Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I am shocked. I expected Bay Bridge to be 7/4 tops for this after that win. 7/2 readily available.
Royal Ascot 2022
- Thread starter Slim
- Start date
I am shocked. I expected Bay Bridge to be 7/4 tops for this after that win. 7/2 readily available.
3/1 now.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
5/1 against a bunch of all weather shitehawks seems reasonable if he's trying tomorrow. Wizard D'amour whom I backed was a bit below form in that Newmarket race but the front four did pull clear.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I thought WDA was below form that day. Maybe the race came too soon. I reckon the previous run will stand up but I haven't looked at this race tomorrow.
Yeah I don't know what you made of it Euro he was a bit disappointing but still ran third. He lost the race in the middle part when he got too far back so maybe a horse for another day?
I see he is entered in the 5.45 at Epsom on Friday over seven furlongs.
At least his trainer is entering him up while he is fit and well. He'd be a contender this Friday were he to be declared.
He does actually have form on softer going conditions from France so I am wondering if he might find some necessary improvement on good to soft or soft.
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Declared. Fridays card looks decent.
What Royal Ascot pointers will be revealed after Friday and Saturday I wonder...
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I like Friday's card a lot. I fucked up punting Astro King for the 9f handicap on Monday. The rain means he doesn't run.
I backed Sea Silk Road for the Ribblesdale a fortnight or so ago on the basis that the market leaders for the race at the time all looked like Epsom fillies. Fortunately they all take the Oaks option.
I have a few trackers out this weekend plus a couple I have my eye on in the Group races and I might try a mini-Cheltenham strategy in that I'm looking to double or multi these horses with some Royal Ascot fancies to really lock in some nice positions.
At the moment I'm looking at Alcohol Free in the Duke of Cambridge, Kyprios in the Gold Cup, Perfect Power in the Commonwealth, maybe the Aussie horse in the Kings Stand as I can't see the American staying (or I might just lay that thing IR), Homeless Songs in the Coronation.
I backed Sea Silk Road for the Ribblesdale a fortnight or so ago on the basis that the market leaders for the race at the time all looked like Epsom fillies. Fortunately they all take the Oaks option.
I have a few trackers out this weekend plus a couple I have my eye on in the Group races and I might try a mini-Cheltenham strategy in that I'm looking to double or multi these horses with some Royal Ascot fancies to really lock in some nice positions.
At the moment I'm looking at Alcohol Free in the Duke of Cambridge, Kyprios in the Gold Cup, Perfect Power in the Commonwealth, maybe the Aussie horse in the Kings Stand as I can't see the American staying (or I might just lay that thing IR), Homeless Songs in the Coronation.
Kyprios is the biggest ******* certainty of all time.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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You keep saying it, Slim, but I'm struggling to see it myself. It's only rated something like 114. That said, I haven't studied the race yet but I'd want to know it was worthy of odds-on status before being so confident. For me, that would mean being confident that it was a 125+ waiting to happen.
I am still open minded about the Gold Cup I will have a look nearer the time. A cracking run by Scope the last day but as I said at the time I feel he'll show his very best on softer ground and what chance of that in the middle of June?!
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I've been studying the Gold Cup
The fav achieved a rating of 100 before winning a nothing race at 1/10
Somehow the RP decided on that basis he's higher rated than Stradivarius
That of course could be complete nonsense but to counter that he is trained by a genius so the bookies are taking no chances.
Aiden has won the race several times but apart from Yeats not with one that was rated as low as 100 two races before the Gold Cup
Order of St George 124 Leading Light 110 Fame and Glory 124 They were also a lot more experienced.
It's easy to say Stradivarius is past his best and I would have to agree but stranger things have happened
Purely on the book Trueshan stands out as the most likely winner but the book doesn't always work out.
I can't imagine those 3 filling the first 3 places. Life is never that simple.
When Scope won in France the 2m trip of brought out the best in him
He was just starting to get going in the closing stages and won easier than the distance would suggest.
He ran a blinder over 1m4f on his return in a prep for this,
This doesn't look like a classic Gold Cup and the ground won't be an issue, so I am going with Scope to cause aminor upset.
The fav achieved a rating of 100 before winning a nothing race at 1/10
Somehow the RP decided on that basis he's higher rated than Stradivarius
That of course could be complete nonsense but to counter that he is trained by a genius so the bookies are taking no chances.
Aiden has won the race several times but apart from Yeats not with one that was rated as low as 100 two races before the Gold Cup
Order of St George 124 Leading Light 110 Fame and Glory 124 They were also a lot more experienced.
It's easy to say Stradivarius is past his best and I would have to agree but stranger things have happened
Purely on the book Trueshan stands out as the most likely winner but the book doesn't always work out.
I can't imagine those 3 filling the first 3 places. Life is never that simple.
