Royal Ascot 2022

Tanlic said:
I have looked. He's a full brother to Search For A Song under the same ownership and I am not denying his win in the Vintage Crop has turned out to be as good as Stardavarius's form.

He's younger and open to more improvement but if they were that certain as you seem to be that he will stay he wouldn't be 7/2.

It will be down to who stays the trip best. If it was 2miles I would be in your camp but he might be a tad too speedy to see uot that final 4 furlongs.
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They can't get on until the show. I fully expect them to bet it on the day.
 
Not long now and I've already mentioned I'm trying to treat this as a sort of mini- Cheltenham. Getting involved ante-post and trying to have some doubles/multis going onto some fancies.

Tuesday:
The Queen Anne and SJP look fairly straightforward for Baaeed and Coroebus. Not completely convinced about the latter (this will be his first time racing round a bend) but I can't see a viable alternative.

No idea on the 2yo events so that leaves the King's Stand and Wolferton. In the former I want to be against the American and Aussie horses at the head of the market. I think both are vulnerable over a stiff 5. No entries for the latter as yet but there are prices available. I've taken a flyer on Foxes Tales at 12/1.

Wednesday:
I managed to get some 7/2 about Bay Bridge immediately after the BG for the Prince of Wales. Can't see him beat.
Alcohol Free should be capable of returning to form against her own sex - I think she was unsuited to a slow pace in the Lockinge and one or two of her toughest rivals in the DoC will give her weight. I've backed Dhahabi for the Hunt Cup and whilst he was a tad disappointing at Donny on Friday evening if he goes here this test will be more suitable.

Thursday:
I've got 10/1 about Sea Silk Road in the Ribblesdale. She's nap material but I also quite like Mukaddamah.
Kyprios looks ultra solid for the Gold Cup unless it rains and Trueshan goes. Strad is no longer a force and Scope a likely non-stayer.

Friday:
I have doubles going onto Perfect Power in the Commonwealth Cup. Not convinced by the Sandy Lane form and his possible dangers could be Tenebrism and Lusail. However I'm not sure the former has trained on and Hannon is almost as apt to **** up a group horse as Braveheart. Wouldn't oppose the Weld filly in the Coronation.

Saturday:
Hurricane Lane heads the Hardwicke market at 11/10 but he's yet to appear this season and if the ground has firm in it will he run? I want to be against him anyway and Al Aasy is a bet at 8s. Bay Bridge is ahead of him in the market but is more likely to go POW.
I can't get a handle on the Jubilee and I've backed First Folio in the Wokingham.
 
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Interesting post, Euro. I am a bit hungover but I shall digest it later.

I am considering an each way bet on Star Of Lady M for the Queen Mary.

In most years this wouldn't be the type of race I would bet in on the day nevermind anti post but I liked the way she toughed it out the last day albeit in a lesser contest as Mussleburgh. She is 3/4 now in her early career and I am tempted at some of the odds she is being quoted at.

Although the entries for the race aren't even out yet.

So I am still considering it at the moment.
 
Interesting post, Euro. I am a bit hungover but I shall digest it later.

I am considering an each way bet on Star Of Lady M for the Queen Mary.

In most years this wouldn't be the type of race I would bet in on the day nevermind anti post but I liked the way she toughed it out the last day albeit in a lesser contest at Beverley. She is 3/4 now in her early career and I am tempted at some of the odds she is being quoted at.

Although the entries for the race aren't even out yet.

So I am still only considering it at the moment.
 
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Copied from the longshot thread:

Commonwealth Cup - Flotus 50/1 - only has a length to find with Tenebrism (10/1 for this) on Cheveley Park form and started this season rated 112 (Tenebrism 114) and her allowance will put her on the same figure as the top-rated male Perfect Power (9/2f). The Crisfords are serious target trainers (at least Simon is) and I'd be very hopeful they'll have the filly on song for the day. I think the price is miles too long.
 
I normally go on the Tuesday but this year it’s a first (for many years as I did the QA Enc.) in the Royal Enclosure (supposed to be a Birthday treat for the mother but she’s had a rheumatoid flare up so will be a non runner). Anyway heading there on Friday and I am really looking forward to the Commonwealth Cup and Coronation.
 
I just had a look at the first two days races and those where we can see some entries. I am very keen on Sibila Spain the French raider in the Duke Of Cambridge. She is priced short enough between 6 and 8s but she has got good form in the book. It looks to me based on her fourth placing behind Joan Of Arc, last season over 1 mile 2F where she was leading before fading at the finish that her ideal trip now for this season is the 1 mile.

This is a group 2 but everything Simila Spain has done this season makes me think a fastly proper run race over the mile is where she is going to excel at. I will be having a bet on her win only. Royal Ascot is an international meeting and I reckon her trainer will have her ready to run her race.

One horse who I see Corals and Ladbrokes are standout 40/1 on in the Royal Hunt Cup is Aratus. He won several races last season including a decent handicap at Goodwood, but those races were in July and August which isn't exactly the start of the flat season.

My point being that given this fact, he ran well to finish ninth in the 20+ runner Victoria Cup last month. He was finishing well like the extra furlong in the Royal Hunt Cup would suit and he can come on for that to run a big race if he goes for this.

There are so many horses in the race but I just feel Aratus will get better as his season progresses and I might have to try and get some of the 40/1 even though I don't use Ladbrokes or Corals accounts online.
 
