Road To The Supreme Novice Hurdle

reet hard said:
Slim
On OR's, Dunguib was rated 6lb higher than GMOOH, on RPR's the same.
The OH has MTOY 9lb higher than Jezki, on RPR's 8lb clear of Dodging Bullets (Jezki lower).
I've no idea of Timeform's historical ratings, but I do know all 3 services have MTOY as considerably the better horse - at this stage
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Tell you what though Reet MTOY will never make a top class hurdler and those rating may even look silly after the Supreme. If he wins the Supreme fair enough it makes him a good horse but as far as Champion Hurdles go in the future forget it.

He travels really well in his races and it would take a very decent horse to get him off the bridle but there are plenty of those about already like Hurricane Fly, Zarkandar, Rock on Ruby and Grandouet who can and always do find in a finish when they are 100% right, Add to those the Neptune and Triumph winner who may well be good enough to be challenging for major honours next year and MTOY will find life extremely difficult.

As I say he does travel well but as far as finding anything under pressure? forget it. He has a horrible head carriage and he looks totally incapable finding anything extra when coming out of his comfort zone. Rating him highly won't change that...As I said before his best chance of winning at Cheltenham is to get away from the fight before it starts by using his speed early. I would be very worried if AP doesn't hit the front just before or just after the 2nd last and plays catch me if you can........he could do that very easily if he does it early enough but if AP sits and waits and waits like he did in bother bumpers and at Newbury and the others can get into top gear he'll be asking for trouble.

I suppose much depends on how he does in the Supreme but I'd like to think he'll go straight over fences next year as he'd make a better Arkle horse than he would a champion hurdler
 
Didn't you write-off Darlan with the same kind of drivel, Tanlic. MTOY has raced four times over hurdles and shown progressive form in each outing. Who is o say if his improvement is at an end?

As Slim might say, the above is just guesswork. :cool:
 
The Beftair form gets its first proper test today, when Dark Lover runs in the National Spirit.
For mine, he showed improved form in that race, and ought to win this cosily. Sharp track and possible lack of pace might not be in his favour, though.

Fist
The only problem with MTOY's head carriage in the Betfair was caused by his looking where the opposition had gone. :lol:
 
Tanlic said:
As I say he does travel well but as far as finding anything under pressure? forget it. He has a horrible head carriage and he looks totally incapable finding anything extra when coming out of his comfort zone.
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I share these doubts about him finding under pressure as well and wonder if we have another Harchibald. I'll look to lay him in running if he's travelling well jumping the 2nd last as I expect something will be challenging?
 
He didn't find much in a small field race on deep ground where they went a crawl. Absolutely no evidence whatsoever the same thing will happen in the Supreme given the totally different conditions. It's straw clutching akin to the argument that Sprinter Sacre wouldn't get up the hill last year because he stumbled over the last losing all momentum in his Supreme.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Fist, I'm not saying you're wrong but what makes you think that the Tent will do better over fences than hurdles?
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He's got the size to jump fences but it's more down to the fact he has a very high cruising speed and tremendous mid race spped that could give him more of an advantage over fences that it does over hurdles.

As we have seen often this season watching horses like Sprinter Sacre and Flemenstar going on sooner than later in chases when you have a lot more mid race pace than your opponents puts them at huge disadvantage.
 
reet hard said:
The Beftair form gets its first proper test today, when Dark Lover runs in the National Spirit.
For mine, he showed improved form in that race, and ought to win this cosily. Sharp track and possible lack of pace might not be in his favour, though.

Fist
The only problem with MTOY's head carriage in the Betfair was caused by his looking where the opposition had gone. :lol:
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The fact he got stuffed means nothing as far as I'm concerned but the overall form of the Betfair wasn't that great. Look back to the 5th horse Petite Robin he was beaten 10 length just behind Dark Lover giving away between 10-14lbs to all 4 in front. He'd have finished 2nd most likely if they were all of levels

I agree with what NH said.he needs to improve again to win the Supreme which is a lot tougher to win than the Betfair.
 