When Scope won in France the 2m trip of brought out the best in him
He was just starting to get going in the closing stages and won easier than the distance would suggest.
He ran a blinder over 1m4f on his return in a prep for this,
This doesn't look like a classic Gold Cup and the ground won't be an issue, so I am going with Scope to cause aminor upset.
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If the ground is good Trueshan is going to struggle and I'd be very skeptical of his mark of 120.. Stradivarius is 118 and no way he is running bove that at this stage. Kyprios is unexposed at the trip and on a steep upward curve. The better the ground the further he wins.
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He beat a 101 horse by 14 lengths with his **** out.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
That means nothing Slim
Aiden's Amhran Na Bhfiann beat the same horse by 33 lengths when he was rated 106.
Doesn't make Amhran Na Bhfiann a Gold Cup horse
Maybe he will turn out to be a Gold Cup horse but as Aiden says anyone who thinks they know are kidding themselves.
I certainly wouldn't be having the kitchen sink on to find out.
One of my 2, Nature Strip for the King Stand left Australia yesterday
As of yet I haven't heard anything regarding Golden Pal but I'm sure he'll turn up.
That's where my money has gone dutching the pair at 11/8 in my biggest bet in years.
When one of them wins with it's **** hanging out I will be 21 for 23 winning star bets.
I will then withdraw xxxxx a fookin lot of money and leave 100 quid in Betfair to mess about with until November.
So quite frankly I don't give a fook what wins the Ascot Gold Cup but wish you luck as you've obviously got more than a few quid riding on it.
Aiden's Amhran Na Bhfiann beat the same horse by 33 lengths when he was rated 106.
Doesn't make Amhran Na Bhfiann a Gold Cup horse
Maybe he will turn out to be a Gold Cup horse but as Aiden says anyone who thinks they know are kidding themselves.
I certainly wouldn't be having the kitchen sink on to find out.
One of my 2, Nature Strip for the King Stand left Australia yesterday
As of yet I haven't heard anything regarding Golden Pal but I'm sure he'll turn up.
That's where my money has gone dutching the pair at 11/8 in my biggest bet in years.
When one of them wins with it's **** hanging out I will be 21 for 23 winning star bets.
I will then withdraw xxxxx a fookin lot of money and leave 100 quid in Betfair to mess about with until November.
So quite frankly I don't give a fook what wins the Ascot Gold Cup but wish you luck as you've obviously got more than a few quid riding on it.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Sunchart clearly ran below form that day. He was behind a 98 rated 100s poke
Jockey said he ran his race. He simply got bulldozed by Kyprios. I'm delighted no one fancies him, thsts why he's 7/2 and not 7/4.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I meant Sunchart was below form in the Amhran race.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I checked Trueshan last night. He has three or four bits of form that all point to his being at least around 120.
Quickthorn has twice franked this season's form and the well beaten fourth has also come out and won.
Obviously he is ground dependent but he is very solid around his mark. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of further improvement with that run under his belt.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Can make all the ecuses you like but he's 1 win from 15 and no way is he realiable enough to be hanging your hat on
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He's an early 100s horse and 11 of those 15 races have been in Group or listed races. His strikerate therefore is about right. He's reasonably consistent and a half decent yardstick.
No one is saying Kyprios is good because he beat Sunchart. A pair of eyes is all you need and a look at his breeding.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I think it's very complicated. His form when he beat Search for a Song with Sunchart well beaten (11 lengths) didn't have everyone running to back him.
There was some money for him but the price cut that made him fav came when when he won on the 13th of May
Sunchart was 14 lengths behind him but on that same day Search for a Song ran Stradavarius to 3 lengths.
The latter for me would be the better yardstick but he has let the form down in France since when well beaten behind Skazino
whom my selection Scope beat previously.
He was alaso beaten by Scope 6 lengths.
It seems like I am going round in circle and keep coming back to Scope who I think must have a cracking chance if he stays.
There was some money for him but the price cut that made him fav came when when he won on the 13th of May
Sunchart was 14 lengths behind him but on that same day Search for a Song ran Stradavarius to 3 lengths.
The latter for me would be the better yardstick but he has let the form down in France since when well beaten behind Skazino
whom my selection Scope beat previously.
He was alaso beaten by Scope 6 lengths.
It seems like I am going round in circle and keep coming back to Scope who I think must have a cracking chance if he stays.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I have looked. He's a full brother to Search For A Song under the same ownership and I am not denying his win in the Vintage Crop has turned out to be as good as Stardavarius's form.
He's younger and open to more improvement but if they were that certain as you seem to be that he will stay he wouldn't be 7/2.
It will be down to who stays the trip best. If it was 2miles I would be in your camp but he might be a tad too speedy to see uot that final 4 furlongs.