Road to the Stayers Hurdle

As I don't intend to back Big Bucks at odds on (who is still the likeliest winner), I've had to take the 3s on Grands Crus. I've backed this up with some speculative 12/1 NRNB on Punchestowns with Ladbrokes.
 
Think someone asked about Fiveforthree a while back

"I'm going to enter him in one or two other races, but if the ground is very heavy I might leave him at home and just bring him to Cheltenham I think," Mullins told At The Races.
"The weather is so bad and I don't particularly want to run him on really heavy ground, but you never know.
"I'll just keep looking at races and take each day as it comes, but he's in good form at home. If the right race comes up, we might just take a chance."
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Goes to the stayers now, was very fond of this one a few years back, was very dissappointed to see him missing for so long.
 
So many handy races could be won with Fiveforthree but connections have eyes for one prize. He would have a genuine longshot chance in the Stayers but should not be cut on the back of todays run.
 
The Stayers could turn out to be one of the races of the meeting if we get horses like Fiveforthree, Punchestowns and Mikael D'Haguenet all showing up on the day. Early this year it looked like a procession.
 
Aragorn said:
The Stayers could turn out to be one of the races of the meeting if we get horses like Fiveforthree, Punchestowns and Mikael D'Haguenet all showing up on the day. Early this year it looked like a procession.
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The last time I had as much interest in the race was when Murtagh rode Golden Cross. Mikael D'Haguenet and Punchestown will not run in my opinion.
 
After looking at the replay of his most recent performance, I’ve taken the Ladbroke 10/1 NRNB on Mourad (some firms are going shorter all-in) for the World Hurdle this morning.
 
Connections likely reason they have little chance of beating Hurricane Fly over a stiff 2m, and will roll the dice in the Stayers instead. This does not mean that Solwhit is suddenly rank over 2m - only that connections are realists.

The quality of the crackpot theorising and straw-men-building on here always increases as the Festival draws closer.
 
Grasshopper said:
Connections likely reason they have little chance of beating Hurricane Fly over a stiff 2m, and will roll the dice in the Stayers instead. This does not mean that Solwhit is suddenly rank over 2m - only that connections are realists.

The quality of the crackpot theorising and straw-men-building on here always increases as the Festival draws closer.
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but thats like saying Binocular may as well run in the stayers as he will not pass Peddlers Cross:)..all those that Menorah has beat may as well run in the stayers as well.

there is nothing crackpot about reading what a trainer is telling you by how he places his horses..imo

putting an apparent 2 miler right up to 3 miles..tells you he has lost some speed

i can't buy this missing a race just because of one horse...that could be construed as crackpot:)
 
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I thought connections had always sated he would miss the Champion this year. The only turnaround is that he may not be aimed at the Stayers race.
 
Gearoid said:
I thought connections had always sated he would miss the Champion this year. The only turnaround is that he may not be aimed at the Stayers race.
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which means that for the last 8+ months - before he ran against HF they were aiming at the Stayers..which means they knew he hadn't the speed for a CH at that point

maybe they had hoped to mop up a few soft 2 milers but hadn't reckoned on HF turning up each time
 
It's the best decision for the horse - he needs soft/heavy to be seen at his best over 2m and his best chance of copping a Grade 1 will still remain the Aintree Hurdle IMO, he'll never beat a fully (or even 90%) fit Hurricane Fly and coming to the UK means that most of the time he won't get his conditions.

The second placed prize money behind the Hurricane isn't bad but regarding Cheltenham he'd have a better chance in the longer race than the Champion.
 
Wrong.

The only spring target connections really give a toss about is the Aintree Hurdle - everything else is an afterthought.

Edit: This post was directed at EC1 - just to avoid any confusion, Irish!
 
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