Road to the Stayers Hurdle

Anyone think Benie will rock up here? Mullins sends horses to races he thinks he can win.

Concertista could be better than her in a Mares hurdle.

He has a host of horses he could run the Mares Chase and win.

He has nothing for the stayers?
 
I would say mares chase most likely, followed by mares hurdle, with the starters being the outsider of the 3. Will be interesting to see where Roksana goes.

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
 
Do you listen to Ruby? Watched the Road To Cheltenham, and he’s basically poured cold water on the idea of Benie going to the Stayers. Disappointing
 
The horse hadn't been right. If she runs in the mares it's by default.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Copied from the Longshot thread:


Paul's Saga 20/1 Stayers' Hurdle

I don't follow the French form too closely - perhaps Martin or Bachelors Hall can tell us more - but when I looked at the adjusted RPRs for the Stayers' Hurdle, seeing this one second top rated (behind Benie Des Dieux who probably won't go for this) pricked my curiosity.

She seems to have come pretty much from out of the blue this season (on RPRs) but won the Grande Course de Haies, beating the 30/100f L'Autonomie, giving her 5lbs into the bargain, 10 lengths clear of a subsequent G1 winner in Galop Marin (who beat her in that race).

There's bound to be somebody on here who studies these things more than me but I don't recall RPRs going very high for French form so these high ratings in G1 races suggest the French stayers are pretty decent.

25/1 is available but I played safe(r) with the NRNB concession. The chances are if she turns up she'll be a single-figure price and if RPRs are accurate she could well win.

She just strikes me as a possible bit of value.
Click to expand...

You’ll be happy to know she’s running at Warwick on Saturday, en route to the Stayers.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/members/latest/pauls-saga-a-french-post-brexit-first-at-warwick-with-cheltenham-on-the-horizon/472599

Non members

French Champion Hurdle winner Paul's Saga is set to break new ground on Saturday at Warwick when she will become the first French-trained horse to compete in Britain since the end of the post-Brexit transition period.

In doing so she will lay a pathway for trainer David Cottin leading up to next month's Cheltenham Festival, where Paul's Saga could line up in the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle, while Easysland is on course to defend his crown in the Glenfarclas Chase over the cross-country fences.

Travel in and out of Britain for both horses and people has been complicated not only by leaving the European Union but by the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. But with help and guidance from Jockey Club Racecourses – owner of Warwick and Cheltenham – both Paul's Saga and Jason Kiely, a key component in the Cottin operation, have arrived safely ahead of the Close Brothers Warwick Mares' Hurdle.

Kiely described the various hoops which both horse and staff have to jump through as "doable but complicated".

His quarantine will be cut to five days through the 'test to release' scheme, while the horse travelled on a 'carnet de voyage', a pass which comes at a one-off payment for the year, as opposed to the VAT-deposit scheme whereby 20 per cent of the value is paid on entry to the country and can be redeemed from HMRC at a later date.

Describing his own journey, Kiely said: "I drove Paul's Saga over as a transporter and I dropped her off at a satellite yard, where a nominated member of staff looks after her while I quarantine in my hotel. I've got another test in Heathrow on Thursday to be deemed negative, then I'm cleared to look after my horse and take her racing."

The BHA and the UK government have nominated certain major race meetings likely to attract foreign participation as qualifying for the elite athlete exemption scheme and festivals such as Cheltenham and Aintree could require visiting staff only to pass a test either side of travel, with the quarantine period on arrival reduced to as little as 24 hours.

"By the sounds of it Cheltenham is going to be easier because of the elite status," said Kiely. "You can only bring one person per horse and you have to test negative. There'll be extra costs but it's Cheltenham, isn't it?"

The end of the tripartite agreement on the free movement of horses has burdened connections with a whole host of extra paperwork and costs when looking to move animals in or out of Europe.

Kiely said of the whole operation: "It's probably going to cost three and a half grand to run, with the tunnel, coming over a couple of days in advance, vet's tests, Covid-19 tests and the carnet de voyage."

Brian Hughes is booked to ride Paul's Saga at Warwick and Kiely said: "The race on Saturday doesn't make great financial sense unless she wins but she needs to run. It's all very doable but it's complicated and it's two or three weeks of planning for this specific race."

