Royal Ascot 2024

Could do worse than have a fiver ew on every horse Billy Loughnane rides at Ascot.

You could put him on a beach donkey and he could win on it
 
reet hard said:
Another one for you, Marb,
Many seem to think that Believing had a flukey win on Saturday. I don't subscrie,as I doubt GB would have anticipated the strong headwind when he entered her,and she ran purely on merit (and what a job she made of it:)).
The stiff 5f of the King Charles III Stakes should suit her ideally,and I've taken the 16/1 as her trainer said that's where she'll go.
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Reckon Notable Speech had an easy time in the Guineas, which marks him down as a speed horse,imo.
I've taken Henry Longhurst to outbattle him in the SJP.
 
Aside from Notable Speech and Israr it’s a keep your hands in your pockets and enjoy the racing day for me. Good luck all.
 
Outsider said:
Bit disappointed that Wizard of eyes isn't running in the wokingham.
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I know you're an O'Meara man and know that we both have had reason to back Get Shirty in the past. Very eye-catching that it's now racing over 2m 4f, don't you think?
This is the only race I'll have an interest in today; I love staying races.
Two more for Ew would be Berkshire Rocco and Law Of The Sea
 
barjon said:
Aside from Notable Speech and Israr it’s a keep your hands in your pockets and enjoy the racing day for me. Good luck all.
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Today is probably the best card of the week and worthy of going mental with :cool: so I have!

My take on the various races (prices quoted/taken are as they were at the time of writing, mainly Thursday):

2.30 - This race, for all it is a good one on paper, has the potential to fall apart because Big Rock might not appreciate what is shaping up as fast ground and Audience is unlikely to get the easy lead he got in the Lockinge. Facteur Cheval could therefore win by default and his win last time at Meydan was on fastish ground but I don’t fancy 3/1 as a price. Big Rock is so far clear on his best form I feel obliged to take the chance on him and hope he’s okay on the ground. Dolayli looks overpriced and is worth an ew stab and I’ll also have a small ew on Flight Plan at mega odds. I read the other day that Kevin Ryan has a very good strike rate at this meeting and his winners tend to be at long odds so the booking of Ryan Moore for Hi Royal might be significant. Moore won’t be on many 66/1 shots – ever – at this meeting so I’ll be backing him too.
Bets: Big Rock (6/1), Dolayli (20/1), Flight Plan (50/1), Hi Royal (66/1).

3.05 - There has to be a fair chance Camille Pissaro will win, given he’s the only Coolmore runner but none of their winners in the last 20 or so years has ended up a superstar, Caravaggio (OR 116 for winning and a modest 122 for winning the Commonwealth Cup as a 3yo) maybe being the best. I’ve taken 12/1, 5 places (Hills) Francisco’s Piece as a value punt. He’s top on RPRs and second-top on Timeform’s ratings and when I did my own time rating for him it was very high so I reckon he’s probably over-priced. I also intend to back Arran and Angelo Buonarroti at nice prices. The Cole yard doesn’t send them to the big races at this meeting unless they really like them and the latter is an Amo Racing horse so I presume they have some kind of line as to his ability in order to send him here from Norway for his career debut. I’d quite like to get better than 40/1 for him, though.
Bets: Francisco's Piece (12/1), Arran (25/1), Angelo Buonarroti (40/1).

3.45 - It’s a sad indictment of the level of our sprinters that the highest OR in this field is only 114. That’s G3 level at best and I’m surprised that the Australians and Americans have only mustered one raider between them to plunder what is a very decent pot. Asfoora is probably the percentage call because she is used to taking on better opposition than this and her defeat at Haydock could probably be put down to a combination of soft ground and just being teed up for this. She’s the main bet. I’ve backed Vadream ew because I think she’s seriously over-priced. I would have her at no more than 10/1, possibly a bit less.
Bets: Asfoora (7/1), Vadream (66/1)

4.25 - Notable Speech benefited to an extent from a pace collapse in the 2000G so his short price doesn’t appeal. That’s not to say he won’t or can’t win but I don’t think I want to get involved at short odds. Alyanaabi was one of those that got involved in the strong pace in the Guineas and we might see him being much closer to the winner here. Assuming I can get three places, an each-way bet on him looks the value. The other value looks like Unquestionable, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf and who holds a string of G1 entries. They might have an autumn campaign in mind for him but I suspect he is some way better than the 114 off which he started this season.
Bets: Alyanaabi (16/1), Unquestionable (33/1)

5.05 - I went in early with three longshots just in case they ended up shortening: Nusret, Get Shirty and The Grand Visir. I might take one or two others on the day but haven’t decided for now. Not many truly stay this trip but Master Milliner does, having won the Goodwood equivalent but that race might be the main target after nearly two years off.
Bets: Nusret (25/1), Get Shirty (40/1), The Grand Visir (40/1)

5.40 - They appear finally to have found a good race for Israr but, for me, he keeps disappointing. I wouldn’t want to be taking shortish odds about him sticking his neck out in a battle. Last season Astro King won both the John Smith’s and the Cambridgeshire, both much more valuable than this but they’ll struggle to get his mark back down to a winnable one in such contests so this kind of race might be his best shot at glory. I’ve taken a small ew punt on Cemhaan who hasn’t raced over this short a trip for years but who won over just a furlong further the time before last. Perhaps they’re experimenting on account of his stride pattern which suggests he should be fine at it. I’m half-expecting Torito to improve past them all, though.
Bets: Torito (7/2), Cemhaan (35/1)

