Road to the Gold Cup 2012

Long Run won the race for SWC - he is so untidy when under pressure. Great jump at the last won it for him. Jumping seemed a lot better but wasn't put under any real pressure during the race at the fences. Still think Kauto will have the better of him at Cheltenham if tactics are right.
 
Ardross said:
A pointless argument - but at Kauto's Tingle Creek strolling best - far from sure that would be the case . Azertyuiop got close to Moscow . Kauto was a better two miler at his peak than that horse.

The problem Kauto for Long Run is he suffering from running his heart out trying to get so close to Kauto Star ?
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Kauto's two Tingle Creek's aren't worth a carrot form-wise. Azertyuiop is well clear of him on 2m form - even in defeat behind Moscow.
 
Very nice performance from Long Run. They came to do what they did giving weight to seasoned chasers. Any weakness in his price for the Gold Cup should be exploited.
 
Ardross said:
A pointless argument - but at Kauto's Tingle Creek strolling best - far from sure that would be the case . Azertyuiop got close to Moscow . Kauto was a better two miler at his peak than that horse.

The problem Kauto for Long Run is he suffering from running his heart out trying to get so close to Kauto Star ?
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A fairly pointless argument I'd agree. Kauto, Moscow and Azertyuiop are/were all great horses at two miles, three of the best.

The exciting thing is that we may have seen a novice [Sprinter Sacre] potentially good enough to join them today, one that has the Arkle, the Tingle Creek and (in 2013) the Champion Chase at his mercy.
 
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G-G said:
Long Run won the race for SWC - he is so untidy when under pressure. Great jump at the last won it for him. Jumping seemed a lot better but wasn't put under any real pressure during the race at the fences. Still think Kauto will have the better of him at Cheltenham if tactics are right.
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SWC will get a riding lesson in this year's GC....will ultimately cost Long Run the race as he did the King George.
 
trefflich said:
SWC will get a riding lesson in this year's GC....will ultimately cost Long Run the race as he did the King George.
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What do you reckon ? Go hard on the first circuit to put Long Run's jumping under pressure - take a breather and get Kauto dictating - leave him for dead down the hill and save something for the hill ? :)
 
Ardross said:
What do you reckon ? Go hard on the first circuit to put Long Run's jumping under pressure - take a breather and get Kauto dictating - leave him for dead down the hill and save something for the hill ? :)
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With Midnight Chase in the field, I wouldn't want to see Kauto get into a dual for the lead - I reckon Ruby will let MC do the job for him and sit handy in second, giving Kauto enough space at each fence to get into a good rhythm, jumping-wise. For me that's been one of the key aspects of his two wins this season - I don't think it's making the running per se that has made the difference, more that Kauto has had a 100% clear sight of his fences early on to allow him to get into that flowing, economical rhythm.
 
I think neither Long Run or Kauto will win the Gold Cup. All I know is SWC will be shown up, he cannot get the horse into a nice rhythm and jump fence to fence which is essentially what you need in these long distance chases.
 
trefflich said:
I think neither Long Run or Kauto will win the Gold Cup. All I know is SWC will be shown up, he cannot get the horse into a nice rhythm and jump fence to fence which is essentially what you need in these long distance chases.
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Apart from last year in the King George and Gold Cup...

I desperately want Kauto to win, because he's far and away my favourite horse and the best chaser of my lifetime, and the fact that he has regained some of the sparkle he lacked last season is fantastic and gives me hope that everything might just fall right for him, BUT that doesn't mean I downplay what SWC and Long Run achieved last season. In fact, my head still thinks that Long Run is the likeliest winner (me and many other people, hence why he's favourite!) as, IMO, on past GC form it's more likely that it will be Kauto who makes the jolting mistake and he can't afford to do that against a horse of Long Run's calibre.

If there has been a slight decline in Long Run this season (as opposed to Kauto having regained X-lbs' worth of form against last year - and I'm not convinced there necessarily has been, so I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate here), then maybe it's more likely to be because he is conforming to the stereotype of the French chaser that we were used to before Kauto broke the mould - dazzingly brilliant when young, but declines at a younger age too.
 
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Agree with the above Cruella re: French horses going backwards earlier. Long Run has a lot of high class mileage on the clock for one so young. SWC is not the man for me and never will be, but if the Waley Cohens can live with the 'what ifs?' then so can all of us.
 
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It did cross my mind to wonder if Barry G's riding instructions might have been along the lines of: "If you can't actually fall off, can you at least come there full of running at the last, get almost upsides Long Run, then take a completely unncessary pull that loses you several lengths, move Burton Port out to the right after the last before running on and not quite getting there. That might shut up some of the "if only Geraghty were on Long Run" contingent."
 
I wasn't especially impressed with Long Run today, He should have beaten a rusty Burton Port by further. He will need a much better performance to retain his title.

Great to see Burton Port back by the way.
 
LUKE said:
In fairness BJG was riding a horse coming off an absence with a major target in 4 weeks time.
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thinly veiled..he saw he was going to beat stable star and took a pull..losing about 3 lengths in process

sure winner today..making Long Run the worst value festival bet

he wins no GC imo
 
RP reports that Kauto Star has been markedly shortened up generally now between 3s and 7-2 from 4 . Ladbrokes now ,however, go 5-2 the pair !
 
LUKE said:
In fairness BJG was riding a horse coming off an absence with a major target in 4 weeks time.
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Given his ownership, his major target may well be in 8 weeks time, and he's run a blinding trial. 16/1 looks a gift from the gods, at this juncture.
Long Run's jumping still fails to impress, and it'll be put under much more pressure at Cheltenham than it was at any stage today.
 
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In an interview after Long Run's race, Robert Waley-Cohen said that SWC had told him that Long Run was idling in the closing stages - here and in the Gold Cup last year.

Haven't gone through the Gold Cup form yet, so will reserve judgment for now, but currently am in agreement with a lot of Ardross's comments.
 
I am always very suspicious when jockeys who say their horses are idling when they look to be exactly the opposite .
 
Long run didnt make serious mistakes but still didnt jump well for me.Its not enough to say thats the "best hes jumped this season" because hes simply a race altering blunder waiting to happen or even more likely, a succession of momentum losing errors

I really dont fancy him at all for the GC this time around
 
I'm not a huge Long Run fan but the trouble is when you narrow the Gold Cup field down to the realistic contenders he still has a massive chance of outstaying everyone up the hill again. Kauto at 12 in a strongly run 3m2f GC must be a doubt to truely see it out though it would be one of the gretest days in sport if he could :)

Call me crazy but I'm really coming round to Weird Al as a decent ew bet at 20/1. He is 3rd best on RPR and goes incredibly well fresh. McCain is getting better and better as a trainer and has proven he can ready one for the biggest stages. The horse is 2 from 3 at the course and has only had 10 lifetime starts so a little more improvement (which is certainly required) is not totally out of the question.

Think I'll back him now then look to add Long Run on the day if the sentimental money comes for Kauto. 20 days to go :D:cool:
 
I have been a fan of Wierd Al for the Gold Cup for a while now but sadly everybody else is starting to come to the same conclusion. I haven't backed him yet but might consider it nearer the time if the price was right. I'm not sure he can beat the front two but he must have a fair shot at beating the rest.
 
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