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Euronymous said:
He didn't find much in a small field race on deep ground where they went a crawl. Absolutely no evidence whatsoever the same thing will happen in the Supreme given the totally different conditions. It's straw clutching akin to the argument that Sprinter Sacre wouldn't get up the hill last year because he stumbled over the last losing all momentum in his Supreme.
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Considering I was firmly in the camp that said he would get up the hill without blinking an eyelid and nothing would be able to go with him you can keep me out of that club mate.

Since the Supreme hasn't been run yet of course we don't know for a fact what he'll do if challenged but if you can't see that he doesn't go through with his run when strongly challenged then I doubt if you too the time to watch the races he lost........do it once you wonder.....do it twice you worry..........do it thrice like he has and you have think he'll do it again when the chips are down.............getting him into that position on his last performance wont be easy but if something can.........Panic!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Grasshopper said:
Didn't you write-off Darlan with the same kind of drivel, Tanlic. MTOY has raced four times over hurdles and shown progressive form in each outing. Who is o say if his improvement is at an end?

As Slim might say, the above is just guesswork. :cool:
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Which part of trying to find winners or losers isn't guesswork?

I don't get your point bring Darlan into the equation he didn't do enough one way or another to say I was wrong in saying he wasn't good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Even if he had manged to stand up and beat Rock on Ruby I still wouldn't have changed my mind tbh.

As far as MTOY is concerned I wouldn't back anything to beat him in the Supreme although I do think backing Jezki win and place on the machine is a safer option.


All I am saying is he has a chink in his armour and if something can expose it in the closing stages then he would be in big trouble
 
Tanlic, the reason I brought-up Darlan is because you appear to be dismissing MTOY's prospects just as prematurely as you did Darlan's.

If you think MTOY's performance behind Chatterbox was his true form, you're crazy. It was a tricky race for connections, insofar as not revealing their hand too early was concerned, and it worked out rather well for them. MTOY'S level could not be concealed next time out, but by then it didn't matter too much, as they'd been given a provisional 140. As I said at the time, they probably won too well in his prep, but even a hike to 149 couldn't stop him at Newbury.

He is vastly more likely to repeat/improve his Betfair form, than he is to regress back towards the early Newbury form, IMO. Also, he still hasn't had the end-to-end gallop I believe he needs, and the Supreme is very likely to provide it. He is the clear form pick already, with scope to improve yet. He has to be hard to beat. :cool:
 
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Tanlic said:
The fact he got stuffed means nothing as far as I'm concerned but the overall form of the Betfair wasn't that great. Look back to the 5th horse Petite Robin he was beaten 10 length just behind Dark Lover giving away between 10-14lbs to all 4 in front. He'd have finished 2nd most likely if they were all of levels

I agree with what NH said.he needs to improve again to win the Supreme which is a lot tougher to win than the Betfair.
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Petit Robin ran off 159 - 2nd off levels would merely confirm what many understand already..
Things didn't go Dark Lover's way today, but the notion that he didn't stay (Sean Boyce, ATR) is plainly risible.
 
Grasshopper said:
Tanlic, the reason I brought-up Darlan is because you appear to be dismissing MTOY's prospects just as prematurely as you did Darlan's.

If you think MTOY's performance behind Chatterbox was his true form, you're crazy. It was a tricky race for connections, insofar as not revealing their hand too early was concerned, and it worked out rather well for them. MTOY'S level could not be concealed next time out, but by then it didn't matter too much, as they'd been given a provisional 140. As I said at the time, they probably won too well in his prep, but even a hike to 149 couldn't stop him at Newbury.

