Road to the Stayers Hurdle

I wasn't aware of the big market drift Chapman mentioned post-race but if we're going to criticise the tactics employed by the jockeys behind Bryony Frost in the King George we have to pan the jockeys behind the winner there.

I was never happy with the way SDB was travelling so presumably he wasn't 100% right but after the way the Flooring horse won last time I'd have thought the last thing they would do would be to give him an easy lead.

Even worse-ridden than SDB was The Storyteller, trying to come from much further back.

As I say, I wasn't aware SDB drifted beforehand so I was angry at his position through the race and was disappointed at him failing to get to the leader but don't feel so bad if defeat was anticipated in the market.

Credit to the winner and his jockey, though. Must have been brilliant to watch if you backed it!
 
Agreed DO. SDB never looked to be travelling well but all the jockeys guilty of allowing the winner to dominate with no pressure


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HawkWing said:
Are people suggesting that the jockey stole the race? Best horse by some distance (on the day) won.
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No. Suggestion is only that the other jockeys could have don more to give their horses a better chance. Nowhere have I suggested the winner wasn’t the best horse on the day


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viking said:
No. Suggestion is only that the other jockeys could have don more to give their horses a better chance. Nowhere have I suggested the winner wasn’t the best horse on the day


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It wasn't just you. But the rush to find human error for unexpected results over Christmas has been notable on here. We surely have seen enough races to know that things can happen.

He was allowed to dominate without any pressure because his rivals were going as quick as they wanted/could at the time. None of the horses held up finished strongly or made significant ground on him, suggesting that while the winner wasnt challenged early, those riders gave their mounts fair and sensible rides. The type of ground where you lose your season if murdering your horse.
 
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HawkWing said:
It wasn't just you. But the rush to find human error for unexpected results over Christmas has been notable on here. We surely have seen enough races to know that things can happen.
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I agree to an extent. But the jockeys in the King George were farcical.
 
Double J said:
I agree to an extent. But the jockeys in the King George were farcical.
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I don't agree. It was well set up for Frodon. I don't know which horse could have taken Frodon on without hurting themselves. If Nicholls truly thought cyrname would stay he could have done. Several ran like drains - cyr, CDO, lit. There wasn't much left in the field.
 
HawkWing said:
He was allowed to dominate without any pressure because his rivals were going as quick as they wanted/could at the time. None of the horses held up finished strongly or made significant ground on him, suggesting that while the winner wasnt challenged early, those riders gave their mounts fair and sensible rides. The type of ground where you lose your season if murdering your horse.
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I'm not buying that.

SDB had won at 2.5m the time before so could easily have been expected to lie closer to the pace. I suspect the other jockeys were more concerned with keeping tabs on him than the winner.

Get an easy lead in soft ground and it's very hard to be pegged back.

Again, that's not to say the best horse on the day didn't win but we're talking about a 150 handicapper (just raised from 136) against horses rated 10lbs+ better.

If the form can be taken at face value Flooring Porter wins the Stayers' Hurdle head in chest.
 
Nonsense. All confirmation bias. And if the previous held beliefs aren't confirmed, something crooked is afoot or all jockeys are rubbish.

You'd swear it was the same ground and you'd swear than form in December at leop in hock deep ground id the same as chelt in march. It's the type of thinking where you are never wrong. You'd swear this was the target for SDBs season. Youd cling to the times argument that the pertemps was the 3m championship race from last year's festival.

Everyone likes to say that they always stand up and admit it when they are wrong and have done it countless times previously, this is usually said by people with far far fewer instances of it happening publicly in real time.
 
If your argument is that SDB was not off than you and Mo agree and don't need to swap essays.
 
Slim said:
If your argument is that SDB was not off than you and Mo agree and don't need to swap essays.
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Its more subtle and in need of more than one sentence. in your shorthand, I think he was off. I don't think he was as cherry ripe as he will be next march. He ran to his best today. It wasn't good enough. He was delivered to win the race but wasn't going to be murdered to win.
 
The biggest mystery to me is how Fury Road was sent off 13/8. What was that all about.
 
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HawkWing said:
Its more subtle and in need of more than one sentence. in your shorthand, I think he was off. I don't think he was as cherry ripe as he will be next march. He ran to his best today. It wasn't good enough. He was delivered to win the race but wasn't going to be murdered to win.
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I don't mind any of thst. I would never have bet him today because JP unashamedly only cares about Cheltenham. I'd rate his chances in the Stayers on his Pertemps form. He'll have his chance.
 
Slim said:
If your argument is that SDB was not off than you and Mo agree and don't need to swap essays.
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I don't think I've suggested that he wasn't off. I think the way he was ridden he wasn't going to be seen to best effect on the day. There's a difference.
 
Vindication being linked to the stayers. Wont come near i don’t think, but its a serious race this year
 
Copied from the Longshot thread:


Paul's Saga 20/1 Stayers' Hurdle

I don't follow the French form too closely - perhaps Martin or Bachelors Hall can tell us more - but when I looked at the adjusted RPRs for the Stayers' Hurdle, seeing this one second top rated (behind Benie Des Dieux who probably won't go for this) pricked my curiosity.

She seems to have come pretty much from out of the blue this season (on RPRs) but won the Grande Course de Haies, beating the 30/100f L'Autonomie, giving her 5lbs into the bargain, 10 lengths clear of a subsequent G1 winner in Galop Marin (who beat her in that race).

There's bound to be somebody on here who studies these things more than me but I don't recall RPRs going very high for French form so these high ratings in G1 races suggest the French stayers are pretty decent.

25/1 is available but I played safe(r) with the NRNB concession. The chances are if she turns up she'll be a single-figure price and if RPRs are accurate she could well win.

She just strikes me as a possible bit of value.
 
It's too strong a race for some random Frenchie this year. Maybe last.

And Fury Road is 20s I think. Strong Festival form
 
Is she really a 'random' Frenchie?

With the allowance, she's rated higher than any of the favourites [on RPRs]. It will be interesting to see what mark the handicapper gives her.

Edit
According to France Galop, she's rated 79.o [kg], which equates to 174. I don't know if that already factors in the sex allowance but it is still pretty high.

I have no idea if the cross-channel ratings are directly comparable but it still seems high.

As I said before, maybe Martin/Irish Stamp or Bachelors Hall will know more.
 
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Euronymous said:
Will she stay. Form all seems sub 3m and don't they crawl round?
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Highest RPR so far (159, plus the 7lbs) was over 3m 1.5f in heavy at Auteuil. Second highest RPR was staying on second over 3m at the same track, both in G1s. I would suggest those races are probably truer tests than some of the Listed/G3 kid-on events on these islands.

I'm very open to the idea that this is a stupid bet but I'm happy to have a bit of fun at the price with the NRNB concession.
 
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