Road to the Gold Cup 2012

Call me crazy but I'm really coming round to Weird Al as a decent ew bet at 20/1
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Not at all! I have argued his case even before the Charlie Hall. I already
have plenty on at good prices and added more today.

Don't need to draw up earlier reasoning but recent developments come into play. Until this last round of shortening by the bookies Weirdy was one of the few horses in the field trading lower on Betfair than was available from the books and had been for some time. Again looking at Betfair, judging by the Betfair price being significantly higher than books it looks likely that the field will be a maximum of 9/10. Not such big field, therefore obviously a better chance of a place and indeed less reason for the concern of some that he doesn't act in big fields.

I applaud McCain's decision to hold him back for the race and think that new trainer and new jockey at the start of the season were highly benefial to his chances. With 20/1 still available, 1/4 odds, that gives you 5/1 a place. I don't ignore the win chance - 20/1 is probably appropriate- but particularly if Grand Crus goes in the RSA, even current odds underestimate his chance of a place, imo.
Firmish ground would be a big concern.
 
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A moderately positive bulletin from connections has tempted me into the 44 available about Diamond Harry. If he gets to the tape, he'll be half the price.
 
Ardross said:
I am always very suspicious when jockeys who say their horses are idling when they look to be exactly the opposite .
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The BHA Handicapper, Phil Smith, is also of the opinion that Long Run was dossing and has adjusted his rating accordingly.
 
redhead said:
The BHA Handicapper, Phil Smith, is also of the opinion that Long Run was dossing and has adjusted his rating accordingly.
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How ridiculous is that ? I thought ratings were meant to be assessed on form not the hunches of handicappers.
 
Kauto said:
Think people are forgetting but for arguably the best chaser of all time Long Run would have won both races this year comfortably adding another King George and he would never be the price he is now. IF they have ironed out the jumping kinks with these extra sessions then surely he is a moral even conceding the weight.
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Kauto I was touting your namesake as the best chaser for over 40 years way back in 2007 but the greatest of all time? You cannot be serious.

More than once Kauto has been almost beaten early season, he's lost 2 Gold Cups etc etc. Never once since the day Arkle first beat Mill House did anything get within 50 yds of Arkle off level weights. It took 35lbs and a Gold Cup class horse to lower his colours by only 1/2 length in the 1966 Hennessy. The 3rd horse went on to win the Gold Cup when Arkle was prematuraely retired. Pat Taffe confessed later he gave him a horlicks of a ride or he would have won that race too.

Gallagher Gold Cup in which he beat Mill House who many would rate as good as Kauto Star, giving him 16lb and shattering the course record by 17 seconds leaving Mill House 23 lengths in his wake says it all. Do you now how far a horse can travel in 16 seconds? Further than any distance Kauto has ever won by that's how far.

There is no arguably Kauto is simply not in the same class as the great horse and perhaps nothing ever will be.

Doesn't take a genius to look back at the way Arkle cruised up the hill like a greyhound coming out the traps in his Gold Cups to realise just how special he was.

Sorry to burst your bubble Kauto but there simply was no camprison and Arkle deserved every ounce of his 212 rating believe me.

To be mentioned in the same breath as Arkle is the highest compliment you could pay any chaser and kauto certainly deserves every bit of that honour. He is one brilliant racehorse.


Funny thing is in my eyes at least, the best Novice I have seen in 50 years of racing has suddenly appeared out of the blue. This Sprinter Sacre is so like Arkle was as a youth it's frightening. Those leaps he puts in instantly reminded me of the sort of jumps Arkle used to come up with where he could gain a length and sometimes 2 lengths in the air on any horse near him. He even travels like he did. Sprinter Sacre is one scary horse and has the potential to become something way out of the ordinary the likes of which most of us are ever likely to see. However it is only potentialat this time and as much as he looks te part these bubbles can be burst very easily,,,We live in hope.
 
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There are arguments for and against but there can never be a definitive conclusion. Arkle was more superior over his rivals than Kauto Star has been but does that owe more to the ability of the horse in question or the opposition?

Edit: Rhetorical question I should add.
 