Cottin's neighbour in Chantilly, Hugo Merienne, is looking at running dual Cagnes-sur-Mer winner Margaret's Legacy in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton at the end of the month, although he does not expect to send staff to saddle the horse.

"With Brexit and Covid it's got harder but if there is no change in the rules it should be possible to come over and the horse is in good form right now," said Merienne, who spent time working for Willie Mullins before taking out his own licence.

"I'm fortunate to have plenty of friends in England who can take care of the horse and I think Tom Ward or Gary Moore might be able to help out. The jockey, Ned Curtis, will have to go five days before, but he is English and has a house there so that's all right."

How travel plans will take shape for Irish participants at the festival are currently being explored by Irish and British racing authorities.

IHRB senior medical officer Dr Jennifer Pugh told the Racing Post: "Discussions and plans are under way in conjunction with Cheltenham racecourse and the BHA to ensure the safe participation of the Irish contingent at Cheltenham and will be in line with both Irish and UK public health guidelines. Information will be issued to all involved in the coming days."
 
Last edited:
Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle – Thursday, 18 March
Bacardys
Bachasson
Beacon Edge
Captain Zebo
Champ
City Island
Decor Irlandais
Diol Ker
Donna's Diamond
Emitom
Flooring Porter
French Dynamite
Fury Road
Honest Vic
If The Cap Fits
Imperial Alcazar
Itchy Feet
Jacamar
Kemboy
Lil Rockerfeller
Lisnagar Oscar
Main Fact
McFabulous
Next Destination
Paisley Park
Reserve Tank
Ronald Pump
Sam Spinner
Sams Profile
Sire du Berlais
The Mighty Don
The Storyteller
Thomas Darby
Thyme Hill
Tobefair
Vinndication
Younevercall
Benie des Dieux
Great White Shark
Heaven Help Us
Paul's Saga
Roksana

Withdrawals:
Dame De Compagnie
Kalashnikov
Bapaume
Sixshooter
Commander Of Fleet
Call Me Lord
Vision Des Flos
Ask Dillon
 
Last edited:
wilsonl said:
You’ll be happy to know she’s running at Warwick on Saturday, en route to the Stayers.
Click to expand...

Nice mention for her from Timeform:

[FONT=&quot]Paul’s Saga[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Close Brothers Warwick Mares’ Hurdle, 14:05 Warwick[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Paul’s Saga caused a surprise when landing the Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil – the French Champion Hurdle – at Auteuil in October, finding plenty to lead on the run-in having been five lengths down on the home turn. She had shown smart form the previous autumn, winning the Prix Carmarthen and Prix Leon Olry-Roederer, but her performance in the Grande Course de Haies was a clear career best and a big improvement on recent efforts. She ran to a similar level when again winning the Prix Carmarthen and finishing runner-up in the Grand Prix d'Automne last time, and that form sets a clear standard in this listed contest, putting her nearly a stone clear on weight-adjusted ratings.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]She is trained by David Cottin, who enjoyed Cheltenham Festival success with Easyland in the cross-country last season, and could have the Stayers’ Hurdle on her agenda. She is currently around the 16/1 mark for that race and is a really interesting runner on her first start in Britain.[/FONT]
 
Desert Orchid said:
Paul’s Saga
Close Brothers Warwick Mares’ Hurdle, 14:05 Warwick

...but her performance in the Grande Course de Haies was a clear career best and a big improvement on recent efforts. She ran to a similar level when again winning the Prix Carmarthen and finishing runner-up in the Grand Prix d'Automne last time, and that form sets a clear standard in this listed contest, putting her nearly a stone clear on weight-adjusted [Timeform] ratings.
Click to expand...

I thought I'd check out the implications of this.

Pauls Saga apart, the highest OR in the field is that of Eglantine Du Seuil on 145.

Assume for now that this is also her Timeform rating.

Pauls Saga is giving her 6lbs.

Assume "nearly a stone" = 13lbs.

This means Pauls Saga is rated 19lbs higher than EDS, ie 164.

On top of that, she'll get 7lbs from the males.

