Ryanair Chase

Tranquil Sea is starting to look more and more dependent on Soft ground, imo, and I personally can't have him.

I backed Sizing Europe for this, and agree with previous comments about de Bromhead's decision to send him to the Champion Chase (not a complete no-hoper) rather than here. He looks tailor-made for this race, and I think it's an opportunity missed - both for me and connections.

I had a haymaker bet on The Nightingale at a big price, and whilst he shortened-up (to 40's :lol:), I'm not even sure if he's still in the race.

A couple of pals have nice prices about Kalahari King, and one is very strong on Poquelin, and I think they both have live bets - but I'm not keen to back either myself.

It's a completely unfathomable mystery, wrapped in an inscrutably-opaque enigma.

With a big shite on top. :D
 
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I think JYVoyle needs soft ground and easy lead, this year has been out of form and I dont think she has a chance in the Festival.
 
You've got her form upside down. Her best run came on the best ground she's encountered.
 
granger said:
Riverside misses out. Hairline fracture to his pelvis
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That's three ante-post bets down in four days. Keys, Diamond Harry and now Riverside Theatre. Be very afraid if you've backed Oscars Well, Master Minded or Grands Crus - announcements imminent.
 
Shadow Leader said:
I can't be having that - I think Somersby will go very close in the Queen Mother.
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Last year I remember thinking that Somersby was sure to run well (in the Arkle) and had to be at least placed. Consequently he featured in several of my each-way doubles and trebles. This year I'm thinking again that he can't run badly, although with the likes of Master Minded, Big Zeb, Woolcombe Folly and Sizing Europe lining up, they can't all be in the frame.
 
I think there is great value in going through some of the races, even at this late stage, and trying to understand where the market is wrong where you think there are several horses near the head of the market who won't run, and the Ryanair is a good example of this.

Horses at the head of the market:
Poquelin - Likely runner. Great chance.
Kalahari King - Likely runner. Perhaps the biggest joke of a price of any horse running next week. His last few races have seen him beaten 22L, 16L (flat race), 31L, 12L, 8L, Fell, 9L. He is also 10 so no real indication he should be getting better. This is definitely not the profile of a second favourite for a Grade 1.
Tranquil Sea - Likely runner. Lovely horse but ground a big worry. Very short after how he ran in this last season.
J'y Vole - Likely runner. Lovely mare. Would definitely have finished ahead of Poquelin, and could have troubled winner with less interference last year. Should run a huge race again and ground should suit. Overpriced.
Albertas Run - rumours he goes for the Gold Cup.
Golden silver - likely runner in the QMCC.
Weird Al - no idea.
Kempes - likely runner in the Gold Cup.
The Nightingale - no idea, but would have thought very unlikely runner.
Captain Cee Bee - will run in the QMCC
Gauvain - exposed as below Grade 1 standard; easily dismissed by Riverside Theatre last time out.

This covers all the horse below 20/1. The only horse bigger than this that could interest me is Hey big spender, but I don't know where they plan to run him.

So, if the above is correct (please let me know if you know something I don't re running plans), of the horses currently priced under 20/1, only 5 are likely to run. Of these 5, I am happy to dismiss Kalahari King and Gauvain from the equation for reasons given above.

This then leaves me with a shortlist of (with best prices):
Poquelin 7/2
Tranquil Sea 6/1
J'y Vole 12/1

These three take out 44% of the market, yet I think they represent around an 80% chance of winning the race.

J'y Vole is the obvious one to back, each way, and I would then consider adding at least one of the other 2, with perhaps the other as a small bet to cover the other 2.

Any thoughts?
 
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Tranquil Sea should be closer in price to Poquelin. Lost money on this race already with Riverside Theatre's injury but have 8s about the Irish horse.

If Somersby runs he is by far the most likely winner though en route to the 2012 Gold Cup Imperial Commander style.
 
Ryanair Chase Grade 2 2m 5f - my notes

Terrific race in prospect. Previous Cheltenham winners win this. Older horses do fine. Concentrate on first four in betting. Kalahari King has been my long-term fancy for this. Somersby would be a danger to all if lining up here in preference to the Champion Chase. Slight preference for Poquelin, however.

Shortlist:
Poquelin 8
Tranquil Sea 9
Alberta’s Run 10
Golden Silver 9
Kalahari King 10
J’y Vole 8
Gauvain 9
Somersby 7

Selection: 1) Poquelin 2) Somersby 3) Kalahari King e.w. 4) Tranquil Sea 5) J’y Vole
 
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Nice piece Hamm. You have summed it up pretty well. I know your a fan of the mare but would you not be worried that she couldn't beat Follow the Plan off level weights the last day and getting 5lbs off Roberto Goldback?
 
Euronymous said:
I really don't understand how anyone could prefer Poquelin to Tranquil Sea in this race given the prices.
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My ante-post portfolio is designed to recoup value. I'm starting to look for actual winners now though. I prefer Poquelin to Tranquil Sea with regard to finishing order in the race. It is the order I'm concentrating on now and will do my best to secure the best prices still available on those I fancy as actual winners.
 
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