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Euronymous said:
He's an early 100s horse and 11 of those 15 races have been in Group or listed races. His strikerate therefore is about right. He's reasonably consistent and a half decent yardstick.
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I think it's fair to say he's an early 100s horse on a going day but 50% of his runs he's been beaten between 10 lengths and 33 lengths.

We have no real way of knowing which Sunchart turned up against Kyprios.

You can kid yourself and say in the 8 races he was beat out of sight he wasn't right but he was spot on when he ran against Kyprios.

Kyprios is probably a worthy favourite but I think until he does the business he's worth opposing as 7/2 is way too short
 
Tanlic said:
I think it's fair to say he's an early 100s horse on a going day but 50% of his runs he's been beaten between 10 lengths and 33 lengths.

We have no real way of knowing which Sunchart turned up against Kyprios.

You can kid yourself and say in the 8 races he was beat out of sight he wasn't right but he was spot on when he ran against Kyprios.

Kyprios is probably a worthy favourite but I think until he does the business he's worth opposing as 7/2 is way too short
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I'd love a betting shop full of you.
 
It doesn't matter which Sunchart showed up. You cannot always assess a horse by the quality of the horses beaten in a given race. Experience and Instinct are as vital as form study.
 
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Looks like Irad is coming over to ride Golden Pal

He rides him better than Frankie and they wont see which way he went:D
 
I think if the ground is on the quick side Tuesday, then think this sprinter will outrun his current odds of 40-1 in the Kings Stand

​Diligent Harry
 
I won't mind if Golden Pal wins a minute but make no mistake Nature Strip is regarded as the best sprinter in the world down under.
I will be amazed if they don't turn this into a 2 horse race.

As for backing anything EW this, IMO, is not the race to be playing in @1/5th the odds 3 places.
Realistically you could be competing against 20 other horses or so for one place unless the wheels fall off one of the front two on the market
 
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One interesting take I heard recently - the UK/Irish sprinters now are a better standard than the ones Choisir and Takeover Target were beating back in the day because of breeding trends. Might mean the likes of Twilight Calls and King's Lynn aren't the no-hopers they are being painted as.
 
Skybet are boosting the Bay Bridge / Homeless Songs double to 6/1 with both NRNB. Pretty generous considering the best price elsewhere is 7/2 without the concession.

Unfortunately they max to £20 but the wife & mother are keen on it’s chances too
 
Marb said:
Interesting post, Euro. I am a bit hungover but I shall digest it later.

I am considering an each way bet on Star Of Lady M for the Queen Mary.

In most years this wouldn't be the type of race I would bet in on the day nevermind anti post but I liked the way she toughed it out the last day albeit in a lesser contest as Mussleburgh. She is 3/4 now in her early career and I am tempted at some of the odds she is being quoted at.

Although the entries for the race aren't even out yet.

So I am still considering it at the moment.
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Star Of Lady M also today entered for the listed Windsor Castle stakes on the Wednesday along with the group two Queen Mary stakes.

I like her more for the Windsor Castle as it might not be as hard as the Queen Mary. A fair difference between a group 2 and a listed race so I hope they declare her for the latter. I am just waiting to see some odds.

My other Wednesday fancies Sibila Spain, (this is a strong fancy), and Aratus in the Royal Hunt Cup both have those entries.
 
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Euronymous said:
One interesting take I heard recently - the UK/Irish sprinters now are a better standard than the ones Choisir and Takeover Target were beating back in the day because of breeding trends. Might mean the likes of Twilight Calls and King's Lynn aren't the no-hopers they are being painted as.
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If that's the case then it would seem the ratings haven't caught up with them.

The dangers of race standardisation...

(Not that I'm against race standardisation, it's just that it won't always throw up a true evaluation of a race.)
 
Sprinters, I have to say, are the group I'm least confident about as far as my own ratings are concerned, especially the 5f ones.

I tend to stick to the G1s and the £50k - £100k hcaps with them. Most of the time I'm happy to let them go.
 
Euronymous said:
Yeah, they also thought Winx was better than Frankel.
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Who are they.....Frankel Secretariat Winx was the order that was accepted by most when they did a virtual Cox Plate.

I watch Aussie racing every other day and I assure you Nature Strip is much better than anything we have at home.
We are talking an Everest winner rated 124 1lb behind Baaeed..we have nothing of that calibre

I don't know how good Golden Pal is but as I posted earlier they wont hear of defeat.

That said here's what a top Jockey in Aus has to say about Nature Strip

"His best is too good, it's as simple as that,"

"He has been the most dominant world-class sprinter for the last two years and we have the best sprinters in the world.

"He only has to be a length off his best to brain them all.

"He is simply the best.

Of course you know better so what's your selection?
 
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I had a small bet on Twilight Calls straight after he was beaten in the Palace House from a bad draw. He's a lot shorter now but I wouldn't call it a confident pick, I haven't topped up.
 
wilsonl said:
Skybet are boosting the Bay Bridge / Homeless Songs double to 6/1 with both NRNB. Pretty generous considering the best price elsewhere is 7/2 without the concession.

Unfortunately they max to £20 but the wife & mother are keen on it’s chances too
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Missed this earlier. Now in to 4/1

Well done getting the 6/1


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