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So Tanlic....according to you, Kauto Star - with all that he has achieved - can't be mentioned in the same breath as Arkle....but a thrice-raced novice can?

Away and boil yer heid, ye erse. :D
 
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Zenyatta said:
There are arguments for and against but there can never be a definitive conclusion. Arkle was more superior over his rivals than Kauto Star has been but does that owe more to the ability of the horse in question or the opposition?

Edit: Rhetorical question I should add.
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There were some fantastic chasers around in Arkle's time. Stalbridge Collonist, What A Myth, Flyingbolt, Flying Wild, Frenchman's Cove, Basnett, Rondetto, Bonne Notte, Pas Suel, Dunkirk and that's without even having to think about it or look up any records. oops forgot Mill House.

I saw almost all of Arkle's races when he ran on TV the entire country came to a halt... even my old mum knew who he was and sent him a Xmas card and she hardly watched a horse race in her life

John Lennon once innocently said the Beatles were more famous than Jesus well Arkle was more famous than the Beatles round our streets.

You really had to be there to appreciate just how good he was.

I think it can be summed up by one very special man's opinion.

Fulke Walwyn was an amzing man. He trained 4 Gold Cup winner 7 Hennessy winerss 7 Whitbread winners 2 Champion Hurdle Winners 3 King George winners and threw in a Grand national just for the hell of it.

Fulke also trained Mill House and said of him there wasn't a horse on the planet that could live with him. The horse was a complete monster and the man's pride and joy.

He had waited all his life to have such an animal and could not believe after all the brilliant horses that had gone through his hands the best of them and the apple of his eye was brushed aside like a second rate point to pointer by this Irish phenomenon. The man was devestated.

To him it must have been like owning Frankel and having the world at your feet then suddenly something beats you by 10 lengths on the bridle.
 
Cannot see any betting angle in this years Gold Cup. Probably being a bit sniffy here but the front two have their holes and the rest are much of a muchness..

I would very much like to see Kauto win though
 
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Tanlic said:
Fulke also trained Mill House and said of him there wasn't a horse on the planet that could live with him. The horse was a complete monster and the man's pride and joy.

He had waited all his life to have such an animal and could not believe after all the brilliant horses that had gone through his hands the best of them and the apple of his eye was brushed aside like a second rate point to pointer by this Irish phenomenon. The man was devestated.

To him it must have been like owning Frankel and having the world at your feet then suddenly something beats you by 10 lengths on the bridle.
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Mill House's owner's nephew, of course, is training now.
 
redhead said:
The BHA Handicapper, Phil Smith, is also of the opinion that Long Run was dossing and has adjusted his rating accordingly.
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Horses that 'doss' in front generally do it regularly, and nothing in his form suggests that to be the case.
They said much the same about Frankel after a similar finish in the SJP, but it didn't stop him skipping clear in both his subsequent races.
 
On The Bridle said:
Cannot see any betting angle in this years Gold Cup. Probably being a bit sniffy here but the front two have their holes and the rest are much of a muchness..

I would very much like to see Kauto win though
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Join the Club.

I've thought about Synchronised and I do like Weird Al I thought he looked awesome in the Charlie Hall but I have paid very little attention to what the plans are for them.

You just assume it's going to be a two horse race but can't be confident in either.

I will back Kauto I always do but do I think he'll win?..........if he does can I say I knew he would, if he doesn't can I say I told you so? :lol:
 
For the record it ought to be recorded here that Kauto might not make it, since this thread hasn't been touched for a while.

As much as I would love to see him take part it's debatable whether he was the main threat to the favourite, so my position on the race hasn't changed.
 
Just wondering if I sent a card addressed to kauto Star UK would it get to destination ? On The other hand Arkle never met two milers over two miles. He didnt have to and no one had heard of Tingle Creek at that stage!
 
All shortening now to stupid prices.....Grands Crus 6/1 WTF??:ninja:

Race is taking the shape of the Arkle....still 26 other classics to wade into:)
 
Yeah skysports news around half hour go.said rumours circulating over the participation of long run.I had read on twitter earlier that markets supended?...it also said thats why it suspended on ss news
 
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