Road to the Stayers Hurdle

I was pretty pleased with myself getting 11/1 TH. Now I'm pissed off. Seriously, I'm on at prices all the way down to 9/2 though most of the lower prices are in multiples done in December.
 
While I see Thyme Hill as a decent enough stayer, to me only a repeat of the heart issue beats Paisley Park.

I don't see Thyme Hill as having the late pace to beat PP regardless of how the race is run. I'm struggling to find circumstances that will lead to a crawl/jog-and-sprint scenario so it will be at least reasonably strongly to very strongly run and either way PP will just pick them up and run away from them. TH has just gone up to 162, making him about 2lbs/3L better than Lisnagar Oscar. Allowing even for three or four pounds' improvement (I'm not convinced) between now and March, he would still have plenty to find with PP [on my ratings] being a 172+ horse.

The only way PP doesn't win the stayers' is if his heart issue recurs.
 
Desert Orchid said:
While I see Thyme Hill as a decent enough stayer, to me only a repeat of the heart issue beats Paisley Park.

I don't see Thyme Hill as having the late pace to beat PP regardless of how the race is run. I'm struggling to find circumstances that will lead to a crawl/jog-and-sprint scenario so it will be at least reasonably strongly to very strongly run and either way PP will just pick them up and run away from them. TH has just gone up to 162, making him about 2lbs/3L better than Lisnagar Oscar. Allowing even for three or four pounds' improvement (I'm not convinced) between now and March, he would still have plenty to find with PP [on my ratings] being a 172+ horse.

The only way PP doesn't win the stayers' is if his heart issue recurs.
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Or him and Thyme Hill run each other into the ground beforehand and Sire De Berlais travels past them after the last.

I’ll be backing Fury Road to beat Thyme Hill as well if there is a market for it.
 
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Two sound and sensible arguments above. However Thyme Hill is definitely on the up and will be fresh. My only concern is the jockey who has been a reason to increase stakes in the past.
 
Desert Orchid said:
While I see Thyme Hill as a decent enough stayer, to me only a repeat of the heart issue beats Paisley Park.

I don't see Thyme Hill as having the late pace to beat PP regardless of how the race is run. I'm struggling to find circumstances that will lead to a crawl/jog-and-sprint scenario so it will be at least reasonably strongly to very strongly run and either way PP will just pick them up and run away from them. TH has just gone up to 162, making him about 2lbs/3L better than Lisnagar Oscar. Allowing even for three or four pounds' improvement (I'm not convinced) between now and March, he would still have plenty to find with PP [on my ratings] being a 172+ horse.

The only way PP doesn't win the stayers' is if his heart issue recurs.
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See I disagree, I think TH does have more pace so if isn't a mad pace, I'd fancy him to beat him.
 
That's one of the best things about this forum. There's room for respectful disagreement.

Thyme Hill didn't have the pace to beat the three in front of him in the Albert Bartlett. Sure he was ridden a bit wide throughout and met slight trouble in running here and there, especially in the final couple of furlongs but he'll have the same clown on board all season barring injury or perhaps Hobbs suddenly coming up with an unexpected new contender, which doesn't seem likely. Thyme Hill got first run on PP the other day and couldn't hold him off. PP ran the fastest closing split of any hurdles race on the day... in a three-mile race.

Paisley Park's pre-heart-problem form is at least 7lbs better than TH's best.

I'm more scared of SDB, to be honest.
 
I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Thyme Hill myself.

He’s won 1.5L at Ascot getting 3lbs, and is now betean a neck at level weights, with PP all-out to do so. There’s already very little between them, and any further improvement from TH (including tactical acuity from the jockey), will make things very interesting.

For my money, TH’s form is already demonstrably better than anything SDB has to offer, and 9/2 is a perfectly fair price for the Stayers.
 
Cant really agree Nick, I would say Thyme hill was the one all out and if the race was a 50 yards further PP would have won by a couple of lengths. I also believe both horses were given B rated rides. Apart from a small bet on SDB I am not really involved in the race financially but I would favour PP at present.
 
Grasshopper said:
I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Thyme Hill myself.

He’s won 1.5L at Ascot getting 3lbs, and is now beaten a neck at level weights, with PP all-out to do so. There’s already very little between them, and any further improvement from TH (including tactical acuity from the jockey), will make things very interesting.