6.15 - I’ve taken a shine to this race since its introduction even though Vauban last year has been my only winner as far as I can recall. It can also be a messy race. There isn’t anything quite as obviously well in on their hurdles form as was Vauban last year but this might be the kind of race that might suit My Mate Mozzie. Belloccio’s hurdles form (one run, one win in a modest maiden race) is meaningless but the fact that Mullins brings him over with Buick booked might not be. I imagine Ryan Moore would have been approached to take the ride but he rides Fox Journey for whose owners Murphy usually rides but I’m not sure if that’s contractual. The jockey bookings are a bit of a plate of spaghetti to make sense of.
Bets: My Mate Mozzie (7/1), Beamish (22/1), Drawn To Dream (50/1), Lucander (80/1)
 
I. Love. This. Meeting! (Hasn’t been ruined as the “be all and end all” like Cheltenham has.
2.30 I am a Big Rock fan after his previous Ascot visit and while I know he blew out last time I think I’m going to forgive him that. Maljoom would have won the StJP two years ago and has been on my radar ever since.

3.05 I was on Cowardofthecounty but after watching the OS this morning switched to Camille Pisarro just based on run style. Always a race I like to see them beforehand but others I’m considering at The Actor, Al Quadra, Ingot (breeding!) and also Rashabar who I flagged up after a good run at Chester despite being a big horse. This track will be more to his liking and I could see him running OK at a big price.

3.45 Big Evs I am really keen on. He just keeps on delivering. I also like Valiant Force and Crimson Advocate, both winners here last year and ability to handle this course for me can count. Don’t dismiss the Clive Cox pair either.

4.25 Couldn’t fail to be impressed by Notable Speech. Think possibly Rosallion may be another Canford Cliffs...top drawer but with one better. Henry Longfellow is better than last time too.

5.05 Kevin Blake has convinced me Zanndabad is the winner despite the price. Others I like are Pledgeofallegiancd and Nusret

5.40 I have to stick with Ancient Rome who did me a good turn last year but the Gosden pair are also bang there.

6.15 A Piece of Heaven I think is very unexposed and I’ve also got Alkasib and Fox Journey as ones to note.

Have a great day, guys!
 
jinnyj said:
I. Love. This. Meeting! (Hasn’t been ruined as the “be all and end all” like Cheltenham has.
2.30 I am a Big Rock fan after his previous Ascot visit and while I know he blew out last time I think I’m going to forgive him that. Maljoom would have won the StJP two years ago and has been on my radar ever since.

3.05 I was on Cowardofthecounty but after watching the OS this morning switched to Camille Pisarro just based on run style. Always a race I like to see them beforehand but others I’m considering at The Actor, Al Quadra, Ingot (breeding!) and also Rashabar who I flagged up after a good run at Chester despite being a big horse. This track will be more to his liking and I could see him running OK at a big price.

3.45 Big Evs I am really keen on. He just keeps on delivering. I also like Valiant Force and Crimson Advocate, both winners here last year and ability to handle this course for me can count. Don’t dismiss the Clive Cox pair either.

4.25 Couldn’t fail to be impressed by Notable Speech. Think possibly Rosallion may be another Canford Cliffs...top drawer but with one better. Henry Longfellow is better than last time too.

5.05 Kevin Blake has convinced me Zanndabad is the winner despite the price. Others I like are Pledgeofallegiancd and Nusret

5.40 I have to stick with Ancient Rome who did me a good turn last year but the Gosden pair are also bang there.

6.15 A Piece of Heaven I think is very unexposed and I’ve also got Alkasib and Fox Journey as ones to note.

Have a great day, guys!
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I'd be fancying Piece Of heaven, to0, JJ, I'm sorry to tell you lol.
 
Excited but only have one bet today Charyn in the opener ante-post. He's really progressed this season and I liked his run at Newbury in a weird race. I fear the Frenchies a bit but ground/Meydan form not sure, if mine gets beat I can see it being an outsider which can happen in this.

The King's Stand is horrendous to unpick and I don't do 2yos.

The SJP is fascinating but can't see an angle and I do like Torito in the Wolferton but he's a bit short now. More bets tomorrow. Leaving the boaty races alone although I do like Alsakib but again like Torito too short now.
 
I was cheering Charyn on for you, Euro. You were right about him being better than we saw at Newbury. It is much improved this season.

It looks like Big Rock's Ascot run last season was a total freak. Either that or it bottomed the horse.

Well done all Charyn backers. Great winner.

I just wonder if the Docklands team passed up the chance of winning the Hunt Cup there. That was a smashing run.
 
Good winner and he’s much improved as so many of Varians do (Joe Scally leading up is a great guy). What Big Rock was doing over that side.......? That said, I’m not sure he enjoyed the quicker ground today. Maljoom too far back and need to upgrade that run.

Edited: Big Rock hated the ground apparently.
 
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The Coventry suggests there's no real disadvantage on the far side.

Also re the Coventry, what does it say about the 2yos when the first four are 80/1, 40/1, 50/1 and 40/1.

A nice wee tricast there if you found it. Trifecta paid £123k :oops:
 
I think it’s hard to crib form when there are so many unexposed horses in each two year old race.
 
Is it going to be a new trend, just keeping them unexposed until the big day?

We had the Nando horse not long ago and Holloway Boy winning [the Chesham, was it?] first time up at mega odds.

Note to self, just ignore the 2yo races from now on.

Edit - of the horses listed in Timeform's top 2yos to date, six were in that race. The best of them was Cowardofthecounty in 7th.
 
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