Road to the RYANAIR CHASE

To be honest I'm half hoping al ferof does run in the gold cup. I'm on champion court at 20s zoned sizing Europe at 14s and if cue card, first leuitenant, al ferof and co don't turn up they'll be fav..
 
Euronymous said:
Yes. I can't see Unioniste going for the Ryanair at least.
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he'd be a million. absolute slowboat.

re : al ferof. i've been tempted to back him for the gold cup at 20-25s. have resisted though as there's a fair chance he goes this route with nicholls having silvi conti. just can't be sure and he'd still be a decent price on the day if he went that way.

i do think on decent ground he'd be a nice outside bet. staying on ok at kempton and cheltenham would bring about a much improved performance i feel. he loves it there.

unsure on ryanair really but it could be a weak renewal looking at it.
 
Nicholls said after the Lexus that Unioniste was proven to be not yet good enough to win a gold cup so it's highly unlikely he'll run in it.

Yes he was quoted as saying the entry was in case it came up bottomless but IMO that is as good as saying "Al Ferof is our Gold Cup horse but he isn't suited to heavy ground - and he'd be a HIGHLY doubtful stayer on it - and while Unioniste isn't quite ready, he won't get taken off his feet on that ground and is as suitable a horse as we have"

And by "we" I mean Hales and Nicholls, as surely if it was bottomless then Tidal Bay would be the best Ditcheat hope but Hales has been near obsessed with winning it and with two such decent horses in his ownership he most likely wouldn't want to be empty handed.
 
Great point Wilson I like your thinking .. I'm not touching al ferof for any race the GC is between bobs worth and silviano and as neither are running again till March there price will be the same if not bigger (with the offers the books always have) on the day. It's the Ryanair where the value is cos cue card is. 90% gold cup FL is 75% gold cup and al ferof 50% gold cup. No flemenstar no simonsig it could be a 7 runner field!!
 
ajax trees down said:
Great point Wilson I like your thinking .. I'm not touching al ferof for any race the GC is between bobs worth and silviano and as neither are running again till March there price will be the same if not bigger (with the offers the books always have) on the day. It's the Ryanair where the value is cos cue card is. 90% gold cup FL is 75% gold cup and al ferof 50% gold cup. No flemenstar no simonsig it could be a 7 runner field!!
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Agreed. If Nicholls said that then the Rynair is a no brainer.
 
I don't understand all the talk about Unioniste. He was exposed as below the best novices last year and was once again behind Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend in the Lexus. Surely a handicap would be a more realistic target than the Gold Cup.
 
I'd be slightly concerned about backing anything on the assumption that the race cuts up dramatically because if that does turn out to be the case then it could be that trainers start to feel the same and end up targeting their novices at it. Nicholls for example had already mentioned giving his horses Champion Chase entries - presumably in case Sprinter Sacre does not turn up.

It may turn out to be unlikely but the Ryanair, even after the upgrade to the Jewson, is still worth nearly 3 times as much and in the absence of Cue Card, First Lieutenant, Al Ferof et al, it could be argued that it would take less winning than what is currently looking a competitive novice event, especially if Mullins stands by his thoughts of stepping Champagne Fever, Felix Yonger or even both up in trip.
 
thehorsesmouth said:
I don't understand all the talk about Unioniste. He was exposed as below the best novices last year and was once again behind Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend in the Lexus. Surely a handicap would be a more realistic target than the Gold Cup.
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Agree.

Not a gold cup horse.
 
I don't think unioniste will get to within 30l of the gold cup winner but he could be key to where al ferof goes, the Ryanair market is based around him if AF turns up he'll be fav if CC and FL don't (which I'm almost sure they won't). There's no dynaste and captain Conan is tripless Bailey green could go to the queen mother.. Who's left?
 
Tizzard piece in last night's RP stating that Theatre Guide will be given a GC entry should he perform well in the Argento, which would pave the way for Cue Card to return to the Ryanair.

He also said Cue Card won't be getting a Champion Chase entry, regardless of the Sprinter Sacre situation.

Market suspended but 6.4 available on Betfair just recently, which would easily be the bet of the meeting should he turn up in the 2m 5f race.
 
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Cue Card struggled at Exeter so i imagine that is why they think 2m is too short nowadays.
 
Agree 2m would be on the short side, and have long thought that expecting him to run in the Gold Cup is near as daft as expecting him to win it.
 
Ardross said:
Cue Card struggled at Exeter so i imagine that is why they think 2m is too short nowadays.
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"Struggled" doesn't quite tell the whole story though, Ardoss.

Cue Cardwas giving 17lbs and more to decent handicap/Grade 3 horses, from the highest-rating in handicap since Denman's second Hennessy. Take Sacre out of the QMCC, and that Exeter form is probably sufficient to win the race - especially so when you consider how well Cue Card acts round Cheltenham.
 
Grasshopper said:
"Struggled" doesn't quite tell the whole story though, Ardoss.

Cue Cardwas giving 17lbs and more to decent handicap/Grade 3 horses, from the highest-rating in handicap since Denman's second Hennessy. Take Sacre out of the QMCC, and that Exeter form is probably sufficient to win the race - especially so when you consider how well Cue Card acts round Cheltenham.
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I agree, exeter form even not fully fit is enough to win the champion chase if sprinter Sacre is not running.
 
Grasshopper said:
"Struggled" doesn't quite tell the whole story though, Ardoss.

Cue Cardwas giving 17lbs and more to decent handicap/Grade 3 horses, from the highest-rating in handicap since Denman's second Hennessy. Take Sacre out of the QMCC, and that Exeter form is probably sufficient to win the race - especially so when you consider how well Cue Card acts round Cheltenham.
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Wasn't that the race where Colin Tizzard remarked that "he was nearly flat out for most of the way?
However you dress it up, he'd have to go a deal quicker, and against better horses, than he managed that day.
 
Who would these better horse's be, reet?

SDG? Maybe, though slight questions around whether track would suit him.....and it certainly suits him less well than it would CC.

Apart from SDG, who else is there to threaten him? He is a country-mile clear on ratings, acts on the track, and Tizzard's comments need to be taken with a pinch of salt, imo (like most trainer comments).
 
Those ratings were achieved over further though, Grass.
He was rated 157 after his last 2m run; there are any number in the race rated similar or higher.
 
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He would have run to a significantly higher mark than 157 in the Haldon just three months ago, reet.
 
Cue Card would comfortably win either the Ryanair or the Queen Mother sans Sprinter Sacre.

In fact, given the doubts surrounding SS, I wouldn't want to be taking too short a price about him if he does get to Cheltenham should Cue Card line up in the race.
 
Big fan of Cue Card,IMO he'd place in the QMCC,he won't get home in the Gold cup and he'll absolutely sh@ home in the Ryanair.He's an even money shot come the day for this.Unfortunately it will be Gold Cup for Cue Card.
 
I'm hoping Cue Card lines up here, as he'd be one of the bankers of the week.
Curveball horse for a place in this, what about Hunt Ball?
 
Grasshopper said:
He would have run to a significantly higher mark than 157 in the Haldon just three months ago, reet.
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That wasn't 2m, nor was it run at anything like the pace you'd expect in a QMC. As it was, he floundered when the tap was turned on, against horses who are none too quick themselves. He won't have that luxury, should he take the shorter option.
He's a bloody good horse at the right distance, but he's shown - at both 2m & 3 - that he has his limitations, and he's endorsed that view plenty of times over both trips.
 
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