For my money, TH’s form is already demonstrably better than anything SDB has to offer, and 9/2 is a perfectly fair price for the Stayers.
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I thought the Ascot race was slowly ridden, and personally, I think Mcfabulous who was the least experienced (3 mile) and still a raw bull, was most inconvenienced in that race... He runs in the Cleeve next, given a better pace and delivered later, I make him my best bet over the holiday.
 
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frontrunner said:
Cant really agree Nick, I would say Thyme hill was the one all out and if the race was a 50 yards further PP would have won by a couple of lengths. I also believe both horses were given B rated rides. Apart from a small bet on SDB I am not really involved in the race financially but I would favour PP at present.
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Ifs and buts, Brian. If the King george was 2 yards shorter, Vautour would have won, know what I mean.

The point I was making was that TH has improved again, and with so few miles on the clock (and a better ride from the pilot - hardly guaranteed given it’s RJ we’re talking about), there’s still possibly more to come......and I don’t think we can say that about PP.

Thyme will tell - arf arf.
 
Maxbet said:
I thought the Ascot race was slowly ridden, and personally, I think Mcfabulous who was the least experienced (3 mile) and still a raw bull, was most inconvenienced in that race... He runs in the Cleeve next, given a better pace and delivered later, I make him my best bet over the holiday.
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McFabulous was running in his sixth hurdle race at Newbury, Max, and he had the benefit of a previous run. It was Thyme Hill’s fifth outing over hurdles, and his first of the season.

Like Brian, I thought he was a non-stayer myself.

Edit: I note the addition of the “3-mile” qualifier. Not sure it makes a heap of a difference, tbh.
 
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frontrunner said:
Cant really agree Nick, I would say Thyme hill was the one all out and if the race was a 50 yards further PP would have won by a couple of lengths. I also believe both horses were given B rated rides. Apart from a small bet on SDB I am not really involved in the race financially but I would favour PP at present.
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Was TH doing much in front though? He was literally mugged with no time to respond. Dickie looking one way and PP appearing on the other side. After the line TH was upsides and ahead if anything. Sure PP had to make up ground but the way it worked out may have won him the race. Dickie could have done a couple of things differently and won the race hence why he was p1ssed off. That said TH may just travel too well for his own good. Ground and pace will clearly be crucial come March. I can see grounds for both camps here.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Thyme Hill myself.

He’s won 1.5L at Ascot getting 3lbs, and is now betean a neck at level weights, with PP all-out to do so. There’s already very little between them, and any further improvement from TH (including tactical acuity from the jockey), will make things very interesting.

For my money, TH’s form is already demonstrably better than anything SDB has to offer, and 9/2 is a perfectly fair price for the Stayers.
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Yes, I suppose it boils down to writing him off [on my part] relative to PP. His price is fair. I do, though, think SDB will prove the better.

My current (and historical, where higher) ratings for those three are:

Paisley Park 165+ (172+)
Thyme Hill 164p
Sire Du Berlais 163+p
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I suppose it boils down to writing him off [on my part] relative to PP. His price is fair. I do, though, think SDB will prove the better.

My current (and historical, where higher) ratings for those three are:

Paisley Park 165+ (172+)
Thyme Hill 164p
Sire Du Berlais 163+p
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And Timeform has it:

159 PP
159 SDB
157 TH
157 LO

So, one way or another, it's a close call
 
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Maxbet said:
I thought the Ascot race was slowly ridden, and personally, I think Mcfabulous who was the least experienced (3 mile) and still a raw bull, was most inconvenienced in that race... He runs in the Cleeve next, given a better pace and delivered later, I make him my best bet over the holiday.
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Not sure he goes so be careful. Paul came out a few days after Newbury and outlined he wasn't sure if he'd stayed the trip and was pondering a drop in distance. Could see him in the Relkeel potentially.
 
I really expect a proper upset in the big one at the festival...too many of the front runners are capable of messing up by coming late blundering or losing round at a crucial stage. Not one of the main contenders can be trusted IMO

My feeling is something 10/1 to 33/1 will get first run on them and won't get caught..toughest race of the festival to predict imo
 
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