He is vastly more likely to repeat/improve his Betfair form, than he is to regress back towards the early Newbury form, IMO. Also, he still hasn't had the end-to-end gallop I believe he needs, and the Supreme is very likely to provide it. He is the clear form pick already, with scope to improve yet. He has to be hard to beat. :cool:
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It's got absolutely nothing to do with whether he ran to his best form against Chatterbox or not he'd pick that horse up and carry him. What I am saying he will not go on to be a Champion Hurdler and I am not dismissing him at all from becoming a very high class horse. he's that already.

What I am saying is he does have a chink in his armour and he finds very little under pressure. Weird you can't see that it's written all over him..... ...that will haunt him all his days and unless he can simply outclass them and never come off the bridle for the rest of his life "Houston we have a problem"

Someone mentioned Harchibald.......no way is he a thinker like him I'd put him in the same sort of category as Go Native......brilliant when things are going his way but when meeting the real deal in Hurricane Fly he moved like a dream simply couldn't pick up and go with him.....inability to quicken under pressure nothing complicated or weird about it just the way he is....because of that I simply don't see MTOY becoming the next Hurricane Fly but I do see Far West possibly doing so......Lets see who fav for the 2014 CH after the Festival.....bet you I'm right......you know I always am:D

BTW I seem to remember you threw the towel in when he was beaten by Chatterbox and me saying he's not out of it yet when he won at Huntingdon..honestly I sincerely hope he wins the Supreme for you as I have no real financial interest in the race. I certainly would not back anything else for a win only, there's 92 others out there and if there's an Istabraq among them he's foo-kin well hidden ;) When I say he needs to improve to win the Supreme I don't mean he has to find yonks he just has to be able to go a bit faster mid race and still keep on the steel and I see no reason the ease in which he traveled at Newbury why he shouldn't be able to do that.
 
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how many will willie mullins run in this?champagne fever,mozoltov,pique sous,annie power,un atout?ive gone cool on mozoltov but annie power looks interesting.
 
aah well buggered if i know whats going to win it,the fave looks so strong but i couldnt face doing my bollocks at 6/4 in the first race
 
William Hill boosting Jezki from 4/1 to 7/1 from 9:00 am tomorrow.
(Limits apply as usual -- £50 ? )

However, this is being mirrored by a drift on Jezki's odds on Betfair.
 
Not unusal for Betfair (7) to be a point longer than the best price (5/1) available so taking in there is nothing amiss with Jezki it's at a stage where Dutching on the McManus pair could be the way to go.

Before MTOY put up that stunning performance in the Betfair Hurdle Jezki looked head and shoulders above the rest so maybe this is a 2 horse race.

While MTOY is probably the better horse there's no real way of telling as AP was bound to ride him after that performance and having never sat on Jezki.

I've still got this nagging doubt about MTOY being able to cope if it comes down to a fight and like Fonz I don't want to get a sickener in the very first race.

Backing both to take out the same amount there's still a small profit to be made if Jezki turns him over.
 
they are now thinking of switching champagne fever to the alfred bartlett he wont be considered for the neptune but they may run mozolotov in the neptune (RP Weekender)
 
Segal's column in the Weekender was terrible today. In it he made a case for opposing MTOY that was pure baloney. A stayer will always win this race ahead of a speed merchant he claims - example Al Ferof beating the two SS's and Captain Cee Bee beating Binocular. Sounds plausable, but what about Go Native and Brave Inca beating future 3m chasers in their years? And yes Tom, I would back Al Ferof to beat Sprinter Sacre if their Supreme conditions were replicated again.
 
Euronymous said:
Segal's column in the Weekender was terrible today. In it he made a case for opposing MTOY that was pure baloney. A stayer will always win this race ahead of a speed merchant he claims - example Al Ferof beating the two SS's and Captain Cee Bee beating Binocular. Sounds plausable, but what about Go Native and Brave Inca beating future 3m chasers in their years? And yes Tom, I would back Al Ferof to beat Sprinter Sacre if their Supreme conditions were replicated again.
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SS had a wind op after not getting up the hill in the Supreme . Had he had the op before he would have probably won pulling a cart.
 
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