Road to the Stayers Hurdle

Irish Stamp said:
It would also tell you that Solwhit needs soft/heavy ground to be seen at his best over the shorter trip.
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yes i agree..but a soft ground 2 miles doesn't equate to 3 miles on better ground..the difference in stamina sap between slow ground 2 and good ground 2 miles is way less than shoving that horse up to 3 miles..and a stiff 3 miles at that

to run him in the stayers tells you a lot about how he is viewed and has been viewed for a long time..

so beating him over 2 miles these days is easier than it was last season for instance
 
Grasshopper said:
Wrong.

The only spring target connections really give a toss about is the Aintree Hurdle - everything else is an afterthought.

Edit: This post was directed at EC1 - just to avoid any confusion, Irish!
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if Cheltenham is such an afterthought..the why run him at all there?

I think Irish knew it was aimed at me somehow..;)

its not long ago that i was told if you had a contender for the CH you should run him..now its seems its quite logical to miss out the CH and aim at other targets

very conflicting messages i'm getting
 
EC1 said:
but thats like saying Binocular may as well run in the stayers as he will not pass Peddlers Cross:)..all those that Menorah has beat may as well run in the stayers as well.
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It's nothing of the sort. Binocular and Peddlars Cross have met once. Solwhit has been beaten four times on the bounce by Hurricane Fly and the only race between the pair he has won, was when HF was hqving his first run out of novice company. Solwhit has been beaten by increasing distances a s with increased authority in each of the four races that followed. That's why connections (rightly)concede they can't beat HF, let alone Binocular, and will try their luck at 3m - a trip that might just be in his range on quicker ground.

There is no comparison whatsoever between the Solwhit/Hurricane Fly scenario and those examples you Put forward, and well you know it.
 
EC1 said:
if Cheltenham is such an afterthought..the why run him at all there?

I think Irish knew it was aimed at me somehow..;)

its not long ago that i was told if you had a contender for the CH you should run him..now its seems its quite logical to miss out the CH and aim at other targets

very conflicting messages i'm getting
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Solwhit clearly ISN'T a contender because he can't finish in front of Hurricane Fly - THAT'S the difference
 
Grasshopper said:
It's nothing of the sort. Binocular and Peddlars Cross have met once. Solwhit has been beaten four times on the bounce by Hurricane Fly and the only race between the pair he has won, was when HF was hqving his first run out of novice company. Solwhit has been beaten by increasing distances a s with increased authority in each of the four races that followed. That's why connections (rightly)concede they can't beat HF, let alone Binocular, and will try their luck at 3m - a trip that might just be in his range on quicker ground.

There is no comparison whatsoever between the Solwhit/Hurricane Fly scenario and those examples you Put forward, and well you know it.
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I see what you are saying re Peddlers

what about all the horses Menorah has beat..are they wasting their time turning up as well though

if they think 3 miles is within his range..then he has had little chance at 2 miles this year has he?..particularly in some of the slow run ones..no wonder he couldn't quicken at the end

it explains that anyway
 
Grasshopper said:
Solwhit clearly ISN'T a contender because he can't finish in front of Hurricane Fly - THAT'S the difference
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he could still be a contender for a place though..he's only 2 lengths behind HF..who ..many here think will win the CH

does that mean that they don't think HF is a contender either I wonder?

I mean..if your horse has finished 2 lengths behind what you consider as being the best hurdler..then surely you would run yours hoping for a place..or even a win if HF didn't run up to form..surely you can't duck a race just because of one horse
 
None of the horses Menorah beat are exoected to turn up anyway. Silviniaco has been scratched and Cue Card heads to the Supreme. I don't know what point you're trying to make anyway - the exact same applies to Menorah and his opponents as does to Binocular/Peddlars. There is CONCLUSIVE and pretty-much IRREFUTABLE evidence that Solwhit can't beat Hurricane Fly over 2m - regardless of ground or track conformation. It is THIS which has determined his switch towards the Stayers and nothing else.

Let me know if I'm repeating myself.
 
EC1 said:
he could still be a contender for a place though..he's only 2 lengths behind HF..who ..many here think will win the CH

does that mean that they don't think HF is a contender either I wonder?

I mean..if your horse has finished 2 lengths behind what you consider as being the best hurdler..then surely you would run yours hoping for a place..or even a win if HF didn't run up to form..surely you can't duck a race just because of one horse
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They clearly know and appreciate that HF has another stone up his sleeve. ;)

They're not swerving one horse - they're swerving two, because he probably can't beat an on-song Binocular either.
 
Grasshopper said:
None of the horses Menorah beat are exoected to turn up anyway. Silviniaco has been scratched and Cue Card heads to the Supreme. I don't know what point you're trying to make anyway - the exact same applies to Menorah and his opponents as does to Binocular/Peddlars. There is CONCLUSIVE and pretty-much IRREFUTABLE evidence that Solwhit can't beat Hurricane Fly over 2m - regardless of ground or track conformation. It is THIS which has determined his switch towards the Stayers and nothing else.

Let me know if I'm repeating myself.
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but they haven't switched according to Gearoid..they always intended missing the CH

i don't agree that connections would duck a realistic chance of placing in the CH just because of one horse

if as you say..Solwhit is clearly NOT a CH contender..and has never been a CH contender this season according to his trainers plans..then beating him 2 lengths over 2 miles is nothing special ..we do agree on that anyway I would imagine
 
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Grasshopper said:
They clearly know and appreciate that HF has another stone up his sleeve. ;)

They're not swerving one horse - they're swerving two, because he probably can't beat an on-song Binocular either.
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he must keep that stone well hidden..he was flat out at the end of the last meeting between them and wasn't getting away from the "slow" Solwhit

one thing is for sure..with Binocular's in and out ways..if he had beat a horse of mine 10 times..I'd still be taking him on a CH:)
 
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EC1 said:
he must keep that stone well hidden..he was flat out at the end of the last meeting between them and wasn't getting away from the "slow" Solwhit

one thing is for sure..with Binocular's in and out ways..if he had beat a horse of mine 10 times..I'd still be taking him on a CH:)
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"Flat out" my hole.
 
Sowlhit was never going to run in the Champion. He was never a contender for it. As Grasshopper said it was always Aintree.
 
Zaynar will run in the World Hurdle and they are expecting a big show. He is preferred to Punchestowns who will now miss Cheltenham.
 
Ladbrokes are going 5/4 against (NRNB) Big Bucks (bigger than others all-in). I’ve had to succumb to that (I wasn’t going for him at odds on) even though I’ve also backed Grands Crus and Mourad (money back on Long Run and Punchestowns, also previously backed).
It’s weighted so that I’m covered if Big Bucks wins and win if either of the other two win. I haven’t decided who to plump for hook, line and sinker just yet.
 
Goes to Aintree before going chasing next season. Anyone want to start a Road to the Arkle 2012 thread?
 
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