmore believe has the best chance of winning.
 
Circumspect said:
Next question, who will be earing Mrs Magnier's first colours, the all navy, Pour Moi or Recital? It could give an indication as to who Coolmore believe has the best chance of winning.
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There is often confusion about this. Recital will certainly carry the dark blue silks as he is a Group 1 winner, while PM is a Group 2 winner. This does not mean that Recital is preferred, however, and those that take it as a sign of such are misled.

Memphis Tennessee will probably carry Magnier’s second colours (pink).

Magnier, Tabor and Smith of course each have a set of first colours. They will continue to wear the colours they are usually seen in according to the precise ownership structure in each of them (no preference is indicated by any of the sets of first colours over another set of first colours). So Treasure Beach will carry Smith’s first colours and Seville Tabor’s first colours.

I believe there are slight differences to Magnier’s first colours that are worn in France, so Pour Mour will wear those (similar to Recital’s). In other words you won’t be able to tell very much from who wears what.
The only thing you will know from the colours is that Recital is wearing Magnier’s first colours and Memphis Tennessee the second, but this is simply by virtue of Recital being a Group 1 winner.
 
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Sheikh said:
I don't know how you managed to interpret it that way but let me clarify.

Most of the horses Saturday are specifically bred to run in Derbys.
Therefore Saturday will be the first time they are primed and asked for maximum effort. Coming to conclusions about this race before the race in impossible.Off the top of my head 'at first sight' officially improved 12lbs last year in the Derby (imo it was more) . A few of them this year with similar profiles are capable of that. That would be a good Derby if it happens.

How you reckon I have some kind of negative view of Frankel is beyond me. I think he will beat anything put in front of him this year over a mile (if his spark doesn't go out like the Montjeu he reminds me of) He'll probably get 1m2f if he settles but he wouldn't get a 1m4f on a bicycle.
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but most years runners are bred to win Derbys..each year there are always a couple with doubts about staying..there is this year..but generally the field as a whole are bred for the trip..in fact many for further...but in the good Derby years you have horses that have captured the imagination a bit..this years Derby looks a bit like a Leger to me.

why can't you come to a conclusion about the race?..you have that Frankel won't stay when his pedigree doesn't necessarily show that..so your conclusion is just as good or flawed as someone not thinking this years race is owt sparkling

i'm not seeing how this years field is bred any differently to any other years..some won't stay..some will..some will be to slow as they too stoutly bred..an average year on that front

what isn't average is that none have shown anything like form to stand above the others

like i said..i'm not one to decry a race before it starts..not my style..but this race is about as interesting as an AW G3..imo
 
unfortunatly i read this before i logged in..Hamm..change the record..go and bother someone else a bit with your digs..you show a complete lack of inner knowledge for the game..accept it.. and just post re topics you actually know something about
 
Is there something wrong with you? You said he was cast iron guaranteed not to win. Now it is he was a cast iron lay at 6/4. Which is it?

Or is it more nonsense from you such as the Derby is as interesting as an AW Group 3. Yet you can't stop posting on this thread. Surely a race that isn't interesting would not merit so many posts from you. Again, which is it?
 
EC, you are carrying on a bit mate.. And basically cussing people who have just as much right to an opinion as you.

I hope you come on here and take the stick with dignity if CH wins.
 
Guys... far be it for me to break up a good fight, but I’d suggest as amnesty in the build up to the race. There will be a lot going on in the next couple of days and it’s a bit of a distraction to watch the pair of you pick holes in the minutia of what was and what was not said… Try not to get too personal… half of us on here are dysfunctional in one way or another, after all.;)
 
SteveM said:
There is often confusion about this. Recital will certainly carry the dark blue silks as he is a Group 1 winner, while PM is a Group 2 winner. This does not mean that Recital is preferred, however, and those that take it as a sign of such are misled.

Memphis Tennessee will probably carry Magnier’s second colours (pink).

Magnier, Tabor and Smith of course each have a set of first colours. They will continue to wear the colours they are usually seen in according to the precise ownership structure in each of them (no preference is indicated by any of the sets of first colours over another set of first colours). So Treasure Beach will carry Smith’s first colours and Seville Tabor’s first colours.

I believe there are slight differences to Magnier’s first colours that are worn in France, so Pour Mour will wear those (similar to Recital’s). In other words you won’t be able to tell very much from who wears what.
The only thing you will know from the colours is that Recital is wearing Magnier’s first colours and Memphis Tennessee the second, but this is simply by virtue of Recital being a Group 1 winner.
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I'm not sure does this mean anything but the Sporting Life has Pour Moi wearing the first choice colours, Recital in pink and Memphis Tennesse in navy with the pink hat.
 
Hamm said:
I'm not sure does this mean anything but the Sporting Life has Pour Moi wearing the first choice colours, Recital in pink and Memphis Tennesse in navy with the pink hat.
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If that is the case that would probably indicate a preference for PM. It is unusual to nominate a Group 2 winner ahead of a Group 1 winner in carrying the first silks. In fact I can't think of a single prior instance of this.
 
Fwiw, I thought it would be as you described. Has to be seen as a positive for Pour Moi.

Am I the only one who sees this Derby as a potentially very very high class renewal? Very much looking forward to it.
 
The Sporting Life site has been known to get this sort of thing wrong. I noted the other day for example that it had Pour Moi's trainer as Aidan O'Brien. However with MT specifically in third colours they may have it right.

Nevertheless, I'd be surprised to see Recital in anything other than the first silks, although my own preference is for Pour Moi.
 
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