Royal Ascot 2022

I am far from a time expert.

However, I see that Highfield Princess won at Royal Ascot over 7 furlongs in that Buckingham Palace Handicap last year with a time of 1 min 25.96 secs.

Shine So Bright won over the same 7 furlongs at Newmarket last Saturday with a time of 1 min 24.46.

They run up a hill towards the finish over that 7f at Newmarket so you'd think Ascot is a faster track over 7 furlongs and yet still the time of Shine So Brights win on Saturday was about 1.5 seconds faster than Highfield Princess winning time last year, (she looks like a good winner of that race based on what she's done since).

So all in all, (any time experts feel free to chip in and I know comparing times at different tracks is problematic), but I would say that the form of the Shine So Bright race last Saturday looks rock solid.

If Natural Path can improve a couple of lengths the next few weeks he could land a big prize of a mark of 86.

Be interesting to see where the Simon Crisford colt goes next and the winner Shine So Bright is group class. But the handicapper could have both their measures in terms of winning a big handciap at Royal Ascot.

I don't think the same can be said of Natural Path off 86.
 
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Outsider said:
Only rated 86 so wouldnt have got in the hunt cup or wokingham.
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Yes good point and looking at it Natural Path would need to go up 6 or 7lbs to stand a chance of getting in the Buckingham Palace handicap at Royal Ascot.

It's a possibility they will swerve Royal Ascot, pick up a smaller race in between and then try to win a big handicap at Glorious Goodwood.

I feel that is the most likely.
 
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Will be interested if New London takes up his King Edward V11 entry as despite his odds on defeat at Chester do think he will be a top class middle distance colt

8-1 currently
 
jinnyj said:
Homeless Songs in the Coronation? Pretty damn impressive today.
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I was straight online to find out her entries. Bred for a trip but not entered in the Oaks (the Irish race, yes).

That was a bit of a wow performance off a strong pace.
 
If there is a negative I would point to the fact that nothing else was travelling from 2 1/2 furlongs out.
and I reckon the second needs 12 furlongs already

She does look a bit special but no moreso than Inspiral looked in the fillies Mile and that form has worked out extremly well.

She's fav for the Coronation at 2/1 Inspiral 3/1 but that's mainly because she was pulled out of the Guineas.

If they do clash at Ascot and Inspiral is 100% I'd be in the Gosdon camp
 
Tanlic said:
If there is a negative I would point to the fact that nothing else was travelling from 2 1/2 furlongs out.
and I reckon the second needs 12 furlongs already

She does look a bit special but no moreso than Inspiral looked in the fillies Mile and that form has worked out extremly well.

She's fav for the Coronation at 2/1 Inspiral 3/1 but that's mainly because she was pulled out of the Guineas.

If they do clash at Ascot and Inspiral is 100% I'd be in the Gosdon camp
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You are not a good judge.
 
It looks like the second, third and fifth have run to within a pound of their OR differentials with the fourth improving a wee bit.

The winning distance of 5.5 lengths equates to just over 12lbs, which I'd be of a mind to round up to 13lbs for the ease of victory.

Moore appeared intent on making it a proper stamina test so the race looked true run and I think the form can be relied upon.

My provisional figures have the winner on 122p. That is high class, with the promise of more to come at further based on breeding.

And all of this is discounting general progress from the beaten horses.

With the allowance, it might well be possible for her to take on and maybe even beat the colts later in the season. I wouldn't mind seeing how she progresses through the summer with a view to a tilt at the Arc.
 
Slim said:
You are not a good judge.
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In comparison to who? YOU? :whistle: My record of star ******bets is there for all to see

Unbeaten winning run has extended to 9 Since January 1st
Frere D'armes ***Star bet at Evens-WON 400
JPR One My first ***** star bet of the year @ Evens-WON
Ardhill *** star bet @6/4 NON RUNNER
Bavington Bob Newcastle 1.23pm 15/8 *** Star bet WON
Mister Fisher ** star bet 15/8-WON
Bob Olinger Shishkin 5*****star double 6/4 WON
Jonbon Shiskin3***star bet approx 11/8 WON
3*** win bet Bells of Peterboro 11/4 plus Gazette Bourgeoise 2 places 3*** 150 pts Profit Win
Chantry House 5*****start bet Evens WON
Saint Felician 2**star Bet evens LOST






Parisencore 3 star *** Bet Evens WON
Ile De Jersey 2 star ** bet 6/4 LOST 2nd
1 Star * bet Monbeg Genius 2/1 WON
West to the Bridge 4 star bet 11/10 WON
Persian Force 2** Star Bet 11/8 Won
Chindit 5* Bet 4/6 WON
Sceau Royal 3***star bet 11/8 to be placed 3rd WON
Treyarnon Bay Evens 5Star ***** bet. WON
French War AUS 5/2 WON
Cirque Royal 5/2 3Star***Bet WON
Samburu 5star ***** bet 5/4 is stealing money WON
Desert Crown 2star** bet 7/2 WON
Nashwa 1.72 Won
Persian Force 1.66 3star*** double 2.85 WON

20 winning bets 2 losing bets

If I missed any I apologies in advance but I wasted enough time digging them out.
 
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Not too sure how anyone is going to even remotely argue with that list, even I took (small) advantage of 6 of the last 7 and I wouldn't normally go near anything under 16-1. Thanks for that, Tanlic, one of the most consistent runs I ever saw (at any odds).
 
Marb said:
I am far from a time expert.

However, I see that Highfield Princess won at Royal Ascot over 7 furlongs in that Buckingham Palace Handicap last year with a time of 1 min 25.96 secs.

Shine So Bright won over the same 7 furlongs at Newmarket last Saturday with a time of 1 min 24.46.

