Royal Ascot 2022

Outsider said:
Well done Tan.
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Thanks mate.Huge pay day for me so I will not be having anymore large bets until Next jump season.

I do wonder though if Chris Waller will go ahead as planned and run Nature Strip again on Saturday.

He did say if he won today easily they would seriously consider it. He'll have to eat up and give the right signs as the Everest
later in the year worth $4m is his main target

He's 6/1 for Saturday while his stable comapnion is 4/1 favourite, If he does run the worlds number one female jockey
Jamie Kah will fly over to take the ride and he'll be 6/4 at best......She's probably on her way to the airport already :lol:
 
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What a finish to the SJP!

Glorified handicap, though.

I don't think I could have asked for more from Mighty Ulysses. Great run but I'm run out of the places, I think!
 
Never in doubt Coroebus!
The second looked like he would run a race after Newmarket.
The Haggas beast fairly flew home.
 
Desert Orchid said:
5.00 - I’ve taken Arcadian Sunrise (9/1) with Harry Davies’s claim likely to prove extra-valuable at this trip. I might think about Coltrane (11/1) for similar reasons; the jockey is operating at 31% for the trainer this season and 87.5% placings. I’m also on Themaxwecan (40/1) as a value outsider. I’ll probably back Reshoun (16/1) because it’s top of the table and leave it at that.
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A winner at last.

(And the third and fifth.)
 
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Nice DO. I backed Arcadian but you can’t give that much ground away going wide over 2.5 on this course. Was done no favours by Doyle either.

West End Charmer in the next but I took the Skybet 66/1 double Nature Strip and Tasman Bay who, I hadn’t initially noticed, probably has the best form in the race if he’s ready to roll after 10 months off
 
Wed
Nahanni 3.05.
Gave the whole field a start in the Derby,and was still out the back turning in, but still managed to finish 7th.
Lots of unexposed horses in tomorrow's field, but none come close on form.
Stiff track and extra 2f all in his favour, and I have him the strongest bet of the meeting,so far.
9/2 Betfair.
 
I'm having 8/5 about William Buick finding his way into a place (5 Places) from a desperately bad draw on Star Safari

In case he pulls off a miracle and wins I've had a small bet at 10 to win on the machine.
 
Desert Orchid said:
5.35 - I’ve taken 25/1 Aristia and will decide on Tuesday what to back it up with. Juan Elcano (17/2), Certain Lad (40/1), Regal Reality (9/1) and Foxes Tales (11/1) are the others for the short list.
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Gobsmacked to see Certain Lad in to 14s or thereabouts. I don't have a not that I've backed it so have had to bite the bullet and take the short price.
 
Silly commentator had me all excited for aminute when he mixed up Star Safari with the winner in the same colours.

Star Safari PU hope he's OK?
 
I hope Sibila Spain does what I think she can tomorrow in the 4.20. She is a couple points too big in the market as she is French. I am also quite sweet on Ffion in the final race at 6.10. She was second at this meeting last year and although higher in the handicap I think there is more improvement to come from her.

My other interests are Aratus in the Royal Hunt Cup who is attracting support and Star Of Lady M in the Windsor Castle. All each way.

Good luck all for tomorrow.
 
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Wed:
Bay Bridge is my main bet of the week. 7/2 immediately after the BG was way too big. I've topped up since at 7/4 and 6/4 and he is the second leg of live doubles with Spinaround (Chelmsford 9/4 winner), Harry Three (8/1) and Golden Voice (11/4) from last Saturday. The Jap horse I can't have but Lord North is worth a saver. He barely stays 10f and the extended version of the Curragh race was always against him.

I've followed Marb's in with the Frenchie in the Do C. Initially I liked the Cheveley filly who was beaten at Epsom after missing the break but with her absent the front of the market doesn't inspire - 8/1 is value
 
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wilsonl said:
Arcadian Sunrise was unlucky there
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Disagree. They took the gamble on a claimer but that is a perfect example of why they get the allowance.

I always do the form as it stands. Any allowance is completely subjective but a 5lb claimer is almost never worth the full allowance and it aggravates me when someone says a horse is effectively off X-5 because a 5lb claimer is on board.
 
I agree re the claimer approach but he’s given away more lengths than he was beaten for a number of reasons, jockey inexperience being just one. It didn’t help when they slowed the pace down not long after he’d lost his position. He should have won and I’m not moaning as you takes your chances when backing a claimer in a tough race like that

RP Analysis:
Arcadian Sunrise fared well given he came from an uncompromising position and down the outside in the straight and he's the one to take from the race. A stronger overall gallop would have suited and he'll be interesting in the big staying handicaps later in the season.
 
Thursday, Britannia - Whoputfiftyinyou 8/1 BOG - won the Haydock race I've been banging on about. Outgate franked it on Saturday and Mighty Ulysses ran a terrific race in the SJP today. I can see the price halving, especially with the nearside draw.

(But I'll be mob-handed in the race, as per.)

Edit

I've now added Harrow 50/1 (boosted to 60s) BOG - started the season rated 103 after a nice third in the G3 Somerville Tattersall but a string of modest efforts has seen his mark drop 7lbs. He wears first time cheekpieces, Harry Davies has been booked and it's drawn right under the near rail. The owners (fronted by that big tube Harry Herbert) like their Ascot winners.

This has also prompted me to back stablemate Koy Koy at 25s (boosted to 28s) BOG since David Probert presumably prefers its chances.
 
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wilsonl said:
I agree re the claimer approach but he’s given away more lengths than he was beaten for a number of reasons, jockey inexperience being just one. It didn’t help when they slowed the pace down not long after he’d lost his position. He should have won and I’m not moaning as you takes your chances when backing a claimer in a tough race like that

RP Analysis:
Arcadian Sunrise fared well given he came from an uncompromising position and down the outside in the straight and he's the one to take from the race. A stronger overall gallop would have suited and he'll be interesting in the big staying handicaps later in the season.
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I backed arcadian sunrise as well and I think you are being rather harsh on the jockey.
Two big bumps didnt help twice knocking him wider.
 
wilsonl said:
I agree re the claimer approach but he’s given away more lengths than he was beaten for a number of reasons, jockey inexperience being just one. It didn’t help when they slowed the pace down not long after he’d lost his position. He should have won and I’m not moaning as you takes your chances when backing a claimer in a tough race like that

RP Analysis:
Arcadian Sunrise fared well given he came from an uncompromising position and down the outside in the straight and he's the one to take from the race. A stronger overall gallop would have suited and he'll be interesting in the big staying handicaps later in the season.
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I've mentioned it before. One of my old man's pearls of wisdom to this teenage would-be form student was, "a seven-pound claimer is a seven-pound penalty".

I largely stand by that but still look to take each case on its merits. When the trainer to whom the rider is indentured (is that the word?) appears to be at pains to preserve the claim for the bigger handicaps it's worth taking notice and when they allow them off to ride for other big trainers in such races it's worth noting as well.

Ardadian Sunrise was just unlucky.
 
I’m not bring harsh on the jockey.

I’m saying the horse was unlucky for various reasons. The jockey didn’t excel himself but nor did he do anything majorly wrong. Its a tricky race as they turn for much of it so if you don’t get a prominent position it’s tough and he didn’t but it happened to plenty of more experienced jockeys today and will for the rest of the week on the round course.
 
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