Royal Ascot 2019

I have to say I'm a wee bit disappointed that Masar couldn't take care of Defoe & co there. Obviously he might not have been 100% first time up but I was hoping he'd be involved at the finish without necessarily winning impressively. Take him out of the race and you've got a 118-rated horse beating a 105 and others rated 112-117. Group 2 indeed.
 
Well rewatching the start, I’m surprised he ran so well! And the second ran a blinder.
 
I think the sectionals for the sprint will be interesting. Dream Of Dreams must have given him five lengths in the last two furlongs and was in front of him a stride after the line. Did they go too fast up front? Great result for racing, though.

As an aside, is Oisin Murphy already preparing for a career beyond riding? He's saying plenty in the morning programme and being very diplomatic in his interviews. Is this thing about reading poetry between races genuine? When they showed him doing it on Derby day one of the TV guys said he was just doing it for the cameras. Red Pollard II?
 
jinnyj said:
Well rewatching the start, I’m surprised he ran so well! And the second ran a blinder.
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That's just it, jinnyj. The second also got a bad start and was further behind yet left him for dead in the straight. Obviously his 105 rating underestimated him but I'd still expect Masar to take care of him.
 
Nagano Gold ran the last five furlongs in under 60s, furlong by furlong the fastest of any horse in the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ben Vrackie lost at least five lengths out of the stalls only to be beaten in a photo. Desperately unlucky. Ebor winner?
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I've not had the horn for a horse as much for a prospective race since Angel Gabrial for the Plate after his second in the Chester Cup back in '14. That was jaw dropping from Ben Vrackie. The lengths lost at the start, having to circle the field. It must be his target surely
 
Now that the dust has settled a bit, I have to say I feel a bit deflated but that's probably because I lost overall. I was behind after day 1, clawed a bit back on day 2 and got in front on day 3 but it went downhill again after that. Losses on day 4 were followed by a complete wipeout yesterday.

Things could have been different, though. I want to watch all the races again but on another day I could have done very well.

The finish of the Queen Anne makes me think Accidental Agent could have won and Mustashry clearly didn't run his race either. King Of Comedy didn't get the best tactical ride. I had a decent saver on Addeybb.

On Wednesday my scattergun approach to the Hunt Cup caught Afaak and Stylehunter on an otherwise quiet betting day but I'd have won more off Stylehunter who, for me, should have won.

Thursday was better again thanks to Sangarius and Star Catcher. I'm not sure Turgenev would have beaten Biometric but Frankie said he went too soon. I'll need to watch his interview again to see if he said he should have won. I'm open to persuasion on that one but I thought Biometric looked a good winner. Majestic Dawn seemed to beat the rest of the front-runners by miles so I'll want to see the sectionals for that race. So at that stage I was in front overall.

Friday. Again, I want to see Celtic Beauty's mid-race move and whether she should have won if she'd be held up another half-furlong. I suppose if Moore and Dettori can get it wrong on the big stage I shouldn't be too hard on lesser jockeys. I backed Advertise in the Guineas so I'm kicking myself for not at least taking out some sickness insurance. I was too busy studying the form to see anything about how unlucky Watch Me had been in the French Guineas. I'm a wee bit annoyed with myself for not looking more closely at that race. I was really disappointed with Secret Advisor in the Duke of Edinburgh but with the Ebor worth a million that's maybe the plan and the chances are he'd have struggled to beat Ben Vrackie had that one had any luck in running. Ben Vrackie carried the main saver and would have covered me for the day (along with the place return on Celtic Beauty).

Saturday was a total disaster, one of my worst ever days' punting.
 
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Euronymous said:
I've not had the horn for a horse as much for a prospective race since Angel Gabrial for the Plate after his second in the Chester Cup back in '14. That was jaw dropping from Ben Vrackie. The lengths lost at the start, having to circle the field. It must be his target surely
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Also from that race, I've had my eye on Corgi since this time last year, Coming there strongly this time but not quite getting home - The John Smith's Cup round a track he's ran well at in the past looks a feasible target.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not sure Turgenev would have beaten Biometric but Frankie said he went too soon. I'll need to watch his interview again to see if he said he should have won. I'm open to persuasion on that one but I thought Biometric looked a good winner.
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Simon Rowlands appears to suggest Turgenev should have won:

Those sectional times have Turgenev running 13.73s for the final furlong, which means a finishing speed of 92.4% of the horse’s overall race speed, where par (derived from previous TurfTrax data at the course among other sources) is 96.0%.

Given the horse’s overall time, he ran about three lengths slower than optimum in that final furlong, while the winner Biometric ran a perfect split of 13.19s (96.0%). That made the difference between winning and losing, at least in theory (and that theory has been tried and tested for over 20 years now).
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I backed turgenov at 16s but I dont blame frankie.it looked a smart move at the time and ran a cracker.if biometric hadnt run we would all be saying what a great ride.
 
Outsider said:
I backed turgenov at 16s but I dont blame frankie.it looked a smart move at the time and ran a cracker.if biometric hadnt run we would all be saying what a great ride.
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Probably, until the sectionals were analysed. I subscribed to the sectionals last season and the data showed clearly what mark-ups were calculated. Had Turgenev won and got a 9lbs mark-up I'd be looking forward to his next race.

I plan to put him in my tracker anyway. I'll be going back through all the results probably on Sunday and picking out tracker horses from the meeting. King Of Comedy will be another. Big mark-up for him too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I plan to put him in my tracker anyway. I'll be going back through all the results probably on Sunday and picking out tracker horses from the meeting. King Of Comedy will be another. Big mark-up for him too.
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I've backed King of Comedy for the Sussex at 5s. Obvious target, should start sub 3s.

I'm also very interested in Cross Counter for the Goodwood Cup. I think you can mark him up hugely - he was keen as mustard and just didn't last home after looking like a likely challenger. Would expect a stronger pace next month and the trip will suit him better. Held off on a bet as Strad should ensure the price will last. Also wary of Ballydoyle running a couple of choice 3yos as the WFA is way over the top for this race.

Ben Vrackie is entered in a handicap over 1m6 at the July meeting off the same mark. I'll smash him up for that if he runs
 
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Cross Counter was marked up for last week but so was Stradivarius:

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I can feature that but my angle is the trip. CC must have used up some energy reserves early doors in failing to settle. He surely gets a lot closer in a re-match over 16f
 
I was about to post the DM version. It says she’s gone into hiding in Germany. I would imagine he’s not someone to cross in a hurry either. She apparently is lovely according to a friend who worked with his endurance horses in which she was also involved. Could make for a tricky international problem?

I never expanded on the FC thing either did I? Contrary to earlier reports, she was the instigator of the marriage break up not her husband and OB wasn’t just comforting her (I actually saw them leave together on Tuesday and they were all over each other). Hubbys family are devastated the marriage has broken down. He is well regarded in the polo fraternity in Australia and she ain’t popular.
 
Does anybody know what day the Prix Jean Prat is held?

Decrypt apparantly either going there or the July meeting at Newmarket.
 
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