Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

Only spotted your call there now Hamm - like to see a man on fire - you seem to be having a good run of it at the moment. All your posts recently have been pretty much nailed on.
 
davidjohnson said:
I think Lingfield would make more sense. Don't really like to see horses dropping back in trip as a Derby prep.
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The Dante wouldn't really be a significant drop in trip, though, would it? Eleven down to an extended ten and it's not as if he won the Newbury race by dint of his stamina coming into play. Mind you, I'll be at the Dante so perhaps I'm biased.
 
Fair point Gus. From a selfish point of view, I'd like to see him in the Dante too. Though I'd also like the Ebor still to be run on a Wednesday and the Juddmonte on a Tuesday but they've denied me that privilege too!
 
With how unexposed 2010's winner was this time last year I think people are going OTT on just picking out lightly raced types from Sir Michael's yard. But for every Workforce you tend to get half a dozen Greek Dance's.

Will Vadamar go on faster ground?
 
You're spot on and have avoided the hype - to have Carlton House and World Domination in single figures is ludicrous.

I'm not sure about the ground - but, the positive is if he wins the Greffulhe, he definitely goes to Epsom, and has already had 3 runs. A much better chance than any of the Stoute and Cecil horses for me.
 
Frankel misses the Dante and goes next either for the SJP or the Derby.

The official handicapper doesn't have an exalted opinion of World Domination's maiden. The fourth there, Wayward Glance, beaten about seven lengths, is entered for a handicap at Chester and has been given an initial mark of just 81.
 
I think Frankel has no chance at all to turn up in the Derby. Considering the way he was ridden at Newmarket, I doubt very much Epsom was ever an option for him.
 
LBM said:
I think Frankel has no chance at all to turn up in the Derby. Considering the way he was ridden at Newmarket, I doubt very much Epsom was ever an option for him.
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From the Henry Cecil Horses thread: I think they've always known he's not a Derby Horse.

18th February 2011, 12:52 PM #42
swedish chef
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: London

From the same source as the start of this thread last year.

Cecils horses have stepped up to speed work, Frankel is fine but will be kept to a mile, Cecil's Derby horse will be World Domination and is an unraced 3yr old that he thinks the world of.
 
I've backed Native Khan at 16s for the Derby, thought he ran a cracker yesterday under the extreme circumstances given he raced closest to the pace and still managed to get third. Suspicions he might not get the trip but I think he's a fair bet at the price nonetheless.
 
got to admit i was amazed when Cecil said they might go for the Dante..what would be the point?..it would probably prove nothing as it wouldn't be a proper test if other horses avoided running against him

he must go straight for the Derby imo

It seems many are judging Frankel now as some extended sprinter..just because he was let go at Newmarket...i think if anyone thinks he would be run like that at Epsom then they are underestimating Cecil

His breeding isn't bad for the Derby..he also won a mile doing handsprings as a 2yo

it would be a mistake not to send him there imo..what would they lose?..if they just run him at a mile then that will be what he is known for..if he runs in the Derby and loses he will then go back to a mile..and still be known for being a top miler..you have nothing to lose by running him..more to gain i would have thought

it might actually have helped to settle him in future..letting him go like that..he has always wanted to go faster..well there you go..go faster..not sure he will pull so hard next time when asked to be restrained..if he remembers how knacked he must have been on Saturday:)
 
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No reason to go the Dante route - how do you keep an obviously highly strung animal like Frankel on the boil till June wihout a race?

Good to see you back Bigman!
 
On The Bridle said:
No reason to go the Dante route - how do you keep an obviously highly strung animal like Frankel on the boil till June wihout a race?

Good to see you back Bigman!
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hello OTB ;)

I think after that run..he needs a little time though..take him after racing for a gallop...one day or two then?

it just seems that if they are just going Dante to see if he stays it wouldn't answer that question..IF that is why they would run him there..which i got the impression it was

do you think he needs another race before the Derby?..that was a big effort he put in

decisions decisions ..its a tough one

I don't think he is a one dimensional point and shoot type though..i just think they made the tactic fit the race on saturday

Look at New Approach when he won the Champion..flat out gallop to run at and he just powered them into teh ground

if you had seen New Approach win the Champion Stakes BEFORE he ran in the Derby..i think many would say the same as they are about Frankel..ie..you'll never win a Derby like that etc

you fit the tactics to the race in hand
 
swedish chef said:
I'd personally like to see him mop up the G1 mile races and finish off in the Breeders Cup.
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Normally I would say the same..if its a miler then go get the races..but..this isn't an ordinary animal..he could be better than Sea The Stars..what a shame not to know if he has that capability..they have nothing to lose by running him in the Derby..it won't affect his reputation at a mile if he doesn't win there
 
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EC1 said:
Normally I would say the same..if its a miler then go get the races..but..this isn't an ordinary animal..he could be better than Sea The Stars..what a shame not to know if he has that capability..they have nothing to lose by running him in the Derby..it won't affect his reputation at a mile if he doesn't win there
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I was thinking he could be worth more at stud both sides of the Atlantic if he were to win at 10f over there, he would love the fractions they go out there and could be sensational.
 
Euronymous said:
Frankel available at 13.5 to back on Betfair now.
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The prices on Betfair are very tempting for a small flutter. Does the 2/1 (WAR) give a far reflection of the horses chances? SteveM said somewhere that he thinks the horse would be odds on if he lines up at Epson.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I've backed Native Khan at 16s for the Derby, thought he ran a cracker yesterday under the extreme circumstances given he raced closest to the pace and still managed to get third. Suspicions he might not get the trip but I think he's a fair bet at the price nonetheless.
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I've come round to this way of thinking now I read dunlop's latest comments.

You would need to have had your head turned back to front to back either of the maiden winners at single figure odds when you have a horse with serious form, and a strong likelihood of staying (the right pre-race blend of speed and probable stamina).
 
I backed World Domination at 8s (and I stand by it, despite being a maiden winner, there's very little opposition and he's now into 5/1) as well so I feel I have two strong bases covered with my two bets (both the Guineas form and in my mind, the best unexposed horse in the race).
 
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