Ergo, a male will have to be better than 171 to beat her.

I can't imagine any of them will have that kind of rating on current form. Even on RPRs, the top two male stayers are Paisley Park and Flooring Porter on 165.

I'm going in again on Pauls Saga.
 
Last edited:
I’m a big advocate of French Jumps racing, but I have to say I think Paul’s Saga’s form - whilst being of interest in a weaker Stayers - shouldn’t really be good enough to trouble the front two in the market.

The GCdH form is being over-rated, because they went high on L’Autonomie over much shorter, and she’s proven to be a non-stayer at 3m. I’d have the top French 3m hurdles some way inferior to the form we’ve seen from Paisley Park and Thyme Hill....and dare I say it, Roksana.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
I’m a big advocate of French Jumps racing, but I have to say I think Paul’s Saga’s form - whilst being of interest in a weaker Stayers - shouldn’t really be good enough to trouble the front two in the market.

The GCdH form is being over-rated, because they went high on L’Autonomie over much shorter, and she’s proven to be a non-stayer at 3m. I’d have the top French 3m hurdles some way inferior to the form we’ve seen from Paisley Park and Thyme Hill....and dare I say it, Roksana.
Click to expand...

Not like you to say something interesting.
 
You might be right, GH, but I'm happy to pay to find out.

Based on other races, Timeform's ratings tend to be around 3lbs below RPRs so I'm guessing Timeform have her around 161 and, with respect, I reckon they keep closer tabs on the French form than either you or I, so even with a 6lbs margin for error on the figures I quoted earlier I reckon 20/1 NRNB was a decent shout at the time (not having any other info to hand) and now that Timeform are confirming much improved form this season, I'm more than happy to go in again.

Don't get me wrong. I'm maybe Paisley Park's biggest fan but I can't help thinking if Francois Doumen trained this one it would be 5/1 tops.
 
Fair enough, DO - curiosity often gets the better of me too.

On the subject of PS’s form, she’s 15 races into her hurdles career, and whilst she has clearly improved for the step-up in trip, I have to question exactly how much. Even on her very best form at 3m, she is about the same level as Galop Marin; a 9yo who himself has won only 9 of his 29 hurdle starts.

Are these really 170 horses?

Maybe Timeform are right, but I reckon that the staying hurdles in France probably aren’t taking as much winning as usual, and she will have plenty more to find, to put herself in amongst the places at Cheltenham.....and that’s ignoring any concerns about her ability to handle quicker ground and a stouter pace (she’ll possibly be OK on both fronts).

Good luck with it though. Hard to do too much damage, given her price.
 
Last edited:
Nothing has managed to string 2 wins together in this since Big Bucks and I am willing to put a pen though Paisley Park winning it again.

Whatever caused Mc Fabulous to hang like a gate when beaten by Thyme Hill seemed to be corrected when he trounced On The Blind Side at Kempton

If any trainer can get more out of him it's PN ..I reckon he's a sound ew bet around 12/1
 
Last edited:
Maxbet said:
I thought the Ascot race was slowly ridden, and personally, I think Mcfabulous who was the least experienced (3 mile) and still a raw bull, was most inconvenienced in that race... He runs in the Cleeve next, given a better pace and delivered later, I make him my best bet over the holiday.
Click to expand...

Tanlic said:
Nothing has managed to string 2 wins together in this since Big Bucks and I am willing to put a pen though Paisley Park winning it again.

Whatever caused Mc Fabulous to hang like a gate when beaten by Thyme Hill seemed to be corrected when he trounced On The Blind Side at Kempton

If any trainer can get more out of him it's PN ..I reckon he's a sound ew bet around 12/1
Click to expand...

Totally with you on this, but I think he's going straight to Liverpool!
 
Tanlic said:
Nothing has managed to string 2 wins together in this since Big Bucks and I am willing to put a pen though Paisley Park winning it again.

Whatever caused Mc Fabulous to hang like a gate when beaten by Thyme Hill seemed to be corrected when he trounced On The Blind Side at Kempton

If any trainer can get more out of him it's PN ..I reckon he's a sound ew bet around 12/1
Click to expand...

3 furlongs less might be the answer.
 
Back
Top