They run up a hill towards the finish over that 7f at Newmarket so you'd think Ascot is a faster track over 7 furlongs and yet still the time of Shine So Brights win on Saturday was about 1.5 seconds faster than Highfield Princess winning time last year, (she looks like a good winner of that race based on what she's done since).

So all in all, (any time experts feel free to chip in and I know comparing times at different tracks is problematic), but I would say that the form of the Shine So Bright race last Saturday looks rock solid.

If Natural Path can improve a couple of lengths the next few weeks he could land a big prize of a mark of 86.

Be interesting to see where the Simon Crisford colt goes next and the winner Shine So Bright is group class. But the handicapper could have both their measures in terms of winning a big handciap at Royal Ascot.

I don't think the same can be said of Natural Path off 86.
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Natural Path could run at Chelmsford on Saturday in the 4.45. Hopefully he can win there then next stop Glorious Goodwood or the Buckingham Palace handicap at Royal Ascot.
 
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Newmarket's 7f trip is net downhill, I think. Ascot's is net uphill. You'd expect them to run faster at Newmarket, especially when they can accelerate downhill at the dip.

I don't use RP standards but the old Raceform Standard Times for the two tracks were:

Ascot 1m 27s
Newm 1m 24.5s (both courses)

At the trip, 2.5s is about 15 lengths.

Ascot's 7f is the stiffest in the country.
 
So about 0.17 seconds per length on an average finish (that's what I used to use a long time ago, but too long to remember the rest of the calculation). At the time, I thought it might be flawed, so nice to see the validation. This might be going into too much detail (if, so, a simple yes or no will suffice :-), but do you adjust for pace through the rest of the race and at different class levels, Desert?
 
chaumi said:
but do you adjust for pace through the rest of the race and at different class levels, Desert?
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Not per se, chaumi, but in my notes I'll ad 'sl' to remind me to treat a slow-run race with caution. I also check through the race comments to see if the pacesetters were still there at the end or not, to help with the idea of pace in the race. If something finishes strongly off a slow pace I'll add a '+' as a rough indicator that the performance should be marked up. I've been doing this since long before sectionals became more popular in this country.

It was something I learned from listening to athletics commentators.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Newmarket's 7f trip is net downhill, I think. Ascot's is net uphill. You'd expect them to run faster at Newmarket, especially when they can accelerate downhill at the dip.

I don't use RP standards but the old Raceform Standard Times for the two tracks were:

Ascot 1m 27s
Newm 1m 24.5s (both courses)

At the trip, 2.5s is about 15 lengths.

Ascot's 7f is the stiffest in the country.
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Thankyou for your correction, DO.

So going back to the Shine So Bright race where Natural Path was third.

Was it an average time would you say or decent or even very good?

You have pointed out the differences in comparing times with Ascot but I am still curious as to how to evaluate the Newmarket race.

Do we think the form is up to scratch?
 
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Marb said:
So going back to the Shine So Bright race where Natural Path was third.

Was it an average time would you say or decent or even very good?

You have pointed out the differences in comparing times with Ascot but I am still curious as to how to evaluate the Newmarket race.

Do we think the form is up to scratch?
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I'll have to find time to go back to it.

From memory, it beat the well-fancied 5/2 favourite but it had Davies taking 7lbs off it. I'd be tempted to take the favourite as having won an average race of that class/value so NP would have to find a couple of lengths' improvement to win a similar race or hope for a slightly substandard field.

The other thing, though, is that off 86 NP is highly unlikely to get a sniff of the cut in a top royal Ascot hcap.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'll have to find time to go back to it.

From memory, it beat the well-fancied 5/2 favourite but it had Davies taking 7lbs off it. I'd be tempted to take the favourite as having won an average race of that class/value so NP would have to find a couple of lengths' improvement to win a similar race or hope for a slightly substandard field.

The other thing, though, is that off 86 NP is highly unlikely to get a sniff of the cut in a top royal Ascot hcap.
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He is entered at Chelmsford on Saturday.

A 6 or 7lb rise is what he needs - for the only race he could possibly now be entered for - The Buckingham Palace stakes handicap over 7F.

93 or thereabouts was the cut off for it last year.

I would like to see him win well on Saturday before entertaining the idea he is a contender for a really big showcase handicap like the one mentioned above. As you kind of alude to..the last day wasn't conclusive enough.
 
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If he wins at Chelmsford and goes up 6/7lbs, he'd need to find another 12lbs in a much higher class of race to have any chance in a race like the BP.
 
Wesley Ward re: Golden Pal.

"He is definitely by far and away for me the fastest horse on the planet"

"He's the best I've ever had"

Golden Pal is now generally 2/1 and Nature Strip 7/2

I sincerly hope some of you grabbed the 11/8 by dutching the pair Now 4/5

I hammered them both to 5*****Star level to be honest but with good reason.

Nothing will get near either one of them IMO and if one doesn't turn up I still believe my bet is buying money.

My other interest is Inspiral for the Coronation Cup. She missed the Irish 1000 Guineas as they felt she needs a bit more time.
The way Homeless Songs won it's just as well as she is going to have to be 110% to beat her at Ascot.

The abscence is a worry but John Gosden has a great record with fillies and he rates this girl one of the best he's had
so I'm pretty confident she'll either go to Ascot in top form or won't turn up at all.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
If he wins at Chelmsford and goes up 6/7lbs, he'd need to find another 12lbs in a much higher class of race to have any chance in a race like the BP.
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Natural Path has been declared in the 4.45 at Chelmsford on Saturday. I would be surprised if he's not favourite or thereabouts. I'll be disappointed if he can't put these away.
 
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